IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
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IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)

The IMF and World Bank warned on Monday that the Gaza war and the related attacks on shipping through the Red Sea pose threats to the global economy.

The Israel-Hamas war raging since October has already hit the Middle East and North Africa region's economy, said the International Monetary Fund's managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

Its knock-on effects could impact the world the longer the fighting drags on, Georgieva told the World Governments Summit, an annual gathering of business and political leaders in Dubai.

"I fear most a longevity of the conflict because, if it goes on and on, the risk of spillover goes up," she said.

"Right now we see a risk of spillover in the Suez Canal," she said, as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militias have attacked Red Sea shipping leading to the crucial maritime passage.

The Houthis say they are targeting what they consider Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, pushing some cargo carriers to take longer and more expensive routes to avoid attacks.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development warned late last month that the volume of commercial traffic passing through the Suez Canal had fallen more than 40 percent in the previous two months.

Georgieva said that if there are other "consequences in terms of where the fighting goes, it could be more problematic for the world as a whole".

On a personal note, she added that "as a woman, as a mother, grandmother... I pray for peace".

The Gaza Strip has been under intense Israeli assault for over four months, in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel.

Hamas's unprecedented attack resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel vowed to destroy the militant group and launched air strikes and a ground offensive that have killed at least 28,340 people, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.

Despite the war-related uncertainties, Georgieva said the IMF is "very confident that the world economy is now poised for this soft landing we have been dreaming of".

"I expect to see by mid-year interest rates going in the direction inflation has been going for the last year now," she said, when asked about interest rates being cut in leading economies.

Also speaking at the summit, World Bank President Ajay Banga said that "what's going on Gaza, but also the challenges of Ukraine... and the Red Sea" are among the top challenges to the global economic outlook.

"When you add these variables to what is already turning out to be probably the lowest growth of the last 55 years.... that's something we have to keep a close eye on," he said.



Exports from Libya's Hariga Oil Port Stop as Crude Supply Dries Up, Say Engineers

A general view of an oil terminal in Zueitina, west of Benghazi April 7, 2014. (Reuters)
A general view of an oil terminal in Zueitina, west of Benghazi April 7, 2014. (Reuters)
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Exports from Libya's Hariga Oil Port Stop as Crude Supply Dries Up, Say Engineers

A general view of an oil terminal in Zueitina, west of Benghazi April 7, 2014. (Reuters)
A general view of an oil terminal in Zueitina, west of Benghazi April 7, 2014. (Reuters)

The Libyan oil export port of Hariga has stopped operating due to insufficient crude supplies, two engineers at the terminal told Reuters on Saturday, as a standoff between rival political factions shuts most of the country's oilfields.

This week's flare-up in a dispute over control of the central bank threatens a new bout of instability in the North African country, a major oil producer that is split between eastern and western factions.

The eastern-based administration, which controls oilfields that account for almost all the country's production, are demanding western authorities back down over the replacement of the central bank governor - a key position in a state where control over oil revenue is the biggest prize for all factions.

Exports from Hariga stopped following the near-total shutdown of the Sarir oilfield, the port's main supplier, the engineers said.

Sarir normally produces about 209,000 barrels per day (bpd). Libya pumped about 1.18 million bpd in July in total.

Libya's National Oil Corporation NOC, which controls the country's oil resources, said on Friday the recent oilfield closures have caused the loss of approximately 63% of total oil production.