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Turkish Inflation Ends Year at Almost 64.8%, and Seen Rising Further 

People stroll at the main shopping and pedestrian street of Istiklal on New Year's eve in central Istanbul, Türkiye December 31, 2023. (Reuters)
People stroll at the main shopping and pedestrian street of Istiklal on New Year's eve in central Istanbul, Türkiye December 31, 2023. (Reuters)
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Turkish Inflation Ends Year at Almost 64.8%, and Seen Rising Further 

People stroll at the main shopping and pedestrian street of Istiklal on New Year's eve in central Istanbul, Türkiye December 31, 2023. (Reuters)
People stroll at the main shopping and pedestrian street of Istiklal on New Year's eve in central Istanbul, Türkiye December 31, 2023. (Reuters)

Türkiye’s annual inflation rate climbed to 64.77% in December, official data showed on Wednesday, sustaining an upward trend that is expected to continue in the coming months after a big rise in the minimum wage.

Month-on-month, consumer price inflation (CPI) was 2.93%, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, dipping from 3.28% in November. The measure has eased in recent months as sharp monetary tightening has begun to weigh.

A Reuters poll had shown that annual inflation was expected to rise to 65.1% in December, with monthly inflation seen at 3.1%. In November, annual inflation was 61.98%.

The biggest sectoral price rise in 2023 was shown by hotels and restaurants, up 93.2%, followed by education at 82.1%. Key food and non-alcoholic drinks prices rose 72.0% during the year.

After years of easy policy, the central bank pivoted in June and has since raised its key interest rate by 3,400 basis points to 42.5% to rein in inflation. The central bank said it will complete its tightening cycle as soon as possible.

The bank expects inflation to continue rising and to peak in May 2024 at around 70-75%, before declining to about 36% at the end of next year.

Economists say increased natural gas consumption in winter and the larger-than-expected minimum wage hike of 49% for 2024, which affects some 7 million workers, is expected to push inflation higher in the coming months.

"The underlying inflation trend improved slightly, and inflation expectations stabilized in the last months... Further fiscal stimulus ahead of local elections in March poses a clear upside risk to the central bank's inflation outlook," said Bartosz Sawicki, market analyst at Conotoxia fintech.

Inflation surged following a currency crisis at the end of 2021 and hit a 24-year peak of 85.51% in October 2022. Last year, the lira weakened some 37% against the dollar.

The lira had previously weakened 44% in 2021, and another 30% in 2022. Inflation fell to as low as 38.2% last year, partly due to base effects and a brief stable period for the lira.

The domestic producer price index was up 1.14% month-on-month in December for an annual rise of 44.22%, the data showed.

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Business

Asian Economies Weigh Impact of Fresh Trump Tariff Moves, Confusion

Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
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Asian Economies Weigh Impact of Fresh Trump Tariff Moves, Confusion

Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)

US trading partners in Asia started weighing fresh uncertainties on Saturday after President Donald Trump vowed to impose a new tariff on imports, hours after the Supreme Court struck down many of the sweeping levies he used to launch a global trade war.

The court's ruling invalidated a number of tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on Asian export powerhouses from China and South Korea to Japan and Taiwan, the world's largest chip maker and a key player in tech supply chains.

Within hours, Trump said he would impose a new 10% duty on US imports from all countries starting on Tuesday for an initial 150 days under a different law, prompting analysts to warn that more measures could follow, threatening more confusion for businesses and investors.

In Japan, a government spokesman said Tokyo "will carefully examine the content of this ruling and ‌the Trump administration's response ‌to it, and respond appropriately."

China, which is preparing to host Trump in ‌late ⁠March, has yet to ⁠formally comment or launch any counter moves with the country on an extended holiday. But a senior financial official in China-ruled Hong Kong described the US situation as a "fiasco".

Christopher Hui, Hong Kong's secretary for financial services and the treasury, Trump's new levy served to underscore Hong Kong's "unique trade advantages", Hui said.

"This shows the stability of Hong Kong's policies and our certainty ... it shows global investors the importance of predictability," Hui said at a media briefing on Saturday when asked how the new US tariff's would affect the city's economy.

Hong Kong operates as a separate customs territory from mainland China, a ⁠status that has shielded it from direct exposure to US tariffs targeting Chinese goods.

