Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices steadied on Thursday after settling lower in the previous day, as signs of retreating fuel demand in the US, the world's biggest oil user, contended with widening conflict risks in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent crude futures inched up 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $88.20 a barrel at 0630 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.94 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that gasoline stockpiles fell less than forecast while distillate stockpiles rose against expectations of a decline, reflecting signs of slowing demand.

The falling fuel demand is occurring amid signs of cooling US business activity in April and as stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data means the US Federal Reserve is more likely to delay expected interest rate cuts, weighing on economic sentiment.

"The current weakness in benchmark prices, after testing above $90 (a barrel) levels, is due to market sentiment refocusing on global economic headwinds over geopolitical tensions," said Emril Jamil, senior oil analyst at LSEG Oil Research.
Geopolitics aside, prices this quarter will be driven by factors including major producer supply cuts, economic data out of China and Eurozone, on top of incremental demand expectations as the Northern Hemisphere heads into summer amid expected tighter supply, said Jamil.

A better indication of the Fed's rate intentions will be seen after US gross domestic product and March personal consumption expenditure data is released on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is expected to expand as Israel may start an assault on Rafah, in the enclave's south, which may increase the risk of a wider war that could potentially disrupt oil supplies.
However, there have been no other signs of direct conflict between Israel and Hamas-backer Iran, a major oil producer, since last week.
"Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, but Israeli attacks on Gaza are expected to worsen, and the risk of conflicts spreading to neighboring countries is underpinning oil prices," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.
Other EIA data on Wednesday showed that crude stocks slumped by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for an 825,000-barrel rise.



IMF Board to Review Staff-level $8.1 Bln Agreement for Ukraine

The city's downtown on a frosty winter day, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Alina Smutko
The city's downtown on a frosty winter day, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Alina Smutko
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IMF Board to Review Staff-level $8.1 Bln Agreement for Ukraine

The city's downtown on a frosty winter day, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Alina Smutko
The city's downtown on a frosty winter day, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Alina Smutko

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday said its board ​would review a staff-level agreement for a new $8.1 billion lending program for Ukraine in coming days.

IMF spokeswoman Jule Kozack told reporters that Ukrainian authorities had completed the prior actions needed to move forward with the request ⁠of a new ⁠IMF program, including submission of a draft law on the labor code and adoption of a budget.

She said Ukraine's economic growth in 2025 ⁠was likely under 2%. After four years of war, the country's economy had settled into a slower growth path with larger fiscal and current account balances, she said, noting that the IMF continues to monitor the situation closely.

"Russia's invasion continues to take a ⁠heavy ⁠toll on Ukraine's people and its economy," Kozack said. Intensified aerial attacks by Russia had damaged critical energy and logistics infrastructure, causing disruptions to economic activity, Reuters quoted her as saying.

As of January, she said, 5 million Ukrainian refugees remained in Europe and 3.7 million Ukrainians were displaced inside the country.


US Stocks Fall as Iran Angst Lifts Oil Prices

A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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US Stocks Fall as Iran Angst Lifts Oil Prices

A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Wall Street stocks retreated early Thursday as worries over US-Iran tensions lifted oil prices while markets digested mixed results from Walmart.

US oil futures rose to a six-month high as Iran's atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami said no country can deprive the Islamic republic of its right to nuclear enrichment, after US President Donald Trump again hinted at military action following talks in Geneva.

"We'd call this an undercurrent of concern that is bubbling up in oil prices," Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare said of the "geopolitical angst."

About 10 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6 percent at 49,379.46, AFP reported.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent to 6,849.35, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.6 percent to 22,621.38.

Among individual companies, Walmart rose 1.7 percent after reporting solid results but offering forecasts that missed analyst expectations.

Shares of the retail giant initially fell, but pushed higher after Walmart executives talked up artificial intelligence investments on a conference call with analysts.

The US trade deficit in goods expanded to a new record in 2025, government data showed, despite sweeping tariffs that Trump imposed during his first year back in the White House.


Gold Advances on US–Iran Tensions as Markets Weigh Fed Policy Path

UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
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Gold Advances on US–Iran Tensions as Markets Weigh Fed Policy Path

UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo

Gold prices extended gains on Thursday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, as lingering tensions between the United States and Iran prompted a flight to safety, while investors evaluated the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,989.09 per ounce by 1227 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery held steady at $5,008.60.

"Geopolitical concerns are front and centre with reports that, if the US were to take military action against Iran, it could go on for several weeks," said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Nemo.money, Reuters reported.

Some progress was made during Iran talks this week in Geneva but distance remained on some issues, the White House said on Wednesday.

FED LARGELY UNITED

Top US national security advisers met in the White House Situation Room on Wednesday to discuss Iran and were told all US military forces deployed to the region should be in place by mid-March.

Meanwhile, the Fed's January minutes showed it largely united on holding interest rates steady, but divided over what comes next, with "several" open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while others were inclined to support further cuts if inflation recedes.

The weekly jobless claims data, due later in the day, and Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide further clues on the central bank's policy trajectory.

Markets currently expect this year's first interest rate cut to be in June, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Spot silver rose 0.9% to $77.87 per ounce after climbing more than 5% on Wednesday.

Silver is "supported by tight supply and low COMEX stock levels ahead of the delivery period of the March contract. However, given the extent of the historic correction earlier this month, silver is not back on safer ground until it trades back above $86," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Spot platinum fell 0.6% to $2,059.55 per ounce, while palladium lost 1.7% to $1,686.47.