European Companies are Less Upbeat About China’s Vast Market as its Economy Slows

President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
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European Companies are Less Upbeat About China’s Vast Market as its Economy Slows

President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)

China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to expand their businesses in the world's second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies found, The AP reported.

The slowing economy is now the dominant concern of respondents to the European Chamber of Commerce in China survey, which was released Friday. China still ranks high as a place to invest, but the share of companies considering an expansion of their operations in the country this year fell to 42%, the lowest ever recorded.

“The business outlook is the most pessimistic yet, with companies’ expectations for growth and profitability taking a hit, and concerns about competition intensifying,” the chamber said in its business confidence survey.

The economic worries are layered on top of long-running complaints about regulations and practices that companies say favor their Chinese competitors or are unclear, creating uncertainty for them and their employees. Others including the American Chamber in China have expressed similar concerns.

Those older issues are now compounded by the weaker economy, eroding business confidence, said Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Chamber.

“Companies are beginning to realize that some of these pressures that we have seen in the local market, whether it’s competition, whether it’s low demand, that they are taking on perhaps a more permanent nature,” he told journalists earlier this week. “And that is something that is beginning to impact investment decisions and the way they go about thinking about development of the local market.”

The government is launching programs to boost consumer spending but confidence remains low because of a weak job market. Economic growth came in at a faster-than-expected 5.3% annual pace in the first three months of the year, but much of the GDP growth came from government spending on infrastructure and investment in factories and equipment.

Massive investment in industries such as solar power panels and electric cars has created intense price competition, squeezing profits. More than a third of the survey respondents said they have observed overcapacity in their industry. For 15% of the companies, their China operations finished 2023 in the red. Foreign companies need growth in domestic demand, not manufacturing capacity, Eskelund said.

“What is important to foreign companies is not necessarily sort of a headline GDP number — 5.3%, whatever — but the composition of GDP,” he said.

Close to 40% of companies said they have moved or are considering moving future investments out of China. Southeast Asia and Europe are the biggest beneficiaries, followed by India and North America. Nearly 60% said they are sticking with their investment plans for China, but that was down from last year.

“It’s not that companies are giving up on China, it’s just that we are beginning to see other countries emerging as a serious competitor to China,” Eskelund said Friday.

The survey report said “China’s allure as a top investment destination is fading” and warned that companies will pursue opportunities elsewhere unless there are improvements in the business environment.

The proportion of companies that are optimistic about expanding their China business this year fell to about one-third, down from more than half in 2023. Only 15% were optimistic about profit growth.

More than half expect to cut costs in China this year, including 26% who plan to reduce the size of their staffs — which the report said "will further increase the pressure on an already strained job market.”



Oil Slips as Investors Eye Trump Move on Russian Export Curbs

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
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Oil Slips as Investors Eye Trump Move on Russian Export Curbs

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Monday as expectations of US President-elect Donald Trump relaxing curbs on Russia's energy sector in exchange for a deal to end the Ukraine war offset concern of supply disruption from harsher sanctions.
Brent crude futures dropped 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $80.63 a barrel by 0453 GMT after closing down 0.62% in the previous session.
The more active US West Texas Intermediate crude April contract fell 6 cents to $77.33 a barrel. The front-month contract, which expires on Tuesday, was at $78.03 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.19%, after settling down 1.02% on Friday.
Trump, who will be inaugurated later on Monday, is widely expected to make a flurry of policy announcements in the first hours of his second term, including an end to a moratorium on US liquefied natural gas export licences - part of a wider strategy to strengthen the economy.
"There is a fair amount of uncertainty across markets coming into this week given the inauguration of President Trump and the raft of executive orders he reportedly is planning to sign," ING analysts said in a note.
"This combined with it being a US holiday today, means that some market participants may have decided to take some risk off the table."
Both contracts gained more than 1% last week in their fourth successive weekly ascent after the Biden administration sanctioned more than 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers. That led to a scramble by top buyers China and India for prompt oil cargo and a rush for ship supply as dealers of Russian and Iranian oil sought unsanctioned tankers to ferry their load.
While the new sanctions could impact the supply of nearly 1 million barrels per day of oil from Russia, recent price gains could be short lived depending on Trump action, ANZ analysts said in a client note.
Trump has promised to help end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly, which could involve relaxing some curbs to enable an accord, they said.
Analyst Tim Evans said the new sanctions are seen curtailing supply, at least in the near term.
"Higher tanker rates on unencumbered vessels and a widening backwardation in crude oil calendar spreads have been among the notable ripple effects, reinforcing the concern over supplies," he said in his newsletter Evans on Energy.
Backwardation refers to prompt prices being higher than those in future months, indicating tight supply.
The prompt Brent monthly spread <LCOc1-LCOc2> widened in backwardation by 5 cents to $1.27 a barrel on Monday. The WTI spread <CLc1-CLc2> was at 63 cents a barrel, up 14 cents.
Easing tension in the Middle East also kept a lid on oil prices.
Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages and prisoners on Sunday that marked the first day of a ceasefire after 15 months of war.
Separately, investors are watching out for the impact from a cold snap in Texas and New Mexico which may affect US oil production, analysts at ANZ and ING said.