Türkiye Inflation Rises to 67%, Keeping Pressure on Cenbank

Türkiye's annual inflation rate climbed to 67.07% in February, exceeding expectations and keeping up pressure for tight monetary policy amid strong rises in food, hotel and education prices, official data showed on Monday.
Shortly before the data, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek told local broadcaster BloombergHT that inflation would remain high in the coming months due to base effects and the delayed impact of rate hikes, but would fall in the next 12 months.
The central bank has hiked interest rates by 3,650 basis points since June, but has now paused its tightening cycle saying that the current 45% policy rate is sufficient to bring inflation down, Reuters said.
Yet some economists see a growing prospect of more tightening sometime after nationwide local elections on March 31, given the price pressure and
strong domestic demand.
"Core price pressures continue to run hot and if this continues, the possibility of a restart to the central bank's tightening cycle will only increase in the coming months," said Capital Economics senior emerging markets economist Liam Peach.
Month-on-month consumer price inflation (CPI) was 4.53%, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, down from 6.70% in January but well above a Reuters poll forecast of 3.7%.
Annual inflation was expected to climb to 65.7% in February before falling to 42.7% by the end of 2024, the poll found.
In January, annual consumer price inflation was 64.86%.
"Inflation was high in January due to temporary effects. There could be some continuation of that in February," Simsek said. "However as of March, inflation will be back on trend. It will become in line with our disinflation path."
LIRA SLIDE
The lira has weakened 6% this year after a near-37% slide in 2023, further stoking import prices. It was slightly weaker at 31.4205 against the dollar after the data.
Though some analysts predict currency weakness after the elections - in which President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling party seeks to reclaim big cities from the opposition - Simsek said authorities want neither a depreciating nor very valuable lira.
Restaurants and hotels led the price rises in February, surging 94.5%, followed by a 91.8% rise in education prices. Heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic drinks prices jumped 71.1%.
Economists have said that February inflation was also driven by the lingering impact of this year's minimum wage hike on the services sector.
Last month, the central bank maintained its 36% year-end inflation target and vowed to keep policy tight for longer to bring inflation down to the forecasted path. The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling only to 42.7% by year end.
The domestic producer price index was up 3.74% month-on-month in February for an annual rise of 47.29%, the data showed.

China's State Administration of Market Regulation issued a statement on Friday saying Alibaba Group had completed three years "rectification" following a fine levied in 2021 for monopolistic behavior.
In 2021, the regulator slapped a record $2.75 billion fine on the e-commerce giant for abusing its market position by forcing merchants on its platforms not to work with rival platforms.
The regulator's statement said Alibaba's rectification work had achieved "good results" and that it would continue to "guide" Alibaba to continue to "regulate its operations and improve its compliance and quality."
The fine levied on Alibaba in 2021 came during a period of intense scrutiny for the business empire founded by billionaire Jack Ma, Reuters reported. A $37 billion IPO by the finance arm he founded, Ant Group, was also scuttled following Ma's public critique of the country's regulatory system in late 2020.
Alibaba, in its own statement, described the regulator's announcement on Friday as a "new starting point for development" and said it would continue to "promote the healthy development of the platform economy and create more value for society."

Türkiye Inflation Rises to 67%, Keeping Pressure on Cenbank