China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.



Vision 2030 Progress Accelerates Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth

The Saudi capital Riyadh. SPA
The Saudi capital Riyadh. SPA
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Vision 2030 Progress Accelerates Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth

The Saudi capital Riyadh. SPA
The Saudi capital Riyadh. SPA

Saudi Arabia is nearing the end of the second phase of its Vision 2030 plan (2021-2025), a period that has seen strong growth and expanding opportunities across multiple sectors, with key economic indicators reflecting the Kingdom’s progress.

Performance data for 2024 shows that Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is firmly on course to meet its Vision 2030 targets, with a significant number of metrics exceeding initial projections.

According to the latest figures, 93% of the tracked indicators have been either fully or partially achieved. A total of 299 indicators have met their goals entirely.

Meanwhile, data on Vision 2030 initiatives show that 85% have either been completed or remain on schedule, with 674 initiatives fully implemented and another 596 progressing according to plan, out of a total of 1,502 active initiatives.

Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to expand in 2024, with real non-oil GDP rising by 3.9% year-on-year, driven by a 4.3% increase in non-oil sectors. The non-oil private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also posted a strong performance, climbing to 58.1 points in the fourth quarter.

The Kingdom’s unemployment rate among Saudi citizens fell to a record low of 7% in 2024, achieving the Vision 2030 target six years ahead of schedule, compared to 12.3% in 2016.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia maintained inflation at 1.7% by the end of 2024, one of the lowest rates among G20 nations, supported by balanced economic policies.

Boosting Competitiveness

Saudi Arabia advanced to 16th place in the 2024 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, up from 36th in 2017, reflecting ongoing reforms to improve the business environment.

Global credit rating agencies also reaffirmed their confidence in the Kingdom’s economic outlook. Moody’s maintained Saudi Arabia’s rating at “A1” with a stable outlook, Fitch Ratings assigned it “A+” and S&P Global rated the Kingdom at “A/A-1.”

A Vibrant Society and Ambitious Nation

Saudi Arabia recorded major achievements on the social and cultural fronts. The number of UNESCO World Heritage sites in the Kingdom rose to eight, reaching the Vision 2030 target ahead of schedule.

The number of foreign Umrah pilgrims hit a record 16.92 million in 2024, surpassing the year’s target of 11.3 million.

Homeownership among Saudi families reached 65.4% in 2024, exceeding the year's target of 64%.

In digital governance, Saudi Arabia climbed to sixth place globally in the United Nations E-Government Development Index, rising 25 spots and nearing its Vision 2030 goal of fifth place.

Volunteerism also surged, with the number of volunteers exceeding 1.2 million, surpassing the Vision 2030 target of one million volunteers and reflecting a growing culture of civic engagement.

Positive Growth Outlook

International institutions forecast a strong outlook for Saudi Arabia’s economy in 2025.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects growth of 3.8%, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects 3% growth, and the World Bank forecasts an expansion of 3.4%. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance projects a higher growth rate of 4.6%.

The sustained economic momentum and rapid transformation under Vision 2030 have strengthened Saudi Arabia’s position as an attractive investment destination and a rising hub for promising opportunities.