While ‌Washington has imposed duties on mainland exports, Hong Kong-made products have ‌generally faced lower tariff rates, allowing the city to maintain trade flows even as Sino-US tensions escalated.

Before the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump's ‌tariff push had strained Washington's diplomatic relations across Asia, particularly for export-reliant economies integrated into US-bound supply chains.

Friday's ruling ‌concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies.

Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated that by itself, the ruling cuts the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4% to 8.3%.

For those countries on higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and ‌India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, albeit to still-high levels.

In Taiwan, the government said it was monitoring the situation closely, noting that the US government ⁠had yet to determine how ⁠to fully implement its trade deals with many countries.

"While the initial impact on Taiwan appears limited, the government will closely monitor developments and maintain close communication with the US to understand specific implementation details and respond appropriately," a cabinet statement said.

Taiwan has signed two recent deals with the US - one was a Memorandum of Understanding last month that committed Taiwan to invest $250 billion and the second was signed this month to lowering reciprocal tariffs.

Analysts say the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's more aggressive tariff measures may offer little relief for the global economy. They warned of looming confusion as trading nations brace for moves by Trump to find other means of using levies to circumvent the ruling.

Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Nantapong Chiralerspong said the ruling might even benefit its exports as uncertainty drove a fresh round of "front loading", where shippers race to move goods to the US, fearing even higher tariffs.

In corporate disclosures tracked by Reuters, firms across the Asia-Pacific region reported financial hits, supply shifts and withdrawals as levies escalated through 2025 and early 2026.

Business

Brazil, India Eye Critical Minerals Deal as Leaders Meet

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
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Brazil, India Eye Critical Minerals Deal as Leaders Meet

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are set to meet in New Delhi on Saturday, seeking to boost cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths.

Brazil has the world's second-largest reserves of these elements, which are used in everything from electric vehicles, solar panels and smartphones to jet engines and guided missiles.

India, seeking to cut its dependence on top exporter China, has been expanding domestic production and recycling while scouting for new suppliers.

Lula, heading a delegation of more than a dozen ministers as well as business leaders, arrived in New Delhi on Wednesday for a global summit, reported AFP.

Officials have said that in talks with Modi on Saturday, the two leaders are expected to sign a memorandum on critical minerals and discuss efforts to increase trade links.

The world's most populous nation is already the 10th largest market for Brazilian exports, with bilateral trade topping $15 billion in 2025.

The two countries have set a trade target of $20 billion to be achieved by 2030.

With China holding a near-monopoly on rare earths production, some countries are seeking alternative sources.

Rishabh Jain, an expert with the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water think tank, said India's growing cooperation with Brazil on critical minerals complements recent supply chain engagements with the United States, France and the European Union.

While these partnerships grant India access to advanced technologies, finance and high-end processing capabilities, "Global South alliances are critical for securing diversified, on-ground resource access and shaping emerging rules of global trade", Jain told AFP.

- 'Challenges' -

Modi and Lula are also expected to discuss global economic headwinds and strains on multilateral trade systems after both of their countries were hit by US tariffs in 2025, prompting the two leaders to call for stronger cooperation.

Washington has since pledged to roll back duties on Indian goods under a trade deal announced earlier this month.

"Lula and Modi will have the opportunity to exchange views on... the challenges to multilateralism and international trade," said Brazilian diplomat Susan Kleebank, the secretary for Asia and the Pacific.

Brazil is India's biggest partner in Latin America.

Key Brazilian exports to India include sugar, crude oil, vegetable oils, cotton and iron ore.

Demand for iron ore has been driven by rapid infrastructure expansion and industrial growth in India, which is on track to become the world's fourth largest economy.

Brazilian firms are also expanding in the country, with Embraer and Adani Group announcing plans last month to build aircraft in India.

Lula addressed the AI Impact summit in Delhi on Thursday, calling for a multilateral and inclusive global governance framework for artificial intelligence.

He will travel on to South Korea for meetings with President Lee Jae Myung and to attend a business forum.

