Oil Prices Dip as Demand Worries Outweigh Mideast Supply Fears 

El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is seen, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela February 10, 2024. (Reuters)
El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is seen, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela February 10, 2024. (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Dip as Demand Worries Outweigh Mideast Supply Fears 

El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is seen, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela February 10, 2024. (Reuters)
El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is seen, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela February 10, 2024. (Reuters)

Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday as worries about global demand due to weak economic momentum in China and a likely rise in US commercial stockpiles outweighed supply fears from heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Brent futures for June fell 40 cents, or 0.44%, to $89.62 a barrel by 0632 GMT, while US crude futures for May fell 48 cents, or 0.56%, to $84.88 a barrel.

Oil prices have softened so far this week as economic headwinds pressured investor sentiment, curbing gains from geopolitical tensions, with market's eyeing on how Israel might respond to Iran's attack over the weekend.

"With oil prices highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, the past week has seen some wait-and-see consolidation in place as Israel's response will determine if there may be a wider regional conflict, which could significantly impact oil supplies," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

"For now, the near-term weakness in oil prices may reflect some expectations that tensions may still be contained," Yeap added.

In China, the world's biggest oil importer, the economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but several March indicators, including property investment, retail sales and industrial output, showed that demand at home remains frail, weighing on overall momentum.

"Apart from that, a build-up in US crude inventories overnight and a mixed set of economic data out of China also offered some reservations, alongside near-term overbought technicals which prompts some profit-taking," Yeap said.

US crude oil inventories rose last week more than expected by analysts polled by Reuters, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. (1430 GMT).

In the Middle East, a third meeting of Israel's war cabinet set for Tuesday to decide on a response to Iran's first-ever direct attack was put off until Wednesday, as Western allies eyed swift new sanctions against Tehran to help dissuade Israel from a major escalation.

Analysts however do not expect Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strike on Israel to prompt dramatic sanctions action on Iran's oil exports from the Biden administration.

Meanwhile, the US government could reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela on Thursday - which in turn could tighten supplies in the market.

Prices could trade sideways in the meantime because of these current market drivers, analysts say.

WTI price movements in the short term are likely to be trapped in a sideways range between $83.20 and $87.70 due to conflicting factors such as China's disappointing retail sales in March and geopolitical risk premium still remaining intact, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.