Report: War with Hamas to Cost Israel Over $50 Bln

A Palestinian woman collects tree branches amid a shortage of fuel and cooking gas in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip as the conflict continues between Israel and Hamas. (Reuters)
A Palestinian woman collects tree branches amid a shortage of fuel and cooking gas in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip as the conflict continues between Israel and Hamas. (Reuters)
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Report: War with Hamas to Cost Israel Over $50 Bln

A Palestinian woman collects tree branches amid a shortage of fuel and cooking gas in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip as the conflict continues between Israel and Hamas. (Reuters)
A Palestinian woman collects tree branches amid a shortage of fuel and cooking gas in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip as the conflict continues between Israel and Hamas. (Reuters)

Israel's war in the Gaza Strip will cost as much as 200 billion shekels ($51 billion), the Calcalist financial newspaper reported on Sunday, citing preliminary Finance Ministry figures.

The daily said the estimate, equal to 10% of gross domestic product, was premised on the war lasting between eight to 12 months; on it being limited to Gaza, without full participation by Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iran, or Yemen; and on some 350,000 Israelis drafted as military reservists returning to work soon.

Calcalist said half of the cost would be in defense expenses that amount to some 1 billion shekels a day. Another 40-60 billion shekels would come from a loss of revenue, 17-20 billion for compensation for businesses, and 10-20 billion shekels for rehabilitation.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has previously said Israel's government was preparing an economic aid package for those impacted by Palestinian attacks that will be "bigger and broader" than during the COVID-19 pandemic.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the state was committed to helping everyone affected.

"My directive is clear: Open the taps and channel funds to whoever needs them," he said without giving figures. "Just like we did during COVID. In the past decade, we have built here a very strong economy, and even if the war exacts economic prices from us, as it is doing, we will pay them without hesitation."

In the wake of the war, S&P cut its outlook for Israel's rating to "negative", while Moody's and Fitch put Israel's ratings on review for possible downgrade.

The financial toll is already severe. Israeli stocks are the world’s worst performers since fighting erupted. The main index in Tel Aviv is down 15% in dollar terms, equivalent to almost $25 billion, according to Bloomberg.

The shekel has slumped to its weakest level since 2012 — despite the central bank announcing an unprecedented $45 billion package to defend it — and is heading for its worst yearly performance this century. The cost of hedging against further losses has soared.

Spending by households has collapsed, dealing a major shock to the consumer sector that accounts for about half of gross domestic product.

Private consumption fell by nearly a third in the days after the war broke out, relative to an average week in 2023, according to the Shva payments-system clearinghouse. Expenditure on items such as leisure and entertainment plunged as much as 70%.

By one measure, the decline in credit-card purchases was more dire than what Israel experienced at the height of the pandemic in 2020, according to Tel Aviv-based Bank Leumi.

"Entire industries and their offshoots cannot work," said Roee Cohen, head of a federation of small businesses. "Most employers have already decided to place staff on unpaid leave, affecting hundreds of thousands of workers."

Israel’s central bank downgraded its outlook for the economy on Oct. 23, but still forecasts growth in excess of 2% this year and next — assuming the conflict is contained.

Even as some construction sites reopen, many workers are missing. The industry is heavily reliant on 80,000 Palestinians living in the West Bank, an area that’s been under a security lockdown since mid-September and where unrest has grown since Israel’s airstrikes and near-total blockade on Gaza began.

A halt in construction and real estate, which contribute 6% to Israel’s tax revenues, will stunt government income and could spark a renewed price surge in a housing market that’s been among the most expensive in Europe and the Middle East in recent years, according to Bloomberg.

About 15% of Israel’s tech workforce has been called up for reserve duty, estimates Avi Hasson, chief executive officer of Startup Nation Central, a non-profit group that tracks the industry. Those numbers are even higher at startups, which tend to employ younger workers, he said.

Lior Wayn, CEO of Mica, an artificial intelligence firm specializing in mammography analysis, said he’s trying to keep operations as normal as possible after several employees were affected by the attacks.

Among 500 high-tech companies surveyed last week, nearly half reported a cancellation or delay of an investment agreement. Among the respondents that include locally-owned and multinational businesses, over 70% said significant projects are being postponed or scrapped.

Even as companies say they are learning to adapt, the plight of many suggests the crisis will leave long-lasting scars across Israel’s economy.



