COP28 Sees Calls for Balance, Realism in Dealing with Energy File

Expo Dubai hosts the COP28 summit (Reuters)
Expo Dubai hosts the COP28 summit (Reuters)
TT

COP28 Sees Calls for Balance, Realism in Dealing with Energy File

Expo Dubai hosts the COP28 summit (Reuters)
Expo Dubai hosts the COP28 summit (Reuters)

As the negotiations in COP28 entered the heated stages, discrepancy between countries regarding the position on traditional fuels increased.
While Western states are pressing to adopt a position towards getting rid of fuel, another front appears to be resisting this course, and pushing towards a solution based on treating traditional fuels and the resulting emissions, in order to achieve balanced economic growth.
The latest trend is led by OPEC member states, and is approved by countries with developing or small economies. These countries indicate that their position does not stem from opposition to environmental and climate protection agendas, but rather from the fact that getting rid of traditional fuels will result in a major economic blow that the world will be unable to bear.
A number of officials told Asharq Al-Awsat that this position has nothing to do with the interests of oil producers alone, but rather with the wellbeing of other countries as well.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, an official from a sub-Saharan African country said: “We do not have sufficient development, and we barely produce electricity using gas and diesel... Now they are asking us to dispense with traditional fuel... Shall we live in the darkness? This is not a fair agreement.”
In the corridors of the conference, news was circulated about an internal memorandum from the OPEC secretariat dated Dec. 6, in which OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais called on the members of the organization to reject any agreement targeting fuel and not emissions.
“It seems that the undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences, as the draft decision still contains options on fossil fuels phase out," the letter said, as reported by Reuters.
The letter urged delegations at COP28 to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy i.e. fossil fuels rather than emissions.”
Although OPEC refused to comment on the matter, Al-Ghais stressed during a session on Wednesday evening the need to pay attention to the idea of tackling emissions, especially since it achieves good results “on the ground” and can lead to the same final results.
On Saturday, an OPEC official said on behalf of the organization’s Secretary-General that the COP28 summit must find “realistic methods” to reduce emissions that need to involve all “energies” and technologies.

 



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
TT

OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.