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Moody's Warns of Potential Credit Impact in Middle East Amid Gaza Conflict

Smoke rises after Israeli airstrikes in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. (Environmental Protection Agency)
Smoke rises after Israeli airstrikes in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. (Environmental Protection Agency)
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Moody's Warns of Potential Credit Impact in Middle East Amid Gaza Conflict

Smoke rises after Israeli airstrikes in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. (Environmental Protection Agency)
Smoke rises after Israeli airstrikes in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. (Environmental Protection Agency)

Moody's Investor Services expected significant negative credit repercussions on all sovereign bodies in the Middle East if the military conflict in Gaza escalates into a multi-front confrontation.

The agency emphasized, however, that the credit impact if the conflict remains confined to Gaza, would be limited to the Middle East and North African governments (MENA).

"Geopolitical developments remain a key risk," stated Moody’s.

Moody's projects a GDP growth of 2.7% in MENA for 2024, a notable increase from the 1.1% recorded in 2023. Excluding the volatile growth associated with the oil and gas sector, the real GDP of the region is estimated to reach 3.1%, slightly down from the 3.4% observed in 2023.

The agency points out that economic activity in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, and Qatar is expected to benefit from implementing state-backed mega-projects. The growth of non-oil GDP in 2024 is forecasted to outpace levels observed in 2018 and 2019, excluding Egypt and Iraq.

“Moody’s outlook for sovereign creditworthiness in MENA is stable,” it added.

However, it noted that high-interest rates and restricted capital inflows in emerging markets could impede debt sustainability and limit foreign funding for sovereign bodies. This concern is particularly pertinent in the face of economic challenges in Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia.

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Saudi Budget Shows Continued Government Spending on Mega-Projects

King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Budget Shows Continued Government Spending on Mega-Projects

King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia’s third-quarter budget results this year reflect the government’s commitment to boosting spending on mega-projects while working to increase revenue and contain the budget deficit.
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan stressed that managing the deficit is a key priority. He outlined strategies to ensure sustainable debt management, including directing debt to high-return sectors and attracting domestic and foreign investments.
The Ministry of Finance reported a budget deficit of SAR 30.23 billion ($8.06 billion) in the third quarter, down 15.6% from the same period last year. This brought the total deficit for the first nine months of the year to SAR 57.96 billion.
Government Spending and Revenues
Government revenues grew 20% in the third quarter to SAR 309.21 billion ($82.4 billion), while spending rose 15% to SAR 339.44 billion.
Non-oil revenues increased 6% year-on-year to SAR 118.3 billion, though they were 16% lower than in the previous quarter. Oil revenues climbed 30% year-on-year to SAR 190.8 billion but dropped 10% from the second quarter.
As of the third quarter, Saudi Arabia’s actual revenues for 2024 reached SAR 956.233 billion ($254.9 billion), a 12% rise from 2023.
Saudi Arabia’s spending topped SAR 1 trillion ($266.6 billion) by the end of the third quarter, a 13% increase from SAR 898.3 billion ($239.5 billion) a year earlier. The budget deficit for this period reached SAR 57.96 billion ($15.4 billion).
Saudi Budget Outlook and Reserve Update
The Kingdom’s Finance Ministry expects 2024 revenues to reach SAR 1.172 trillion ($312.5 billion), slightly below last year’s SAR 1.212 trillion ($323.2 billion). Expenditures are projected at SAR 1.251 trillion ($333.6 billion), with a budget deficit of SAR 79 billion ($21 billion), close to last year’s SAR 80.9 billion ($21.5 billion). By the end of the third quarter, the general reserve balance stood at SAR 390 billion ($104 billion), with the current account at SAR 76.7 billion ($20.4 billion) and public debt at SAR 1.157 trillion ($308.7 billion).
Vision 2030 Projects, Economic Reforms
Shura Council member Fadhel al-Buainain attributed the spending increase to Vision 2030 projects and social welfare programs, noting a 6% rise in non-oil revenues and a 16% boost in oil revenues.
He stressed that these gains contribute to financial stability and diversification efforts.
Enhanced Services and Growth Sectors
Dr. Mohammed Makni, Assistant Professor of Finance & Investment at Imam Muhammad ibn Saud Islamic University, highlighted the government’s focus on improving health, education, and quality of life, which are part of Vision 2030 goals impacting citizen services.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Makni explained that Saudi Arabia’s recent expansionary spending aims to complete Vision 2030 projects.
He added that the third-quarter budget reflects positive growth across oil and non-oil activities, which have boosted revenues.
Economist Dr. Mohammed al-Qahtani pointed out that non-oil sectors and efficient spending helped reduce the third-quarter deficit.
He cited strong growth in tourism, culture, and entertainment as key contributors to non-oil revenues. Al-Qahtani expects continued improvement in the fourth quarter, especially if oil prices strengthen.