IMF Says Staff Agreement with Ukraine Could Allow $900 Mln Disbursement

The Parkovyi footbridge spanning over Dnieper river is illuminated in the evening in Kyiv, Ukraine, 10 November 2023, amid the Russian invasion.  EPA/SERGEY DOLZHENKO
The Parkovyi footbridge spanning over Dnieper river is illuminated in the evening in Kyiv, Ukraine, 10 November 2023, amid the Russian invasion. EPA/SERGEY DOLZHENKO
TT

IMF Says Staff Agreement with Ukraine Could Allow $900 Mln Disbursement

The Parkovyi footbridge spanning over Dnieper river is illuminated in the evening in Kyiv, Ukraine, 10 November 2023, amid the Russian invasion.  EPA/SERGEY DOLZHENKO
The Parkovyi footbridge spanning over Dnieper river is illuminated in the evening in Kyiv, Ukraine, 10 November 2023, amid the Russian invasion. EPA/SERGEY DOLZHENKO

The International Monetary Fund on Friday announced a staff-level agreement with Ukraine on updated economic and financial policies, paving the way for a $900 million disbursement from its $15.6 billion lending program once approved by the board.
According to Reuters, the global lender said its executive board was expected to consider the agreement in coming weeks.
It said Ukraine met all quantitative performance criteria set for the end of June, and indicative targets for the end of September, as well as most of the structural benchmarks set under the IMF's Extended Fund Facility program.
The IMF said the Ukrainian economy continued to show "remarkable resilience" despite Russia's invasion in February 2022, and said recent economic developments pointed to a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in 2023 and continued growth in 2024, as well as substantial disinflation.
"Program performance has been broadly on track despite the extremely challenging backdrop," Gavin Gray, the IMF official who led discussions with Ukrainian officials in Poland from Nov. 6-10, said in a statement.
He said IMF staff had upgraded their forecast for real GDP growth in 2023 to 4.5% from the previous range of 1% to 3%, but expected growth to soften to a range of 3% to 4% in 2024.
“The war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating impact on the population and the economy as attacks on critical infrastructure and air strikes continue countrywide," he said.
Gray said Ukraine's fiscal deficit remained very high, reflecting the economic and social cost of the war, which left it with large, ongoing financing needs.



China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
TT

China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.