OPEC Maintains Global Oil Demand Forecasts for 2024

An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
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OPEC Maintains Global Oil Demand Forecasts for 2024

An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)

OPEC saw demand growth of 2.25 million bpd, unchanged from last month for 2024, noting that global oil demand will rise by 1.85 million bpd in 2025 to 106.21 million bpd.

In its monthly report, OPEC saw world economic growth of 2.7% and 2.9% in 2025, supported by the expectation of a continued easing in general inflation throughout this year and next.

"Global economic growth remains robust," OPEC said in the report.

"Further upside potential could materialize in all major OECD and non-OECD economies."

OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut for the first quarter took effect last month.

The OPEC report said that OPEC oil production fell by 350,000 bpd to 26.34 million bpd in January as the latest voluntary output cuts took effect.

OPEC raised its world oil demand forecasts for the medium and long term in its annual outlook published in October.

It expects world oil demand to reach 116 million bpd by 2045, around 6 million bpd higher than the previous year's report, with growth led by China, India, other Asian nations, Africa, and the Middle East.

- Ghais: We confirm OPEC's long-term demand outlook

Earlier on Tuesday, OPEC's Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais told Reuters he believed OPEC's long-term demand outlook, which looks to 2045 and sees no peak in demand, is robust.

"We stand by what was published in our latest outlook, and we firmly believe that it is robust," Ghais said.

OPEC will release the 2024 edition of the outlook later this year.

Ghais said we would have to "wait and see" until September or October when it is due if numbers vary.

"But we believe now our numbers stand and are very solid numbers," he said.

"If anything, changing narratives we are seeing now ... a lot of countries in the world turning back and slowing down and rethinking their net zero goals ... that will create further long-term demand for oil."

Ghais also said he was not concerned about Angola's exit from the group, which was announced in December.

Angola said on Dec. 21 that it would leave OPEC, a decision that prompted a drop in oil prices at the time and that some analysts said raised questions about the unity of both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance.

OPEC Chief said the country was welcome to rejoin if it wished.

"It is not the first time a member exits the organization for its own considerations," he said.

- OPEC+ cuts

He explained that the nature of production cuts being implemented by OPEC+, which brings together OPEC and its allies, including Russia, is voluntary and reflects the group's flexibility.

"For now, it's probably the most suitable way," he said.

"A voluntary cut is a sovereign decision by a country to adjust its production. It shows the inherent flexibility in our approach and that we have several means and ways to attend to market stability."

- Oil prices

Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions continued in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, but gains were curtailed as investors reined in expectations for the US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Brent futures settled 77 cents higher or 0.94% at $82.77 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 95 cents higher, or 1.24%, at $77.87 a barrel.

On Monday, oil prices were near flat after gaining 6% last week, with the conflict in the Middle East keeping prices elevated.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have kept up attacks in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians and striking vessels with commercial ties to the US, Britain, and Israel.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its quarterly outlook for Brent crude prices as it now expects a balanced oil market this year, having expected a surplus earlier.

"Recent inventory declines suggest the oil market has been tighter than we initially expected," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Monday note.

The bank expects Brent to average $82.50 per barrel in this year's first and second quarters, compared with $80 and $77.50.

It raised forecasts for the last two quarters to $80 per barrel.

The bank lowered its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth to 1.5 million from 1.7 million bpd and raised its global demand growth forecast to 1.5 million from 1.3 million bpd



Middle East War Presents ‘Serious Risk’ for Africa, Warns Report

Festus Mwirotsi, 34, scouts for pests and diseases in roses meant for export at Isinya Roses farm in Kajiado, Kenya, March 24, 2026, as Kenya's flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million a week as the Iran war cuts demand and disrupts shipping. (AP)
Festus Mwirotsi, 34, scouts for pests and diseases in roses meant for export at Isinya Roses farm in Kajiado, Kenya, March 24, 2026, as Kenya's flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million a week as the Iran war cuts demand and disrupts shipping. (AP)
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Middle East War Presents ‘Serious Risk’ for Africa, Warns Report

Festus Mwirotsi, 34, scouts for pests and diseases in roses meant for export at Isinya Roses farm in Kajiado, Kenya, March 24, 2026, as Kenya's flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million a week as the Iran war cuts demand and disrupts shipping. (AP)
Festus Mwirotsi, 34, scouts for pests and diseases in roses meant for export at Isinya Roses farm in Kajiado, Kenya, March 24, 2026, as Kenya's flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million a week as the Iran war cuts demand and disrupts shipping. (AP)

The Middle East war "presents a serious risk to Africa", the African Union and the African Development Bank (AfDB) said in a report seen by AFP Saturday.

The conflict threatens to increase the cost of living and curtail growth on the continent, the report warned.

The Middle East accounts for 15.8 percent of Africa's imports and 10.9 percent of its exports, the report noted.

"The conflict, which already has triggered a trade shock, could quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions," it added.

