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Oil Edges Higher as Demand Expectations Offset Dollar Strength

A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier
A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier
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Oil Edges Higher as Demand Expectations Offset Dollar Strength

A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier
A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

Oil prices firmed slightly on Monday as traders weighed support from expected summer demand and geopolitical tensions against a stronger dollar.
Brent crude futures were up 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $85.39 a barrel by 0850 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $80.86 a barrel, up 13 cents, or 0.2%. Both benchmarks gained about 3% last week for their second consecutive weekly gains.
"The chief underlying reason behind the price strength ... is the growing confidence that global oil inventories will inevitably plunge during the summer in the northern hemisphere," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, referring to seasonal demand for oil products.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a ramp-up in Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries are also underpinning oil prices, Reuters reported.
EU countries on Monday agreed a new package of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, including a ban on reloading Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the EU for further shipment to third countries.
However, a strengthening US currency has made dollar-denominated commodities less attractive for holders of other currencies.
"The US dollar ... appears to have broken higher following better US PMI data on Friday night and political concerns ahead of the French election," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
The dollar index, measuring performance against six major currencies, climbed on Friday and was up slightly on Monday after data showed US business activity at a 26-month high in June.
In Ecuador, state oil company Petroecuador has declared force majeure on deliveries of Napo heavy crude for export after the shutdown of a key pipeline and oil wells owing to heavy rain, sources said on Friday.
In the United States, the number of operating oil rigs fell by three to 485 last week, the lowest since January 2022, Baker Hughes said in a report on Friday.

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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that the Fund is closely monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon with "grave concern" and offered condolences for the loss of life.

"The potential for further escalation of the conflict heightens risks and uncertainty and could have significant economic ramifications for the region and beyond," Kozack said.

According to Reuters, she said it was too early to predict specific impacts on the global economy, but noted that economies in the region have already suffered greatly, especially in Gaza, where the civilian population "faces dire socioeconomic conditions, a humanitarian crisis and insufficient aid deliveries.

The IMF estimates that Gaza's GDP declined 86% in the first half of 2024, Kozack said, while the West Bank's first-half GDP likely declined 25%, with prospects of a further deterioration.

Israel's GDP contracted by about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after the conflict began, and the country has seen only a partial recovery in the first half of 2024, she added.
The IMF will update its economic projections for all countries and the global economy later in October when the global lender and World Bank hold their fall meetings in Washington.
"In Lebanon, the recent intensification of the conflict is exacerbating the country's already fragile macroeconomic and social situation," Kozack said, referring to Israel's airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The conflict has inflicted a heavy human toll on the country, and it has damaged physical infrastructure."
The main channels for the conflict to impact the global economy have been through higher commodity prices, including oil and grains, as well as increased shipping costs, as vessels avoid potential missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea, Kozack said. But commodity prices are currently lower than their peaks in the past year.
"I just emphasize once again that we're closely monitoring the situation, and this is a situation of great concern and very high uncertainty," she added.
Lebanon in 2022 reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a potential loan program, but there has been insufficient progress on required reforms, Kozack said.
"We are prepared to engage with Lebanon on a possible financing program when the situation is appropriate to do so, but it would necessitate that the actions can be taken and decisive policy measures can be taken," Kozack added. "We are currently supporting Lebanon through capacity development assistance and other areas where possible."