IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that the Fund is closely monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon with "grave concern" and offered condolences for the loss of life.

"The potential for further escalation of the conflict heightens risks and uncertainty and could have significant economic ramifications for the region and beyond," Kozack said.

According to Reuters, she said it was too early to predict specific impacts on the global economy, but noted that economies in the region have already suffered greatly, especially in Gaza, where the civilian population "faces dire socioeconomic conditions, a humanitarian crisis and insufficient aid deliveries.

The IMF estimates that Gaza's GDP declined 86% in the first half of 2024, Kozack said, while the West Bank's first-half GDP likely declined 25%, with prospects of a further deterioration.

Israel's GDP contracted by about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after the conflict began, and the country has seen only a partial recovery in the first half of 2024, she added.
The IMF will update its economic projections for all countries and the global economy later in October when the global lender and World Bank hold their fall meetings in Washington.
"In Lebanon, the recent intensification of the conflict is exacerbating the country's already fragile macroeconomic and social situation," Kozack said, referring to Israel's airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The conflict has inflicted a heavy human toll on the country, and it has damaged physical infrastructure."
The main channels for the conflict to impact the global economy have been through higher commodity prices, including oil and grains, as well as increased shipping costs, as vessels avoid potential missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea, Kozack said. But commodity prices are currently lower than their peaks in the past year.
"I just emphasize once again that we're closely monitoring the situation, and this is a situation of great concern and very high uncertainty," she added.
Lebanon in 2022 reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a potential loan program, but there has been insufficient progress on required reforms, Kozack said.
"We are prepared to engage with Lebanon on a possible financing program when the situation is appropriate to do so, but it would necessitate that the actions can be taken and decisive policy measures can be taken," Kozack added. "We are currently supporting Lebanon through capacity development assistance and other areas where possible."
 

 

 

 



Trump Bails 'Big Progress' in Japan Tariff Talks

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts as he speaks to reporters after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding US tariffs, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 17 April 2025. FRANCK ROBICHON/Pool via REUTERS
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts as he speaks to reporters after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding US tariffs, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 17 April 2025. FRANCK ROBICHON/Pool via REUTERS
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Trump Bails 'Big Progress' in Japan Tariff Talks

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts as he speaks to reporters after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding US tariffs, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 17 April 2025. FRANCK ROBICHON/Pool via REUTERS
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts as he speaks to reporters after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding US tariffs, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 17 April 2025. FRANCK ROBICHON/Pool via REUTERS

President Donald Trump touted "big progress" in tariff talks with Japan on Wednesday, in one of the first rounds of face-to-face negotiations since his barrage of duties on global imports roiled markets and stoked recession fears.

Japan had not expected the president to get involved in Wednesday's talks, viewing them as a preliminary, fact-finding mission, a sign that Trump wants to keep tight control over negotiations with dozens of countries expected over coming days and weeks, Reuters said.

Tokyo had also been hoping to limit the scope of the talks to trade and investment matters. But announcing his involvement early Wednesday, Trump said thorny issues including the amount Japan pays towards hosting US troops were among discussion topics.

"A Great Honor to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!" Trump said in a social media message that contained no details of the discussions.

Opposite Trump was Ryosei Akazawa, a close confidant of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who serves in the relatively junior cabinet position of economic revitalization minister.

Speaking to reporters after the talks, Akazawa gave few details but said the parties had agreed to hold a second meeting later this month and that Trump had said getting a deal with Japan was a "top priority".

Exchange rates, which the Trump administration has said Japan and others manipulate to get a trade advantage, were not part of the talks, Akazawa added.

The dollar strengthened against the yen after his remarks on forex, up around 0.5% on the day. Tokyo denies it manipulates its yen currency lower to get make its exports cheaper.

Akazawa held a 50-minute meeting with Trump at the White House before another session with his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that stretched to almost an hour and a half, according to Japanese readouts of the talks.

Japan's prime minister, who has previously said he won't rush to reach a deal and does not plan to make big concessions, sounded a more cautious tone speaking to reporters later in Tokyo.

"Of course, the negotiations will not be easy going forward, but President Trump has stated that he wants to give top priority to the talks with Japan," Ishiba said.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni heads to the White House on Thursday to discuss tariffs imposed on the European Union with Trump, while Bessent has invited South Korea's finance minister to Washington for talks next week.

FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE

Trump has long complained about the US trade deficit with Japan and other countries, saying US businesses have been "ripped off" by trade practices and intentional efforts by other countries to maintain weak currencies.

Japan has been hit with 24% levies on its exports to the United States although these rates have, like most of Trump's tariffs, been paused for 90 days. But a 10% universal rate remains in place as does a 25% duty for cars, a mainstay of Japan's export-reliant economy.

Bessent has said there is a "first mover advantage" given Washington has said more than 75 countries have requested talks since Trump announced sweeping duties on dozens of countries - both friend and foe - earlier this month.

Akazawa declined to comment on the matter, adding only that he strongly requested a revocation of the tariffs and that he believed Washington wanted to secure a deal in the 90-day window.

Washington is hoping to strike deals with countries that would cover tariffs, non-tariff barriers and exchange rates, Bessent has said, though Tokyo had lobbied to keep the latter separate.

Trump earlier this month lambasted Japan for what he said was a 700% tariff on rice, a figure Tokyo disputes. Levies on autos are particularly painful for Japan as they make up nearly a third of shipments to the US, its biggest export market.

Japan hopes that pledges to expand investment in the United States will help to convince the US that the allies can achieve a "win-win" situation without tariffs.

Possible Japanese investment in a multi-billion dollar gas project in Alaska could also feature in tariff negotiations, Bessent said before Wednesday's talks.

"It sounds like the Trump administration really does want a quick deal, which suggests it will be a less substantive deal," said Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory.

"My baseline is that if the US really starts making demands on agriculture and maybe also on some of the auto regulations, it becomes a lot more contentious and hard to do quickly."