China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.



Oil Heads for Second Weekly Loss on Lingering Oversupply Concerns

Panamanian-flagged Caribbean Glory vessel with a capacity of 2 million barrels of oil, loads crude oil at a TLU (Tanker Loading Unit) in the Gulf of Morrosquillo, operated by Cenit, owned by Ecopetrol, in Covenas, Colombia October 1, 2025. REUTERS/Nelson Bocanegra
Panamanian-flagged Caribbean Glory vessel with a capacity of 2 million barrels of oil, loads crude oil at a TLU (Tanker Loading Unit) in the Gulf of Morrosquillo, operated by Cenit, owned by Ecopetrol, in Covenas, Colombia October 1, 2025. REUTERS/Nelson Bocanegra
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Oil Heads for Second Weekly Loss on Lingering Oversupply Concerns

Panamanian-flagged Caribbean Glory vessel with a capacity of 2 million barrels of oil, loads crude oil at a TLU (Tanker Loading Unit) in the Gulf of Morrosquillo, operated by Cenit, owned by Ecopetrol, in Covenas, Colombia October 1, 2025. REUTERS/Nelson Bocanegra
Panamanian-flagged Caribbean Glory vessel with a capacity of 2 million barrels of oil, loads crude oil at a TLU (Tanker Loading Unit) in the Gulf of Morrosquillo, operated by Cenit, owned by Ecopetrol, in Covenas, Colombia October 1, 2025. REUTERS/Nelson Bocanegra

Oil prices rose on Friday but remained on track for a second consecutive weekly loss after three days of declines on worries about excess supply and slowing US demand.

Brent crude futures rose 50 cents, or 0.8%, to $63.88 a barrel by 1243 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 51 cents, or 0.9%, at $59.94.

Both benchmarks are poised to register weekly declines of more than 1.5% as leading global producers raise output.

"The market continues to weigh a rising oil surplus against mixed macro," said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye, Reuters reported.

An unexpected US inventory build of 5.2 million barrels reignited oversupply fears this week, said IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore.

US crude stocks rose more than expected on higher imports and reduced refining activity while gasoline and distillate inventories declined, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Concern over the effects of the longest government shutdown in US history also pressured oil prices.

The Trump administration has ordered flight reductions at major airports because of a shortage of air traffic controllers while private reports are pointing to a weaker US labor market in October.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, decided on Sunday to increase output slightly in December. However, the group also paused further increases for the first quarter of next year, wary of a supply glut.

European and US sanctions on Russia and Iran, meanwhile, are disrupting supplies to the world's largest importers, China and India, providing some support for global markets.

China's crude imports in October rose 2.3% from September and were up 8.2% from a year earlier at 48.36 million tons, customs data showed, against a backdrop of high utilisation rates at refineries in the world's largest oil importer.

"China kept importing elevated amounts of crude in October," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "That move keeps those barrels away from the OECD, where inventories remain low."

Swiss commodities trader Gunvor said on Thursday that it had withdrawn its proposal to buy the foreign assets of Russian energy company Lukoil after the US Treasury called it Russia's "puppet" and signalled that Washington opposed the deal.

"Gunvor scrapping its Lukoil assets purchase suggests the US is maintaining its maximum pressure campaign against Russia, and potential strict enforcement of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil," said Vandana Hari at oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.


China Announces 1-year Suspension of Expanded Rare Earth Export Controls

A glass jar containing the rare earth metal Terbium (L) is pictured inside the storage room of Tradium, a company specialised in trading rare earths, in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on November 4, 2025. (Photo by Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP)
A glass jar containing the rare earth metal Terbium (L) is pictured inside the storage room of Tradium, a company specialised in trading rare earths, in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on November 4, 2025. (Photo by Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP)
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China Announces 1-year Suspension of Expanded Rare Earth Export Controls

A glass jar containing the rare earth metal Terbium (L) is pictured inside the storage room of Tradium, a company specialised in trading rare earths, in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on November 4, 2025. (Photo by Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP)
A glass jar containing the rare earth metal Terbium (L) is pictured inside the storage room of Tradium, a company specialised in trading rare earths, in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on November 4, 2025. (Photo by Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP)

China suspended an array of export control measures it imposed on October 9, including expanded curbs on some rare earths materials and equipment, as well as lithium battery materials and super-hard materials, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Friday.

The suspensions were effective immediately and would apply through November 10, 2026, the ministry said.

The announcement confirmed and formalized an agreement reached after US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hammered out a trade truce last month.

The White House and China's Commerce Ministry had both said such an announcement was forthcoming.


FAO: World Food Prices Fall for 2nd Consecutive Month in October

People wait in line outside Adams County Emergency Food Bank for their completed grocery cart, weeks into the continuing US government shutdown, in Commerce City, Colorado, US October 31, 2025.  REUTERS/Mark Makela
People wait in line outside Adams County Emergency Food Bank for their completed grocery cart, weeks into the continuing US government shutdown, in Commerce City, Colorado, US October 31, 2025. REUTERS/Mark Makela
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FAO: World Food Prices Fall for 2nd Consecutive Month in October

People wait in line outside Adams County Emergency Food Bank for their completed grocery cart, weeks into the continuing US government shutdown, in Commerce City, Colorado, US October 31, 2025.  REUTERS/Mark Makela
People wait in line outside Adams County Emergency Food Bank for their completed grocery cart, weeks into the continuing US government shutdown, in Commerce City, Colorado, US October 31, 2025. REUTERS/Mark Makela

World food commodity prices fell for a second consecutive month in October, driven largely by ample global supplies, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 126.4 points in October, down from a revised 128.5 in September.

The index was down slightly compared to its October 2024 level and stood 21.1% below its March 2022 peak.

In a separate report, FAO forecast 2025 world cereal production at a record 2.990 billion metric tons, after projecting 2.971 billion tons last month.

The latest outlook was up 4.4% from 2024 output.