The growth rate of most African countries continues to be slower than before the Covid pandemic, it noted.

"A loss in output growth of 0.2 percentage points on Africa's GDP is projected for 2026 if it (the conflict) exceeds six months," it said.

"The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent."

Reduced deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf will impact fertilizer production, limiting its availability during the crucial planting period up to May, it added.

- Currencies hit -

The report was compiled by the UN Development Program (UNDP) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).

According to recent data from the AfDB, the currencies of 29 African countries have already depreciated, increasing the cost of servicing external debt, making imports more expensive and reducing foreign exchange reserves,

Some countries could see some short-term gains, such as Nigeria for its oil exports or Mozambique for its LNG.

The rerouting of ships around Cape of Good Hope could benefit ports in Mozambique, South Africa, Namibia and Mauritius.

Kenya is establishing itself as a logistics hub in East Africa, while Ethiopian Airlines, the leading carrier in Africa, is serving as an "emergency air bridge" between the continent, Asia, and Europe, the report noted.

But these gains are likely to be uneven and will not offset the consequences for inflation, budgets, and food security in Africa, they warned.

Above all, the current crisis could hit the costs of humanitarian aid and divert donor funds towards other priorities.


Taiwan Says It Has Assurances over LNG Supplies from 'Major' Country

The Taipei 101 skyscraper is seen lit up before the Earth Hour in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, March 28, 2026. (AP Photo/ Chiang Ying-ying)
The Taipei 101 skyscraper is seen lit up before the Earth Hour in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, March 28, 2026. (AP Photo/ Chiang Ying-ying)
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Taiwan Says It Has Assurances over LNG Supplies from 'Major' Country

The Taipei 101 skyscraper is seen lit up before the Earth Hour in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, March 28, 2026. (AP Photo/ Chiang Ying-ying)
The Taipei 101 skyscraper is seen lit up before the Earth Hour in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, March 28, 2026. (AP Photo/ Chiang Ying-ying)

Taiwan has received ‌supply assurances from the energy minister of a "major" liquefied natural gas-producing country, the island's economy minister said on Saturday, speaking about the Iran war's impact on Middle East energy imports.

Taiwan, a major semiconductor producer, had relied on Qatar for around a third of its LNG before the conflict, and has said it has secured alternate supplies for the months ahead from countries including Australia and the United States, said Reuters.

Speaking to ‌reporters in Taipei, ‌Economy Minister Kung Ming-hsin said that ‌because ⁠Taiwan has good ⁠relationships with its crude oil and natural gas suppliers, neither adjusting shipment origins nor purchasing additional spot cargoes would be a problem.

Kung said that about two weeks ago the energy minister of a certain "major energy-producing country" proactively contacted him.

The person "explained to us that they ⁠would fully support our natural gas needs. ‌If we have any ‌demand, we can let them know," he added.

"Another country even ‌said that some countries have released strategic petroleum ‌reserves, and they could also help coordinate matters if Taiwan needs assistance," Kung said.

"This shows that Taiwan has in fact earned considerable goodwill internationally through the long-term trust ‌it has built over the years," he said.

He declined to name the countries involved.

Angela ⁠Lin, ⁠spokesperson for state-owned refiner CPC, said at the same news conference that crude oil inventories were being maintained at pre-conflict levels and overall petrochemical feedstock supplies have remained stable.

CPC Chairman Fang Jeng-zen said that to reduce dependence on the Middle East, a new contract with the US will see 1.2 million metric tons of LNG supplied annually, with even more to come in the future, including eventually from Alaska.

However, Taiwan is not considering importing crude or LNG from Russia, he added.


India Says Crude Oil Supplies Secured, No Payment Issues for Iran Imports

The Indian-flagged carrier Jag Vasant, carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) via the Strait of Hormuz, arrives at Mumbai Port in Mumbai, India, 01 April 2026. EPA/DIVYAKANT SOLANKI
The Indian-flagged carrier Jag Vasant, carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) via the Strait of Hormuz, arrives at Mumbai Port in Mumbai, India, 01 April 2026. EPA/DIVYAKANT SOLANKI
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India Says Crude Oil Supplies Secured, No Payment Issues for Iran Imports

The Indian-flagged carrier Jag Vasant, carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) via the Strait of Hormuz, arrives at Mumbai Port in Mumbai, India, 01 April 2026. EPA/DIVYAKANT SOLANKI
The Indian-flagged carrier Jag Vasant, carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) via the Strait of Hormuz, arrives at Mumbai Port in Mumbai, India, 01 April 2026. EPA/DIVYAKANT SOLANKI

India's petroleum ministry said in a post on X on ‌Saturday ‌that the ‌country's ⁠refiners have secured their ⁠crude requirements, including from Iran, ⁠and ‌there are ‌no payment hurdles ‌for ‌Iranian imports.

India's crude oil ‌requirements remain fully secured ⁠for the coming ⁠months, the ministry added.