Oil Prices Fall After Iran Attack as Market Draws Down Risk Premium 

A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Fall After Iran Attack as Market Draws Down Risk Premium 

A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)

Oil prices fell at Asia's open on Monday, as market participants dialed back risk premiums following Iran's attack on Israel late on Saturday which the Israeli government said caused limited damage.

Brent futures for June delivery fell 24 cents to $90.21 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 38 cents at $85.28 a barrel by 1256 GMT.

The attack involving more than 300 missiles and drones was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades. It had raised concerns about a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East.

But the attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defense system. Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas fighters in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.

While Israeli officials said the country's war cabinet was in favor of retaliation, the US said it would not take part in any offensive against Iran. Global powers, other Arab nations and the UN secretary general have issued calls for restraint.

"The Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attack on Israel yesterday morning appears sufficient in size to revenge the killing of Iranian military personnel in Syria without being damaging enough to trigger a further escalation in hostilities at this point," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note.

Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of a retaliatory attack by Iran, touching their highest levels since October.

But prices still ended the week down about 1% after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year.

Despite the limited damage sustained by Israel, analysts were widely expecting at least a short-lived rally in prices this morning.

The attack marks an "unprecedented and dangerous development in an already volatile region," said Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon.

Analysts said more significant and longer-lasting price effects from the escalation would require a material disruption to supply, such as constraints on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz near Iran.

So far, the Israel-Hamas conflict has had little tangible impact on oil supply.

A "less certain path to Fed rate cuts" because of persistent US inflation also weighed on prices, Sycamore said. "However, in the medium term, ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe means that all the risks remain to the topside in crude oil towards $90."



Saudi Transport, Logistics Sector Set for 10% Growth in Q2

An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
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Saudi Transport, Logistics Sector Set for 10% Growth in Q2

An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)

As Saudi companies start reporting their Q2 financial results, experts are optimistic about the transport and logistics sector. They expect a 10% annual growth, with total net profits reaching around SAR 900 million ($240 million), driven by tourism and an economic corridor project.

In Q1, the seven listed transport and logistics companies in Saudi Arabia showed positive results, with combined profits increasing by 5.8% to SAR 818.7 million ($218 million) compared to the previous year.

Four companies reported profit growth, while three saw declines, including two with losses, according to Arbah Capital.

Al Rajhi Capital projects significant gains for Q2 compared to last year: Lumi Rental’s profits are expected to rise by 31% to SAR 65 million, SAL’s by 76% to SAR 192 million, and Theeb’s by 23% to SAR 37 million.

On the other hand, Aljazira Capital predicts a 13% decrease in Lumi Rental’s net profit to SAR 43 million, despite a 44% rise in revenue. This is due to higher operational costs post-IPO.

SAL’s annual profit is expected to grow by 76% to SAR 191.6 million, driven by a 29% increase in revenue and higher profit margins.

Aljazira Capital also expects a 2.8% drop in the sector’s net profit from Q1 due to lower profits for SAL and Seera, caused by reduced revenue and profit margins.

Mohammad Al Farraj, Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sector’s continued profit growth is supported by seasonal factors like summer travel and higher demand for transport services.

He predicts Q2 profits will reach around SAR 900 million ($240 million), up 10% from Q1.

Al Farraj highlighted that the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), linking India with the GCC and Europe, is expected to boost sector growth by improving trade and transport connections.

However, he warned that companies may still face challenges, including rising costs and workforce shortages.