Business

Türkiye, Saudi Arabia Sign Comprehensive Power Purchase Agreement

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar attend the signing of a power purchase agreement between Türkiye and ACWA Power in Istanbul on Friday (photo from the Turkish minister’s account on X).
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar attend the signing of a power purchase agreement between Türkiye and ACWA Power in Istanbul on Friday (photo from the Turkish minister’s account on X).
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Türkiye, Saudi Arabia Sign Comprehensive Power Purchase Agreement

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar attend the signing of a power purchase agreement between Türkiye and ACWA Power in Istanbul on Friday (photo from the Turkish minister’s account on X).
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar attend the signing of a power purchase agreement between Türkiye and ACWA Power in Istanbul on Friday (photo from the Turkish minister’s account on X).

Türkiye’s Energy and Natural Resources Ministry signed a comprehensive power purchase agreement with Saudi energy giant ACWA Power to develop solar power plants and projects in Türkiye with major investments.

The agreement, signed in Istanbul on Friday, was attended by Türkiye’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud.

It includes the construction of two solar power plants in the Turkish provinces of Sivas and Karaman with a combined capacity of 2,000 megawatts and investments totaling $2 billion, as well as the implementation of large-scale solar projects with a total capacity of 5,000 megawatts in Türkiye.

Commenting on the agreement, Bayraktar said: “During our president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Riyadh on Feb. 3, we signed an intergovernmental agreement on renewable power plant projects with my Saudi counterpart, HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, which provides for total investments in solar and wind energy in Türkiye of 5,000 megawatts.”

“Today, we reinforced this cooperation by signing the agreement with ACWA Power in Istanbul. In the first phase of the project, two solar power plants with a total capacity of 2,000 megawatts will be built in Sivas and Karaman, with an investment of around $2 billion. This will add capacity to our grid to meet the electricity needs of 2.1 million households,” he added.

Bayraktar said on X that in Sivas, the agreed purchase price is 2.35 euro cents per kilowatt-hour, while in Karaman, electricity will be bought at a fixed price of 1.99 euro cents per kilowatt-hour, the lowest price recorded in Türkiye. The agreed prices will be valid for 25 years.

He said the projects, which are expected to make a significant contribution to the energy sector, require a minimum 50% local content ratio, adding that groundwork is targeted this year, operations are scheduled for 2028, and full production capacity will be reached as soon as possible.

In the second phase of the agreement, with a total capacity of 5,000 megawatts, “we aim to expand our cooperation with additional investments in solar and wind energy amounting to 3,000 megawatts,” Bayraktar said, expressing hope that the move would strengthen confidence in Türkiye’s renewable energy transition and investment climate and benefit the Turkish energy sector.

Two-phase plan

Construction under the first phase of ACWA Power’s investments in Türkiye is scheduled to begin in the first or second quarter of 2027, with electricity supply expected to start by mid-2028.

ACWA Power aims to sign an agreement with Türkiye on the second phase of its renewable energy investments before November.

The first-phase projects offer highly competitive electricity sale prices compared with other renewable power plants in Türkiye. In addition, the plants, valued at about $2 billion, will supply electricity to more than 2 million Turkish households.

A Turkish state-owned company will purchase the electricity generated by the plants for 30 years. During implementation, maximum use will be made of locally sourced equipment and services.

In recent years, Türkiye has sought to attract Gulf investments into its energy sector as it works to raise renewable power generation capacity to 120 gigawatts by 2035. Several previous attempts were not completed due to disagreements over financial valuations and pricing.

ACWA Power announced in June its intention to build two large solar power plants in Türkiye as part of a plan to invest billions of dollars in the Turkish energy sector.

Major investments

While the exact value of ACWA Power’s investment has not been disclosed, Türkiye said two years ago it was in talks with the company over projects worth up to $5 billion.

Türkiye’s Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek described the intergovernmental energy agreement signed during Erdogan’s visit to Riyadh as a major boost for foreign direct investment inflows into Türkiye.

He said the pace of foreign direct investment in Türkiye is accelerating, reflecting growing confidence in its economic program, adding that the inflow of $2 billion in foreign direct investment into renewable energy projects through the agreement with Saudi Arabia would accelerate the green transition, strengthen energy security, and structurally reduce dependence on energy imports.

ACWA Power’s portfolio, 44% owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, includes a gas-fired power plant in Türkiye. The company also expanded its solar energy projects in 2024 in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan.