عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Business

Oil Eases as Stock Build Raises Specter of Slower US Demand

FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
TT
TT

Oil Eases as Stock Build Raises Specter of Slower US Demand

FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo

Oil prices dipped on Thursday as a surprise build in US stockpiles fueled fears about slow demand from the world's top oil consumer, though declines were capped by worries a potential expansion of the Gaza war may disrupt Middle East supplies.
Brent crude oil futures were down 6 cents, or 0.1%, at $85.19 a barrel, as of 0635 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.80 per barrel, Reuters said.
Both benchmarks had settled slightly higher on Wednesday.
"An expected increase in US inventories of crude oil and gasoline are weighing on the market due to fears of weakening demand," said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.
"But the market is in a tug-of-war situation, underpinned by the prospect that an escalation in the battle between Israel and Hezbollah may hinder supply," he added.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.6 million barrel jump in the country's crude oil stocks last week, surprising analysts polled by Reuters who had expected a 2.9 million-barrel drawdown.
US gasoline stocks also rose by 2.7 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1 million-barrel draw.
Product supplied for motor gasoline, a proxy for demand, fell by about 417,000 barrels per day last week, to 8.97 million bpd. The four-week average for demand is about 2% under last year's levels.
"We believe the market's upside is limited by weak US gasoline demand despite the peak summer driving season kicking in," said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research.
Gasoline margins, reflected by the crack spread between gasoline to Brent and WTI, have trended lower after peaking in March at the $30s-per-barrel range, Jamil said.
"This weakness is further compounded by sluggish diesel demand both in Europe and the US, with margins falling since last August," he added.
Meanwhile, worries of the Gaza war spreading to Lebanon limited price declines.
In the Middle East, cross-border strains between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah have been escalating in recent weeks, stoking fears of an all-out Israel-Hezbollah war that could draw in other regional powers, including major oil producer Iran.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said his country stood in solidarity with Lebanon and called on regional countries' support.
Israeli forces pounded several areas across Gaza on Wednesday, and residents reported fierce fighting overnight in Rafah in the south of the Palestinian enclave.

Most Viewed

 
 
Business

IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
TT
TT

IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that the Fund is closely monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon with "grave concern" and offered condolences for the loss of life.

"The potential for further escalation of the conflict heightens risks and uncertainty and could have significant economic ramifications for the region and beyond," Kozack said.

According to Reuters, she said it was too early to predict specific impacts on the global economy, but noted that economies in the region have already suffered greatly, especially in Gaza, where the civilian population "faces dire socioeconomic conditions, a humanitarian crisis and insufficient aid deliveries.

The IMF estimates that Gaza's GDP declined 86% in the first half of 2024, Kozack said, while the West Bank's first-half GDP likely declined 25%, with prospects of a further deterioration.

Israel's GDP contracted by about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after the conflict began, and the country has seen only a partial recovery in the first half of 2024, she added.
The IMF will update its economic projections for all countries and the global economy later in October when the global lender and World Bank hold their fall meetings in Washington.
"In Lebanon, the recent intensification of the conflict is exacerbating the country's already fragile macroeconomic and social situation," Kozack said, referring to Israel's airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The conflict has inflicted a heavy human toll on the country, and it has damaged physical infrastructure."
The main channels for the conflict to impact the global economy have been through higher commodity prices, including oil and grains, as well as increased shipping costs, as vessels avoid potential missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea, Kozack said. But commodity prices are currently lower than their peaks in the past year.
"I just emphasize once again that we're closely monitoring the situation, and this is a situation of great concern and very high uncertainty," she added.
Lebanon in 2022 reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a potential loan program, but there has been insufficient progress on required reforms, Kozack said.
"We are prepared to engage with Lebanon on a possible financing program when the situation is appropriate to do so, but it would necessitate that the actions can be taken and decisive policy measures can be taken," Kozack added. "We are currently supporting Lebanon through capacity development assistance and other areas where possible."