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Oil Gains on China Economic Data, Strong Demand Forecast

FILE PHOTO: A worker walks at a Tullow Oil explorational drilling site in Lokichar, Turkana County, Kenya, February 8, 2018. REUTERS/Baz Ratner/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker walks at a Tullow Oil explorational drilling site in Lokichar, Turkana County, Kenya, February 8, 2018. REUTERS/Baz Ratner/File Photo
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Oil Gains on China Economic Data, Strong Demand Forecast

FILE PHOTO: A worker walks at a Tullow Oil explorational drilling site in Lokichar, Turkana County, Kenya, February 8, 2018. REUTERS/Baz Ratner/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker walks at a Tullow Oil explorational drilling site in Lokichar, Turkana County, Kenya, February 8, 2018. REUTERS/Baz Ratner/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as China's factory output and retail sales beat expectations, a day after the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil demand growth forecast for this year.

Brent futures rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.65 a barrel by 0647 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced 15 cents, also 0.2%, to $78.41, Reuters reported.

China's October economic activity perked up as industrial output grew at a faster pace and retail sales growth beat expectations, an encouraging sign for the world's second-largest economy.

The IEA joined the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) in raising oil demand growth forecast for this year, despite projections of slower economic growth in many major countries.

"It (IEA) sees oil demand remaining healthy. It raised its forecast due to better-than-expected consumption in China," ANZ Research said in a note on Wednesday.

A softer US inflation reading that bolstered expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next spring sent the US dollar down to a two-and-a-half-month low against a basket of other currencies. A weaker dollar can boost oil demand by making crude cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its first oil inventory report in two weeks on Wednesday. EIA did not release a storage report last week due to a systems upgrade.
For the week ended Nov. 10, analysts forecast energy firms added about 1.8 million barrels of crude into US stockpiles, according to a Reuters poll, in line with from the American Petroleum Institute out Tuesday.

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IMF Urges US to Curb Deficit, Tackle its ‘Ever-Increasing’ Debt Burden

Gita Gopinath, IMF’s first deputy managing director (X) 
Gita Gopinath, IMF’s first deputy managing director (X) 
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IMF Urges US to Curb Deficit, Tackle its ‘Ever-Increasing’ Debt Burden

Gita Gopinath, IMF’s first deputy managing director (X) 
Gita Gopinath, IMF’s first deputy managing director (X) 

A top IMF official has called on the US to reduce its fiscal deficit and tackle its “ever-increasing” debt burden at a time of rising concerns about President Donald Trump’s plans for sweeping tax cuts.

“The US fiscal deficits are too large and they need to be brought down,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, told the Financial Times this week.

She also warned that the world’s biggest economy was still affected by “very elevated” trade policy uncertainty despite “positive developments”, such as the Trump administration dialing back tariffs on China.

Gopinath’s comments came after Moody’s stripped the US of its last remaining pristine triple A credit rating owing to concerns over the country’s growing debt.

Trump’s proposal to prolong his 2017 tax cuts beyond this year has added to those worries and prompted unease among investors.

The administration says the cuts — combined with deregulation — will pay for themselves with higher growth, but neither Moody’s nor financial markets are convinced.

The rating agency said last week that the proposed legislation, which Trump calls “the big, beautiful bill”, would raise US deficits from 6.4% last year to just under 9% by 2035.

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told NBC on Sunday that the Moody’s downgrade was “a lagging indicator”, blaming the fiscal situation on the Biden administration.

He added that the administration was “determined to bring the spending down and grow the economy.”

Bessent previously said he would cut the deficit to 3% by the end of Trump’s term.

But Gopinath noted that US debt to GDP was “ever-increasing”, adding: “It should be that we have fiscal policy in the US that is consistent with bringing debt to GDP down over time.”

The federal government debt held by the public amounted to 98% of GDP in fiscal 2024, compared with 73% a decade earlier, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Although the IMF said last month that it expected the US fiscal deficit to fall this year as long as tariff revenues grew, those projections did not account for Trump’s tax bill, which is winding its way through Congress.

Gopinath added that Bessent had been right to make a “clear call” to bring down fiscal deficits.

Trump is pressuring Republicans in the House of Representatives, where he has a slim majority, to support the legislation, arguing that doing otherwise would increase voters’ tax bills.

Deficit worries and Moody’s downgrade have driven the dollar lower and pushed prices down and yields up in the Treasury market.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield on Monday rose to 5.04%, its highest level since 2023.

A bigger deficit means the government will have to sell more bonds at a time when foreign and domestic investors have begun to question the stability of the US market.

The IMF in April cut its US growth forecast by nearly a percentage point to 1.8 per cent in 2025, while dropping its global growth projection to 2.8%, as it incorporated the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Since then, Trump has announced sharp cuts to American levies, as China and the US agreed to slash respective tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days.