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Cost of Israeli War on Gaza Reaches $62 Billion

A soldier fixes the Israeli flag on a tank during a military maneuver near the border with Lebanon in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A soldier fixes the Israeli flag on a tank during a military maneuver near the border with Lebanon in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Cost of Israeli War on Gaza Reaches $62 Billion

A soldier fixes the Israeli flag on a tank during a military maneuver near the border with Lebanon in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A soldier fixes the Israeli flag on a tank during a military maneuver near the border with Lebanon in northern Israel. (Reuters)

Following the shock of war, the Israeli economy found itself at a crossroads, as it witnessed a clear slowdown in commercial, investment, and service activity.

These challenges did not only impact the economic situation, but posed social and political challenges that obstructed the path of continuous growth that had lasted for almost two years.

A report issued by Moody’s rating agency said that the ongoing war costs Israel $269 million daily. The report was based on a preliminary study that took into account the estimates of the Israeli Ministry of Finance. This means that the war has cost Israel $61.9 billion since its eruption around 230 days ago.

According to data from the Israeli Ministry of Finance, the fiscal deficit rose to 7 percent of GDP in 4 months of the current year, reaching $35.7 billion since April 2023, which is higher than the government’s estimate of 6.6 percent for the entire year of 2024.

It is also an unprecedented number since the global financial crisis in 2008, according to the Ministry of Finance, which indicated that the fiscal deficit in April amounted to $3.16 billion.

The war forced the government to increase defense spending significantly, which accounted for about two-thirds of total spending in four months. In contrast, revenues declined by 2.2 percent, due to a decrease in tax payments.

The government plans to raise about $60 billion in debt this year and increase taxes to meet its financial needs. The average monthly bond sales tripled after the outbreak of the war, according to Bloomberg estimates, which indicated that the government had collected about $55.4 billion since October, from domestic and foreign markets.

In light of the growing financial burdens resulting from the war, Israel was receiving blow after blow from international rating agencies, which of course affected its attempts to raise external financing. After Moody’s lowered its sovereign rating for Israel by one notch to A2, Standard & Poor’s joined in in April and lowered the rating from AA- to A+.

In light of the uncertainty about the extent of the impact of the ongoing war with Hamas, it is widely expected that the Bank of Israel will leave short-term interest rates unchanged during its meeting on Monday, for the third time in a row.

In January, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the key interest rate by 25 basis points, which followed 10 consecutive increases in interest rates, in a strong tightening cycle from the lowest level ever at 0.1 percent in April 2022, before a temporary pause in July.

According to a Reuters poll, further cuts in interest rates during the rest of 2024 are at risk due to inflation pressures.

The annual inflation rate continued to rise in April to 2.8 percent, after falling to 2.5 percent in February.

In light of talk about a possible Israeli military rule in Gaza, Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported, citing an official document, that such strategy in Gaza would cost Tel Aviv no less than 20 billion shekels ($5.4 billion) annually. The newspaper reported that the Israeli security establishment prepared an analytical document to study the financial consequences of establishing a military government in the Gaza Strip.

The fate of the Israeli economy in the war period and beyond depends largely on several factors, including political and security stability, transformations in various economic sectors, and developments in regional conflicts. Despite the existing challenges, some expectations indicate that the Israeli economy will recover at a moderate pace, but this does not replace the need to better promote growth and stability, especially in light of the turbulent geopolitical conditions that the region is witnessing.

In an interview with the Jerusalem Post newspaper, the former governor of the Bank of Israel, Karnit Flug, said that the government response to the economic challenges resulting from the conflict between Israel and Hamas were not commensurate with the situation.

She explained the proposed measures (some of which were approved in the Knesset, while others were postponed or planned to be implemented in the future) are not sufficient to address the current challenges.

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At Heart of the Crisis, Gulf States Act as Global Shock Absorbers

The flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council General Secretariat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council General Secretariat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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At Heart of the Crisis, Gulf States Act as Global Shock Absorbers

The flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council General Secretariat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council General Secretariat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

As the US-Israeli war against Iran entered its 18th day, fast-moving geopolitical shifts in the Middle East have again thrust Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states into focus as a pillar of global economic stability, particularly in energy markets, international trade, and supply chains.

As supply chains strain under the weight of conflict, GCC economies are emerging as a stabilizing force in global trade and energy, backed by a $2.3 trillion economic bloc. Ranked ninth globally, the region is no longer just an energy exporter, but a major financial and investment center in the international system.

That role is heightened by the Gulf’s geography, linking some of the world’s most critical trade and energy routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz. Disruption to the vital passage has fueled fears of surging energy prices and supply chain breakdowns.

