UK Public Debt Rises to Highest Since 1961 Ahead of Election

Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May. (Reuters)
Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May. (Reuters)
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UK Public Debt Rises to Highest Since 1961 Ahead of Election

Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May. (Reuters)
Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May. (Reuters)

British public debt rose last month to its highest as a share of the economy since 1961, data showed on Friday, adding to the financial challenges the next government will face as soon as it comes to power after a general election in two weeks' time.

Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May, up from 96.1% a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said.

The increase came despite slightly lower-than-expected government borrowing in May, which stood at 15.0 billion pounds compared with economists' median forecast of 15.7 billion pounds in a Reuters poll.

Britain looks headed for a change of government following an election on July 4, as Keir Starmer's Labour Party is far ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives in the polls.

Public debt soared in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the public finances have also been hit by slow growth and a rise in the Bank of England's interest rates to a 16-year high.

Most other Western countries saw big increases in debt over the same period, and British debt levels are below those in the United States, France and Italy.

Borrowing in Britain totaled 33.5 billion pounds in the first two months of the financial year, 0.4 billion more than the same period in 2023, but 1.5 billion pounds less than government budget forecasts had predicted in March.

Consultants at Capital Economics said these lower-than-expected borrowing numbers reflected less public investment, and would offer scant comfort to Britain's next finance minister.

"They do little to reduce the scale of the fiscal challenge that awaits them, in part because of the upward pressure on the debt interest bill from higher interest rates," said Alex Kerr, assistant economist at Capital Economics.

Labour and the Conservatives intend to stick with existing budget rules which require official forecasts - last updated in March - to show that debt as a share of GDP is falling in the fifth year of the forecast.

Higher interest rates than were forecast in March's budget meant Britain's next chancellor now had just 8.5 billion pounds of leeway to meet these rules, down from the historically low 8.9 billion in March, Kerr said.

Both Labour and the Conservatives have pledged not to raise the rate of income tax, value-added tax or other major levies, but government budget forecasts in March showed tax as a share of GDP was on track to reach its highest since 1948.



Gold Eyes Best Quarter in over Eight Years

A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Gold Eyes Best Quarter in over Eight Years

A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)

Gold halted its record run on Friday but remained on track for its best quarter since 2016 after a rally catalysed by an outsized US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while markets braced themselves for a crucial inflation report due later in the day.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,666.50 per ounce as of 1115 GMT, below the all-time peak of $2,685.42 hit in the previous session. It is heading for its best quarter since the first three months of 2016.

US gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,688.90, Reuters reported.

"The market at this point in time has priced in all the good news and there's also some hesitancy from fresh buyers to get involved at these record high levels," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Bullion has risen 29% so far this year, hitting successive record peaks after last week's half-percentage-point cut by the Federal Reserve and the stimulus measures announced by China earlier this week.

Silver prices surged, tracking bullion's strong performance, though some analysts warn that the rally may fade.

"Overall, industrial demand is still supportive for silver. But we need to have a stronger economic performance in China as well as in other developed countries," said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari.

The surge in silver prices is more a spillover impact from gold, Kumari said.

Spot silver eased 0.1% to $31.98 per ounce, after hitting its highest since December 2012 at $32.71 on Thursday. It is set for a third straight week of gains.

"I do believe silver will continue to outperform gold. But as we all know, wherever gold goes, silver tends to go, but faster," Hansen added.

Both gold and silver serve as safe-haven investments, but the latter has more industrial applications, so tends to underperform during recessions and outperform when economies expand.

Inflows into gold exchange-traded funds, particularly from Western investors, are set to rise in coming months, adding yet more positive stimulus for already record high bullion prices. Some banks expect gold to rise towards $3,000.

In other metals, platinum was up 0.5% at $1,012.40 but palladium fell nearly 1.5% to $1,031.75.