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Brent Rises on Middle East War Jitters, While WTI Dips Ahead of Inventories Report

An aerial view shows Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
An aerial view shows Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Brent Rises on Middle East War Jitters, While WTI Dips Ahead of Inventories Report

An aerial view shows Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
An aerial view shows Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Brent crude futures edged up in early trade on Thursday as Israeli tanks advanced into Gaza, while US crude futures dipped on the prospect of swelling oil inventories.

Brent crude futures for August delivery rose 8 cents to $85.15 a barrel by 0008 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude for June was down 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.30 per barrel.

A US federal holiday, Juneteenth, kept trading activity subdued.

Israeli troops, backed by tanks, warplanes and drones, moved farther into the Gaza Strip city of Rafah on Wednesday, killing eight people, residents and Palestinian medics said.

Escalating war in the Middle East supports prices as a wider conflict could disrupt oil supply from the region, according to Reuters.

WTI crude, meanwhile, slipped ahead of the US government's oil inventories report, which was delayed by a day due to the national holiday. The Energy Information Administration is due to release last week's oil stocks data at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) on Thursday.

An industry report release on Tuesday showed US crude stocks rose by 2.264 million barrels in the week ended June 14, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures, while gasoline inventories fell.

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How Will Gulf Stock Markets Perform this Summer?

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
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How Will Gulf Stock Markets Perform this Summer?

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)

Financial analysts and market experts predict a downturn for Gulf stock markets this summer. They foresee lower stock values, reduced trading volumes, sectoral stagnation, delayed investment decisions, and a focus on holding strong positions in high-performing large-cap stocks.

This trend is driven by the majority of traders taking their annual vacations during this period. Typically, sectors like travel, tourism, aviation, and hospitality see seasonal growth in summer.

From the start of 2024 to mid-year, Gulf markets have shown mixed results. Muscat Securities Market rose by 3.8%, Bahrain Bourse by 3.5%, and Kuwait Stock Exchange by 1.33%. However, Qatar Stock Exchange dropped by 8.02%, Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange by 5.4%, Saudi Arabia’s main index by 1.99%, and Dubai Financial Market slightly by 0.7%.

Tareq Al-Ateeq, a financial analyst, told Asharq Al-Awsat that investor behavior across Gulf markets tends to align during summer due to holiday seasons and high temperatures, leading to lower liquidity and fluctuating market indices.

Investors are delaying decisions until summer ends, focusing on robust positions in large-cap and defensive stocks, which is expected to dampen market liquidity and activity in July and August 2024.

Certain sectors like travel, tourism, aviation, and hospitality are anticipated to see increased trading during the summer. Some investors aim to capitalize on market downturns by adjusting their sector allocations.

In 2023, markets like Dubai saw a 6% monthly increase, with Saudi Arabia's market index rising by 4%. Oman also experienced a 3.1% increase, while Qatar and Bahrain markets declined by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively.

Key sectors such as consumer goods, utilities, tourism, hospitality, and energy are showing increased trading activity and interest during the summer season.