Hamza Dweik, head of trading for the Middle East and North Africa at Saxo Bank, said the Gulf’s stabilizing role goes beyond theory, with direct impact on market dynamics.

The region sits at the crossroads of key energy arteries, giving it unusual capacity to steady markets or amplify volatility when risks rise, Dweik told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He pointed to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoints, where oil flows averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.

Oil market shock absorbers

From an energy standpoint, Dweik said the global economy relies on Gulf states for two core functions: steady oil supplies and the ability to absorb market shocks.

Spare production capacity concentrated in Gulf producers within OPEC+ allows markets to rebalance during disruptions, making the region a key stabilizer in global oil markets.

The Gulf’s influence extends beyond oil into liquefied natural gas. Qatar accounted for about 18.8% of global LNG exports in 2024, according to International Gas Union data, underscoring how gas prices are exposed to regional disruptions.

Trade and supply chains

The Gulf’s role also spans global trade and logistics, as international supply chains show clear signs of fragility.

Rising risks along maritime routes tied to the region, including the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, are not only delaying shipments but also pushing up transport and insurance costs, adding to global inflationary pressure.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that disruptions in key shipping corridors can raise freight costs and curb global trade when vessels are forced to reroute.

Global impact

Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, said Gulf states are central to global economic stability given their position at the heart of major energy and trade routes.

About 27% of global seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, along with a nearly similar share of LNG supplies, meaning any disruption there amounts to a global supply shock, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Since the war began, shipping traffic through the strait has dropped sharply, prompting Gulf states to act quickly to safeguard energy flows to global markets.

Valecha said Gulf producers have turned to alternative pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and maintain exports.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline runs nearly 1,200 km from Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with a capacity of about 7 million barrels per day.

The United Arab Emirates operates the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which moves crude from inland fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, with a capacity of about 1.5 million barrels per day.

But these alternatives cannot fully replace volumes that typically pass through Hormuz, underscoring the strait’s critical importance to global markets.

Global investments

Beyond energy, Gulf sovereign wealth funds play a key role in stabilizing the global financial system, with combined assets of about $5.6 trillion, or roughly 36% of the world’s sovereign wealth fund assets.

Investments span equities, bonds, and infrastructure worldwide, supporting capital flows and financial stability.

However, Valecha said prolonged tensions could push some funds to redirect investments inward or toward defense spending, with potential knock-on effects for global markets.

The impact of the tensions is already visible. Oil prices have swung sharply since the war began, while maritime shipping costs have climbed.

International Monetary Fund estimates show that a 10% rise in energy prices over a full year could lift global inflation by about 40 basis points and slow global growth by between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points.

Together, these dynamics underscore a shift in the Gulf’s global role. GCC states are no longer just energy suppliers, but a central pillar of global economic stability, across oil and gas, trade, and investment.

As geopolitical and economic shifts deepen, the region’s importance is set to grow, not only as an energy hub but as a key anchor for the global economy in times of crisis.

Business

Yuan Versus the Dollar: Will Hormuz Tensions Reshape the Global Monetary Order?

A liquefied petroleum gas tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
A liquefied petroleum gas tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
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Yuan Versus the Dollar: Will Hormuz Tensions Reshape the Global Monetary Order?

A liquefied petroleum gas tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
A liquefied petroleum gas tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 

As geopolitical tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has floated a proposal to link the passage of energy shipments to payments in currencies other than the US dollar.

The move appears designed to pressure global power centers. While it stops short of a declared currency war, it highlights growing international efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar in energy markets.

This comes as US President Donald Trump calls for an international coalition to secure the strait, casting doubt on Iran’s willingness to negotiate. Diplomacy remains stalled as the conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran enters its seventeenth day.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied any moves toward negotiations or a ceasefire. Trump has also warned that NATO could face a “very bad” future if US allies fail to act to reopen the waterway, even as Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure continue.

Dr. Abdulaziz bin Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, said shifts in energy markets reflect a broader global trend toward currency diversification in international transactions. He argued that Iran’s proposal signals a growing willingness to explore alternatives amid geopolitical change, accelerating debate over the stability of currencies used in energy trade.

According to bin Sager, this is part of a gradual restructuring of the global financial system, particularly as major economies such as China and Russia expand the use of their national currencies in bilateral trade. He pointed to the decline in the dollar’s share of global reserves—from 65.3 percent in 2016 to 59.3 percent in 2024—as evidence of a steady shift.