The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
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The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)

Syria faces significant challenges as discussions intensify about the post-Bashar al-Assad era, particularly in securing the necessary revenues for the Syrian interim government to meet the country’s needs and ensure its sustainability. The widespread destruction of the economy and infrastructure poses a dual challenge: rebuilding the nation while stimulating economic activity and ensuring sufficient financial resources for governance.

Currently, the interim government relies heavily on international and regional support during the transitional phase. Donor countries are expected to provide financial and technical assistance to help rebuild institutions and alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people.

However, as the country transitions, external support alone will not suffice. The government must identify sustainable revenue sources, such as managing natural resources, imposing taxes, and encouraging foreign investments.

Opportunities from the Syrian Diaspora

The Syrian diaspora is seen as a significant economic resource, contributing through remittances or involvement in reconstruction projects. However, realizing these opportunities requires the establishment of strong, transparent institutions, effective resource management, and a clear strategic plan to rebuild trust with both local and international communities.

Securing revenues for the interim government is not merely a financial challenge but also a test of its ability to lead Syria toward stability and prosperity.

Securing Economic Resources

Nasser Zuhair, head of the Economic and Diplomatic Affairs Unit at the European Policy Organization, stated that the interim government, currently led by Mohammed al-Bashir, may replicate its revenue-generating models from Idlib. Resources in Idlib were drawn from temporary measures that are insufficient for sustaining a national economy like Syria’s.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Zuhair explained that these resources included taxation, fuel trade with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled areas, international aid for displaced persons in Idlib, remittances from the Syrian diaspora, and cross-border trade facilitated by Turkiye.

“The interim government believes that sanctions relief is a matter of months, after which it can begin to establish a sustainable economy. For now, it will rely on the same resources and strategies used in Idlib and other controlled areas,” Zuhair added.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the former regime’s reliance on illicit revenues, such as drug trafficking and Captagon production—estimated to account for 25% of government revenues—the interim government has several potential avenues for generating revenue.

International Aid

Zuhair emphasized that cross-border humanitarian aid indirectly supports local economies. “The current government understands that international and regional aid will be substantial in the coming period, particularly for refugee repatriation and infrastructure development,” he noted.

He added that efforts to secure funding from the Brussels Conference, which allocates about $7 billion annually to support Syria, will be critical. Strengthening ties with regional and European countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Germany, and the UK, is also a priority. However, securing such aid depends on establishing a political framework where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) does not dominate governance.

He further noted that international and regional support will likely remain a key revenue source for the interim government, including humanitarian and developmental aid from organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank.

Taxes and Tariffs

Zuhair highlighted taxes and tariffs as essential components of the government’s revenue strategy. This includes taxing local economic activities, customs duties on cross-border trade, and fair taxes on merchants and industrialists in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo.

“The government can also impose income, corporate, and property taxes while improving border management to maximize revenue from customs and tariffs,” he added.

Agriculture and Natural Resources

Syria’s vast and fertile agricultural lands present an opportunity for revenue generation, Zuhair underlined, explaining that taxes on agricultural products could contribute to state income. However, this sector faces logistical challenges and high production costs. By directing the agricultural sector toward self-sufficiency, the government could reduce dependence on imports and create surplus revenue, he remarked.

Additionally, managing natural resources such as oil and gas could provide a significant revenue stream if the government gains control over resource-rich areas like northeastern Syria, the official noted.

Reconstruction

Reconstruction presents another potential revenue source. International companies could be encouraged to invest in rebuilding efforts in exchange for fees or taxes. Public-private partnerships with local and foreign firms in sectors such as infrastructure and housing could also generate significant funds.

Remittances from the Diaspora

Zuhair stressed the importance of remittances from Syrians abroad, estimating that these transfers could reach $2 billion annually by 2025. Encouraging the diaspora to send funds to support family members and rebuild properties will be a key priority for the government.

Domestic Investments

The interim government has shown its ability to attract domestic investments in real estate, industry, commerce, and agriculture, despite international sanctions. According to Zuhair, leveraging Türkiye as an international gateway, the government could expand this model across Syria, taking advantage of the challenging economic conditions left by the previous regime to draw reasonable investments in its first year.

Tourism and Small Businesses

Revitalizing the tourism sector could directly contribute to revenue, he added, noting that restoring historical and cultural sites, once security and stability are achieved, will attract visitors and generate income.

In addition, encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises will help revive the economy and create jobs, Zuhair emphasized, pointing that supporting manufacturing industries could provide a sustainable revenue stream.