Oil Steady as Middle East Worries Offset US Crude Stock Buildup

A pump jack lifts oil out of a well during a sandstorm in Midland, Texas, US, April 13, 2018. Picture taken April 13, 2018. (Reuters)
A pump jack lifts oil out of a well during a sandstorm in Midland, Texas, US, April 13, 2018. Picture taken April 13, 2018. (Reuters)
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Oil Steady as Middle East Worries Offset US Crude Stock Buildup

A pump jack lifts oil out of a well during a sandstorm in Midland, Texas, US, April 13, 2018. Picture taken April 13, 2018. (Reuters)
A pump jack lifts oil out of a well during a sandstorm in Midland, Texas, US, April 13, 2018. Picture taken April 13, 2018. (Reuters)

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday after two straight days of losses, as the deadlock in Gaza ceasefire talks renewed uncertainty about the security of supplies from the Middle East, offsetting a bigger-than-expected build in US crude inventories.

Brent crude futures were up marginally at $89.49 per barrel at 0330 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 8 cents to $85.31.

Prices for both benchmarks remain down around 1.8% on the end of last week despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered by the prospect of Israel's war in Gaza lasting longer, and drawing in more countries.

"Some of the heat has come out of rally in crude oil in the early part of this week on hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza and higher US inventories," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Singapore.

Hamas said on Tuesday that an Israeli proposal on a ceasefire in their war in Gaza did not meet the demands of Palestinian militant factions, but it would study the offer further and deliver its response to mediators.

If the conflict continues, it risks the involvement of other countries in the region, particularly Hamas backer Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Meanwhile, US crude stocks climbed last week by 3.03 million barrels, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Analysts had estimated that stocks would rise by about 2.4 million barrels.

Official US government inventory data is due at 1430 GMT.

However, all the risks remain to the upside, IG's Sycamore said.

"Anything from a cooler-than-expected US CPI tonight to another Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure to a response from Iran after Israel killed two of its generals in Syria last week is more than capable of re-igniting the uptrend," he added.

Separately, the government raised its forecast for US crude oil output, expecting an increase of 280,000 bpd to 13.21 million bpd in 2024, up 20,000 bpd from an earlier forecast from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

However, EIA said it expects Brent crude prices to average $88.55 a barrel in 2024, up from a previous forecast of $87 a barrel.

On Tuesday, both Brent and WTI fell more than 1%, as Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions in Cairo continued.

Türkiye said it would restrict exports of various products, including jet fuel, to Israel until there is a ceasefire. Israel said it would respond with its own curbs.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.