S&P Expects Qatar’s Economy to Slow Down by 2% in 2023

A model of an LNG tanker appears in front of the Qatari flag in this illustration taken on May 19, 2022. (Reuters)

Doha: Asharq Al Awsat

08:15-9 November 2023 AD ـ 26 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1445 AH

Doha: Asharq Al Awsat

08:15-9 November 2023 AD ـ 26 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1445 AH

S&P Expects Qatar’s Economy to Slow Down by 2% in 2023

A model of an LNG tanker appears in front of the Qatari flag in this illustration taken on May 19, 2022. (Reuters)

Qatar’s economy is expected to slow down by 2 percent for the remainder of 2023, says S&P Global Ratings. This after it grew by 5 percent in 2022, boosted by the country’s hosting of the World Cup.

Despite the dip this year, Qatar will bounce back in 2023, thanks to a better investment climate. Its growth will also be impacted by increases in hydrocarbon production in line with the North Field Expansion (NFE), according to the Arab World Press.

S&P’s ratings report projects Qatar will remain one of the largest exporters of LNG globally. Thanks to plans to increase LNG production capacity by 64 percent, to 126 million tons per year (mtpa) from 77 million, Qatar will continue to be a major player in the LNG industry between 2025 and 2027.

Customers who have shunned Russian-produced gas, particularly those from Europe, will continue to push the demand higher for Qatar’s LNG and will increase by 30 percent by 202-2027.

According to S&P, Qatar derives about 40 percent of its GDP, 80 percent of government revenue, and 90 percent of exports from the hydrocarbon sector. As such, its credit profile is vulnerable to volatility in oil prices, to which most of its gas revenues are linked.

S&P team’s forecasts are based on the expectation that the Brent oil price will average about $82 per barrel (/bbl) in 2023 and $85 bbl thereafter.

“We also project the general government budget will remain in surplus, averaging 4 percent of GDP through 2026”.

Qatar’s current account will have an average surplus of about 20 percent of GDP annually over the next three years.

IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Asharq Al Awsat

08:21-7 November 2026 AD ـ 27 Jumada Al-Ula 1448 AH

Asharq Al Awsat

08:21-7 November 2026 AD ـ 27 Jumada Al-Ula 1448 AH

IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.

Business

World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

10:22-6 November 2026 AD ـ 26 Jumada Al-Ula 1448 AH

World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.

Business

Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)

Asharq Al Awsat

08:55-6 November 2026 AD ـ 26 Jumada Al-Ula 1448 AH

Asharq Al Awsat

08:55-6 November 2026 AD ـ 26 Jumada Al-Ula 1448 AH

Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)

Copper dropped on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly drop in London since March, as a rout in technology stocks battered markets.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.3% at $13,663 a metric ton by 0700 GMT. That placed it on track to fall 3.44% in the week, Reuters said.

The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.08% to 106,830 yuan ($16,018.17) a ton.

The weakness reflects worries over AI investment, ‌with copper increasingly ‌influenced by "sentiment towards data center expansion," said ‌Craig ⁠Lang, principal analyst ⁠at CRU.

Technology shares were battered after Democratic wins in the US midterms fueled concerns that new regulatory oversight could cap the AI buildout.

On the other hand, supply constraints cushioned copper's decline.

"I would be cautious about calling this a sustained correction, given ongoing mine supply challenges and exceptionally tight ⁠metal availability outside the US," Lang said.

Copper stocks ‌in SHFE-monitored warehouses <CU-STX-SGH> fell by ‌over 24% this week to just 33,848 tons — the lowest ‌in almost three years. The closely watched Yangshan copper ‌premium <SMM-CUYP-CN>, a gauge of appetite for imports into key consumer China, increased to $210 a ton on Thursday, matching its record high.

Smelters in the country are facing a double squeeze of negative treatment ‌charges and lower sulfuric acid prices.

Meanwhile, warehouse inventories outside the US have been drawn ⁠down as ⁠material was pulled into the country ahead of a potential tariff on imports of refined copper.

"These physical constraints should provide some support against weaker investor sentiment," Lang said.

Among LME metals, aluminium lost 0.54%, zinc lost 1.42%, lead lost 0.45%, nickel dipped 0.23% and tin gained 0.83%.

On the SHFE, aluminium nudged down only 0.04%, zinc lost 1.35%, lead was little changed, down only 0.03%, nickel rose 2.14% and tin dropped 3.45%.

SHFE inventories were down across the board this week, led by sharp drops in aluminium <AL-STX-SGH> and lead <PB-STX-SGH>.

S&P Expects Qatar’s Economy to Slow Down by 2% in 2023

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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

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