World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The World Bank is forecasting a 5.9% growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy in 2025, surpassing previous estimates. This surge is fueled by heightened non-oil activities and anticipated increases in oil prices, as explained by Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank.

The bank now expects the Kingdom’s economy to expand by 5.9% next year, a significant increase from its earlier prediction of 4.2%. It also forecasts a 4.8% growth in the non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia this year.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Gatti explained that the higher forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economy next year relies on two main factors:

Firstly, boosting non-oil activities through loose fiscal policy, large investments (especially public ones), and strong private spending, all while keeping inflation low with generous subsidies.

Secondly, expecting a significant rise in oil production in 2025 due to current trends and extending oil production cuts until mid-2024, leading to a 5.9% GDP growth.

Economic Shocks and Debt Impact

Discussing a report about conflict and debt in the MENA region, Gatti highlighted how conflict exacerbates major weaknesses in the region, notably the surge in debt compared to GDP.

Over the past decade, most regional economies saw their debt levels rise, a trend accelerated by the pandemic.

By 2023, debt had climbed to 88% of GDP in oil-importing countries, up from 81% in 2013. Importantly, debt levels are much higher for oil-importing nations, averaging 88% of GDP in 2023 compared to 34% for oil-exporting ones.

Gatti stressed the importance of transparency in debt management, particularly for oil-importing nations. She also underscored the need to address off-budget expenditures, which are not officially recorded.

She warned that financial adjustments made to handle high interest payments might not fully tackle the increasing debt burdens resulting from off-budget spending. This is especially pertinent for oil-importing countries in the MENA region, Gatti noted.

Oil-exporting nations face the task of broadening their economic and financial sources due to shifts in global oil markets and rising demand for renewable energy.

Gatti explained that uncertainty in the MENA region, already higher than in other emerging markets and developing countries, intensified after October 7 (the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas) and remains higher than in those regions.

While noting that the report assumes no escalation in conflict, she cautioned about its lasting effects.

As per Gatti, studies show that debt patterns after conflict differ from other disasters. Debt tends to rise after nearly any natural disaster, and GDP growth drops in the disaster year. But growth rebounds in the following years.

After armed conflict, debt spikes significantly, like in any disaster. However, economic recovery post-conflict doesn’t happen, meaning government actions after fighting may not boost economic growth. This means pre-existing debt vulnerabilities could worsen if conflict escalates in the Middle East and North Africa.



Projects, Agreements Exceeding $48 Billion Expected at Cityscape Global in Riyadh

National Housing Company (NHC) CEO Mohammed Al-Buty speaks at Cityscape Global. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
National Housing Company (NHC) CEO Mohammed Al-Buty speaks at Cityscape Global. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Projects, Agreements Exceeding $48 Billion Expected at Cityscape Global in Riyadh

National Housing Company (NHC) CEO Mohammed Al-Buty speaks at Cityscape Global. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
National Housing Company (NHC) CEO Mohammed Al-Buty speaks at Cityscape Global. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is experiencing a surge in growth, marked by record-breaking deals expected at the second annual Cityscape Global 2024, the world’s largest real estate exhibition.

Deals at this year’s event, held in Riyadh, are anticipated to exceed SAR 180 billion ($48 billion), representing an increase of over 50% compared to the previous edition.

According to Majid Al-Hogail, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing, real estate deals in the Kingdom have reached SAR 630 billion ($168 billion) since the beginning of the year, supporting national economic growth and diversification.

Cityscape, held at the Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center, showcases Saudi Arabia’s ongoing real estate development and serves as a central platform for innovation and investment. The event is supported by the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing, the General Real Estate Authority, and the Housing Program, a key initiative under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

The number of participants doubled from last year, with over 100 local and 69 international developers taking part, underscoring the strength and global confidence in Saudi Arabia’s real estate market.

Al-Hogail highlighted that Saudi banks have significantly increased real estate financing from SAR 200 billion ($53.3 billion) in 2018 to SAR 800 billion ($213.3 billion) this year, with the market projected to reach SAR 1.3 trillion ($346 billion) by 2030. The Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company has also supported this growth, providing over SAR 37 billion ($9.8 billion) in mortgage refinancing.

In line with this expansion, the Kingdom has seen a rise in homeownership rates, which reached 63.7% at the end of 2023. Over 20 new regulatory measures have been implemented to streamline the market, and more than 60,000 real estate broker licenses have been issued.

Al-Hogail noted that the real estate sector plays a critical role, impacting over 60 economic sectors and positioning Saudi Arabia as a global hub for urban development and sustainable cities of the future.

Supporting these objectives, Cityscape hosted 400 exhibitors from 50 countries and over 100 investors, with an agenda aligned with Vision 2030’s pillars: increasing supply, expanding financing, modernizing regulations, and adopting advanced technology.

The National Housing Company (NHC), represented by CEO Mohammed Al-Buty, unveiled a new brand identity at the event, symbolizing its commitment to creating integrated urban communities that elevate quality of life.

Al-Buty emphasized the company’s role in advancing infrastructure that aligns with Vision 2030’s sustainable development goals, aiming to build vibrant, livable environments with easy access to essential services, green spaces, and commercial areas.

Several significant agreements were also announced. The NHC signed deals worth over SAR 142 billion, while Retal pledged more than SAR 14 billion for four projects in Riyadh and Al Khobar. Mohammed Al-Habib Company revealed its “Enar” residential-commercial project, valued at SAR 5 billion, while Tilal committed SAR 6 billion to a mixed-use project in Al Khobar.

Caden announced a SAR 10 billion project to develop over one million square meters, and Mountain View earmarked SAR 1.2 billion to build 500 villas. Diriyah Gate Company also invested SAR 1 billion for luxury residential and hotel suites, in partnership with brands such as Ritz-Carlton and Raffles.

With the theme “Future of Living,” this year’s Cityscape Global highlights Saudi Arabia’s dynamic real estate sector and the nation’s commitment to transforming urban landscapes and meeting future lifestyle needs.