IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
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IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)

The IMF and World Bank warned on Monday that the Gaza war and the related attacks on shipping through the Red Sea pose threats to the global economy.

The Israel-Hamas war raging since October has already hit the Middle East and North Africa region's economy, said the International Monetary Fund's managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

Its knock-on effects could impact the world the longer the fighting drags on, Georgieva told the World Governments Summit, an annual gathering of business and political leaders in Dubai.

"I fear most a longevity of the conflict because, if it goes on and on, the risk of spillover goes up," she said.

"Right now we see a risk of spillover in the Suez Canal," she said, as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militias have attacked Red Sea shipping leading to the crucial maritime passage.

The Houthis say they are targeting what they consider Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, pushing some cargo carriers to take longer and more expensive routes to avoid attacks.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development warned late last month that the volume of commercial traffic passing through the Suez Canal had fallen more than 40 percent in the previous two months.

Georgieva said that if there are other "consequences in terms of where the fighting goes, it could be more problematic for the world as a whole".

On a personal note, she added that "as a woman, as a mother, grandmother... I pray for peace".

The Gaza Strip has been under intense Israeli assault for over four months, in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel.

Hamas's unprecedented attack resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel vowed to destroy the militant group and launched air strikes and a ground offensive that have killed at least 28,340 people, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.

Despite the war-related uncertainties, Georgieva said the IMF is "very confident that the world economy is now poised for this soft landing we have been dreaming of".

"I expect to see by mid-year interest rates going in the direction inflation has been going for the last year now," she said, when asked about interest rates being cut in leading economies.

Also speaking at the summit, World Bank President Ajay Banga said that "what's going on Gaza, but also the challenges of Ukraine... and the Red Sea" are among the top challenges to the global economic outlook.

"When you add these variables to what is already turning out to be probably the lowest growth of the last 55 years.... that's something we have to keep a close eye on," he said.



Oil Falls from Highest since October as Dollar Strengthens

People stand on the the pier with offshore oil and gas platform Esther in the distance on January 5, 2025 in Seal Beach, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
People stand on the the pier with offshore oil and gas platform Esther in the distance on January 5, 2025 in Seal Beach, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
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Oil Falls from Highest since October as Dollar Strengthens

People stand on the the pier with offshore oil and gas platform Esther in the distance on January 5, 2025 in Seal Beach, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
People stand on the the pier with offshore oil and gas platform Esther in the distance on January 5, 2025 in Seal Beach, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP

Oil prices dipped on Monday amid a strong US dollar ahead of key economic data by the US Federal Reserve and US payrolls later in the week.
Brent crude futures slid 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $76.23 a barrel by 0800 GMT after settling on Friday at its highest since Oct. 14.
US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 27 cents, or 0.4%, at $73.69 a barrel after closing on Friday at its highest since Oct. 11, Reuters reported.
Oil posted five-session gains previously with hopes of rising demand following colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere and more fiscal stimulus by China to revitalize its faltering economy.
However, the strength of the dollar is on investor's radar, Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, wrote in a report on Monday.
The dollar stayed close to a two-year peak on Monday. A stronger dollar makes it more expensive to buy the greenback-priced commodity.
Investors are also awaiting economic news for more clues on the Federal Reserve's rate outlook and energy consumption.
Minutes of the Fed's last meeting are due on Wednesday and the December payrolls report will come on Friday.
There are some future concerns about Iranian and Russian oil shipments as the potential for stronger sanctions on both producers looms.
The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude, two sources with knowledge of the matter said on Sunday.
Goldman Sachs expects Iran's production and exports to fall by the second quarter as a result of expected policy changes and tighter sanctions from the administration of incoming US President Donald Trump.
Output at the OPEC producer could drop by 300,000 barrels per day to 3.25 million bpd by second quarter, they said.
The US oil rig count, an indicator of future output, fell by one to 482 last week, a weekly report from energy services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.
Still, the global oil market is clouded by a supply surplus this year as a rise in non-OPEC supplies is projected by analysts to largely offset global demand increase, also with the possibility of more production in the US under Trump.