Gold Extends Rally to Record as Powell Hints at Rate Cut in 2024

Gold prices steadied near a three-month peak. Reuters
Gold prices steadied near a three-month peak. Reuters
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Gold Extends Rally to Record as Powell Hints at Rate Cut in 2024

Gold prices steadied near a three-month peak. Reuters
Gold prices steadied near a three-month peak. Reuters

Gold prices surged to a record high on Thursday, poised for their seventh consecutive daily rise, led by sluggish US economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indications of potential rate cuts in the coming months should inflation alleviate.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,155.42 per ounce, as of 0723 GMT. US gold futures added 0.2% to $2,163.10, Reuters said.
Bullion continued its record-breaking rally, reaching an all-time high of $2,161.09 earlier in the session and looked set for its longest intra-day winning streak since at least November 2021.
The marginal weakness in US data gave gold a reason to rally, yet the magnitude of movement appears disproportionately large, possibly influenced by large futures buying that commenced on Friday, Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy team at Macquarie, said.
Gold got a boost on Wednesday after Powell indicated that interest rate cuts were likely in the coming months "if the economy evolves broadly as expected," along with further evidence of falling inflation. Powell will speak again later in the day.
Lower rates boost the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
Powell's remarks, coupled with data released the same day indicating a softening of labor market conditions, resulted in US Treasury yields and dollar sliding, increasing the appeal of gold.
If Friday's labor market data or next week's inflation data shows any weakness, $2,300 would be the short term target based on technical levels, but that would be fairly a short lived phenomenon, before prices correct and consolidate, Macquarie's Garvey said.
"We expect central bank buying to continue on the back of geo-political uncertainty. Slowdown in China will keep global growth contained. Hence, in an uncertain financial environment, gold will remain a safe investment for banks," said Jigar Pandit, head of commodity and currency business at BNP Paribas' Sharekhan.
Spot silver fell 0.4% to $24.08, while platinum dipped 0.3% to $904.83 per ounce, and palladium slipped 1.5% to $1,026.80, after surging more than 12% in the last session.



Oil Extends Climb on Supply Fears, Trade War Concerns Cap Gains

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Extends Climb on Supply Fears, Trade War Concerns Cap Gains

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday after threats by US President Donald Trump to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and attack Iran, though worries about the impact of a trade war on global growth capped gains.

Brent futures rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $74.98 a barrel at 0645 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.70.

The contracts settled at five-week highs a day earlier.

"Near-term risks are skewed to the upside, with US threats of secondary tariffs on Russian and Iranian oil leading market participants to price for the risks of tighter oil supplies," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, Reuters reported.

However, broader themes still revolve around concerns of upcoming tariffs weighing on global demand, along with prospects of increased supply from OPEC+ and the US, said Yeap.

A Reuters poll of 49 economists and analysts in March projected that oil prices would remain under pressure this year from US tariffs and economic slowdowns in India and China, while OPEC+ increases supply.

Slower global growth would dent fuel demand, which might offset any reduction in supply due to Trump's threats.

After news of Trump's threats initially boosted prices on Monday, traders told Reuters they viewed the president's warnings to Russia, at least, as a bluff.

Trump, on Sunday, told NBC News that he was very angry with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on Russian oil buyers if Moscow tries to block efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Tariffs on buyers of oil from Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, would disrupt global supply and hurt Moscow's biggest customers, China and India.

Trump also threatened Iran with similar tariffs and bombings if Tehran did not reach an agreement with the White House over its nuclear program.

"For now, it appears to be just a threat to Russia and Iran. However, if it becomes a reality, it creates plenty of upside risk to the market given the significant oil export volumes from both countries," said ING commodities strategists on Tuesday.

The market will be watching for weekly inventory data from US industry group the American Petroleum Institute later on Tuesday, ahead of official statistics from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Five analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that US crude inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to March 28.