He noted that countries are seeking to manage geopolitical risk and adopt more flexible economic strategies, reflecting a broader move toward a multipolar monetary system. China promotes the yuan through the Belt and Road Initiative, while Russia advances its currency through bilateral agreements.

Dr. Saeed Sallam, Director of the Vision International Center for Strategic Studies, said that Iran’s demand as limited in immediate practical impact but significant in long-term symbolic terms. He warned that it could increase volatility and uncertainty in energy markets, complicate transactions due to limited yuan liquidity, and drive up maritime insurance and transport costs by 20 to 30 percent along alternative routes.

Rather than stabilizing markets, Sallam argued, the move could fragment oil trade. Limited volumes might be settled in yuan and routed through Hormuz to China, while the rest are diverted via more expensive routes. The result could be sharp increases in gas, fertilizer, and food prices, raising the risk of recession in Asian and European economies.

He continued that China is pursuing a strategy of careful balance. While it may accept limited yuan-based transactions to secure oil imports, it is unlikely to support escalation that threatens stability in the strait, through which roughly 40 percent of its imports pass. Russia, meanwhile, uses the proposal symbolically within the BRICS framework to challenge Washington, though stable energy markets remain essential to its export revenues.

Sallam concluded that Iran’s proposal may accelerate the rhetoric of de-dollarization and contribute to price shocks, but its real impact remains constrained by diplomatic and practical limits. The core issue, he stressed, is not the currency used but whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

For now, the dollar retains its dominant position in global energy trade, though that status could be tested by rapidly evolving military and diplomatic developments.

 

 

Business

World Shares Are Mixed and US Futures Slip as Brent Hovers Above $100 a Barrel

A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
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World Shares Are Mixed and US Futures Slip as Brent Hovers Above $100 a Barrel

A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)

Shares were mixed in Europe and Asia on Tuesday after a drop in oil prices helped send the US stock market to its best day since the war in Iran began.

The reprieve in prices for crude was short-lived, with Brent crude climbing nearly 4% early Tuesday to $104.13 a barrel. US benchmark crude also climbed, to $97.53 per barrel after dipping to about $93 on Monday.

US futures fell back, with the contracts for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3%.

In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gave up early gains to slip 0.1% to 53,700.39 and the Kospi in South Korea jumped 1.6% to 5,640.48.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.1% to 25,668.54, while the Shanghai Composite index dropped 0.9% to 4,049.91.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4% to 8,614.30 after the central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate to 4.1%.

Citing higher fuel prices, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday lifted the cash rate from 3.85% which it set at its Feb. 3 meeting in response to surging inflation. That rise was Australia’s first since November 2023.

Taiwan's Taiex rose 1.5% and India's Sensex picked up 0.6%.

On Monday, the S&P 500 climbed 1% for its biggest gain in five weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8% and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.2%.

The driver for markets has been oil prices, which have spiked from roughly $70 before the United States and Israel began their attacks on Iran. In response, Iran has nearly halted traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil typically sails from the Gulf to customers worldwide. That has oil producers cutting production because their crude has nowhere to go.

The worry in financial markets is that if the strait remains closed for a long time, it could keep enough oil off the market to drive inflation up to a debilitating level for the global economy.

“The panic is still there, just dialed down a notch as crude slipped off the boil. Brent easing back toward $100 flipped the tape from bunker mentality to opportunistic risk-taking in a heartbeat,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

President Donald Trump over the weekend demanded that other countries hurt by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “take care of that passage” and said his country “will help - A LOT!”

The US and Israel have kept pummeling what they describe as military targets in Iran’s capital, and Israel stepped up its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. More than 1 million people have been displaced in Lebanon — roughly 20% of the nation’s population — as UN peacekeepers say Israel is massing ground troops along the border.

Uncertainty over the war's scope and duration have roiled financial markets since the war began just over two weeks ago, though markets have a track record of bouncing back relatively quickly from military conflicts. Many professional investors are expecting that to be the case again, if oil prices don't go too high for too long. That has helped keep US stock prices near their record levels.

Higher prices are complicating the Federal Reserve's mission of balancing growth and inflation as President Donald Trump pushes the central bank to slash interest rates. Traders do not expect the Fed to cut rates at its policy meeting that wraps up on Wednesday.

Nvidia, whose chips are powering much of the world’s move into artificial-intelligence technology rose 1.6% on Monday as its CEO, Jensen Huang, talked up AI's possibilities at a conference, saying he foresaw $1 trillion in demand for AI chips through 2027. It was the strongest single force lifting the S&P 500.

In other dealings early Tuesday, the US dollar rose to 159.18 Japanese yen from 159.05 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1498 from $1.1507.