OPEC Maintains Global Oil Demand Forecasts for 2024

An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
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OPEC Maintains Global Oil Demand Forecasts for 2024

An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)

OPEC saw demand growth of 2.25 million bpd, unchanged from last month for 2024, noting that global oil demand will rise by 1.85 million bpd in 2025 to 106.21 million bpd.

In its monthly report, OPEC saw world economic growth of 2.7% and 2.9% in 2025, supported by the expectation of a continued easing in general inflation throughout this year and next.

"Global economic growth remains robust," OPEC said in the report.

"Further upside potential could materialize in all major OECD and non-OECD economies."

OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut for the first quarter took effect last month.

The OPEC report said that OPEC oil production fell by 350,000 bpd to 26.34 million bpd in January as the latest voluntary output cuts took effect.

OPEC raised its world oil demand forecasts for the medium and long term in its annual outlook published in October.

It expects world oil demand to reach 116 million bpd by 2045, around 6 million bpd higher than the previous year's report, with growth led by China, India, other Asian nations, Africa, and the Middle East.

- Ghais: We confirm OPEC's long-term demand outlook

Earlier on Tuesday, OPEC's Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais told Reuters he believed OPEC's long-term demand outlook, which looks to 2045 and sees no peak in demand, is robust.

"We stand by what was published in our latest outlook, and we firmly believe that it is robust," Ghais said.

OPEC will release the 2024 edition of the outlook later this year.

Ghais said we would have to "wait and see" until September or October when it is due if numbers vary.

"But we believe now our numbers stand and are very solid numbers," he said.

"If anything, changing narratives we are seeing now ... a lot of countries in the world turning back and slowing down and rethinking their net zero goals ... that will create further long-term demand for oil."

Ghais also said he was not concerned about Angola's exit from the group, which was announced in December.

Angola said on Dec. 21 that it would leave OPEC, a decision that prompted a drop in oil prices at the time and that some analysts said raised questions about the unity of both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance.

OPEC Chief said the country was welcome to rejoin if it wished.

"It is not the first time a member exits the organization for its own considerations," he said.

- OPEC+ cuts

He explained that the nature of production cuts being implemented by OPEC+, which brings together OPEC and its allies, including Russia, is voluntary and reflects the group's flexibility.

"For now, it's probably the most suitable way," he said.

"A voluntary cut is a sovereign decision by a country to adjust its production. It shows the inherent flexibility in our approach and that we have several means and ways to attend to market stability."

- Oil prices

Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions continued in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, but gains were curtailed as investors reined in expectations for the US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Brent futures settled 77 cents higher or 0.94% at $82.77 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 95 cents higher, or 1.24%, at $77.87 a barrel.

On Monday, oil prices were near flat after gaining 6% last week, with the conflict in the Middle East keeping prices elevated.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have kept up attacks in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians and striking vessels with commercial ties to the US, Britain, and Israel.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its quarterly outlook for Brent crude prices as it now expects a balanced oil market this year, having expected a surplus earlier.

"Recent inventory declines suggest the oil market has been tighter than we initially expected," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Monday note.

The bank expects Brent to average $82.50 per barrel in this year's first and second quarters, compared with $80 and $77.50.

It raised forecasts for the last two quarters to $80 per barrel.

The bank lowered its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth to 1.5 million from 1.7 million bpd and raised its global demand growth forecast to 1.5 million from 1.3 million bpd



World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.


Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
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Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)

Copper dropped on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly drop in London since March, as a rout in technology stocks battered markets.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.3% at $13,663 a metric ton by 0700 GMT. That placed it on track to fall 3.44% in the week, Reuters said.

The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.08% to 106,830 yuan ($16,018.17) a ton.

The weakness reflects worries over AI investment, ‌with copper increasingly ‌influenced by "sentiment towards data center expansion," said ‌Craig ⁠Lang, principal analyst ⁠at CRU.

Technology shares were battered after Democratic wins in the US midterms fueled concerns that new regulatory oversight could cap the AI buildout.

On the other hand, supply constraints cushioned copper's decline.

"I would be cautious about calling this a sustained correction, given ongoing mine supply challenges and exceptionally tight ⁠metal availability outside the US," Lang said.

Copper stocks ‌in SHFE-monitored warehouses <CU-STX-SGH> fell by ‌over 24% this week to just 33,848 tons — the lowest ‌in almost three years. The closely watched Yangshan copper ‌premium <SMM-CUYP-CN>, a gauge of appetite for imports into key consumer China, increased to $210 a ton on Thursday, matching its record high.

Smelters in the country are facing a double squeeze of negative treatment ‌charges and lower sulfuric acid prices.

Meanwhile, warehouse inventories outside the US have been drawn ⁠down as ⁠material was pulled into the country ahead of a potential tariff on imports of refined copper.

"These physical constraints should provide some support against weaker investor sentiment," Lang said.

Among LME metals, aluminium lost 0.54%, zinc lost 1.42%, lead lost 0.45%, nickel dipped 0.23% and tin gained 0.83%.

On the SHFE, aluminium nudged down only 0.04%, zinc lost 1.35%, lead was little changed, down only 0.03%, nickel rose 2.14% and tin dropped 3.45%.

SHFE inventories were down across the board this week, led by sharp drops in aluminium <AL-STX-SGH> and lead <PB-STX-SGH>.


Emerging Economies Set to Match Advanced Nations’ Renewable Capacity Additions, IEA Says

Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
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Emerging Economies Set to Match Advanced Nations’ Renewable Capacity Additions, IEA Says

Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)

Emerging ‌and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much new renewable energy capacity as advanced economies for the first time over the next five years, driven by the current energy crisis, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

Gas and oil prices have soared this year as the US-Iran war disrupts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas trade.

Global renewable energy ‌capacity is forecast ‌to increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts ‌between ⁠2026 and 2031, ⁠the IEA said in its annual outlook.

Emerging and developing economies are expected to add about 1,100 GW, roughly the same as advanced economies, with China adding around 2,550 GW, the agency said.

Capacity growth in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East is ⁠expected to triple over the period, ‌led mainly by solar installations, ‌the IEA said.

China will remain the biggest contributor to ‌global renewable energy growth, although its share is ‌forecast to fall to 53% by 2031 from 60% in 2025.

India is emerging as the world's second-fastest deployer of renewables and is expected to more than double its contribution ‌to global growth by 2031 to nearly 8.5%.

Grid connection delays remain ⁠a major ⁠challenge, with projects awaiting connections worldwide rising 60% over the past year, equivalent to four times the wind and solar capacity connected to grids during the same period.

Grid constraints are expected to slow growth in advanced economies, with annual additions in Europe through 2031 forecast to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels.

Renewable energy is expected to meet 6% of global transport energy demand by 2031, while higher fuel-blending mandates prompted the IEA to raise its biofuels forecast by 40% from last year's report.