Oil Prices Edge Higher as Supply Risks Mount

FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
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Oil Prices Edge Higher as Supply Risks Mount

FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading hours on Friday, setting up a third straight weekly jump, as concerns about supply problems from escalating geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions offset signs of weak demand.
Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expire on Friday, rose 15 cents, or 0.2% to $86.54 a barrel by 0020 GMT. The Brent contract for September was also up 0.2% at $85.44 a barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August delivery rose 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.98 a barrel.
Oil prices have shrugged off signs of weak demand in the United States, the biggest oil consuming nation, and rallied higher as cross-border strains between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah escalated. A widening war in the Middle East could draw in countries like Iran, one of the top oil exporters in the region.
The French foreign ministry expressed concern over the situation in Lebanon on Thursday, while Türkiye earlier said it stands in solidarity with Lebanon and called on regional governments' support.
Oil supplies have also come under pressure from weather-related disruptions which could worsen in the coming weeks. Heavy rains have caused Ecuador's production to decline by 100,000 barrels a day over the past week, FGE Energy said on Friday.
The US Gulf Coast, home to a bulk of the country's energy and export infrastructure, could also be hit by adverse weather in the coming days with the US National Hurricane Center tracking at least one weather system that could become a cyclone and headed towards the region.
Brent and WTI futures have gained 1.5% so far on a weekly basis.
On the demand front, rising US crude stockpiles and weak gasoline consumption has kept a ceiling above oil prices. Government data this week showed an unexpected jump in crude inventories in the country as fuel demand weakened.
However, expectations of record travel over the July 4th weekend in the US could lift gasoline demand and help draw stockpiles.



British Assets Gain, Mid-cap Stocks Lead after Labour Election Win

A view of the Palace of Westminster which houses Britain's parliament, during the general election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024. REUTERS/Hannah McKay Purchase Licensing Rights
A view of the Palace of Westminster which houses Britain's parliament, during the general election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024. REUTERS/Hannah McKay Purchase Licensing Rights
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British Assets Gain, Mid-cap Stocks Lead after Labour Election Win

A view of the Palace of Westminster which houses Britain's parliament, during the general election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024. REUTERS/Hannah McKay Purchase Licensing Rights
A view of the Palace of Westminster which houses Britain's parliament, during the general election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024. REUTERS/Hannah McKay Purchase Licensing Rights

British domestic-focussed mid-cap stocks were the biggest gainers on Friday after the centre-left Labour Party surged to a comprehensive win in a parliamentary election with blue chip stocks, government bond prices and the pound higher.

Hopes that the incoming government will provide a period of economic stability after an often tumultuous 14 years of Conservative Party rule sent the FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC), up as much as 1.8% in early trading to its highest since April 2022.

The blue chip FTSE 100 index (.FTSE), was last up 0.2% and the yield on 10-year British government bonds or gilts, dropped 3 basis points to 4.17%, marginally better than other European markets, Reuters reported.

Labour won a massive majority in the 650-seat parliament while Rishi Sunak's Conservatives suffered the worst defeat in the party's long history as voters punished them for a cost of living crisis, failing public services, and a series of scandals.

"A landslide victory provides the sort of clarity and stability that equity markets need in an increasingly volatile world," said Ben Ritchie, head of developed market equities at abrdn.

"If the new government gets this right, businesses with significant exposure to the UK economy should be the likely winners - a shot in the arm in particular for companies in the FTSE 250 and FTSE Small Cap".

British home builders stood out, with an index tracking their shares up 2.3%.

"We think the formation of a Labour-majority government will have a positive impact on housebuilders and construction materials," said Aruna Karunathilake, portfolio manager at Fidelity.

"We expect Labour to reinstate housebuilding targets and perhaps also fund investment in local planning departments... That should alleviate builders’ concerns about planning bottlenecks impeding growth in the medium term."

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said that while Labour's manifesto policies imply relatively limited changes to fiscal policy they would modestly boost demand in the near term.

As a result, they raised their forecasts for British GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points in each of 2025 and 2026.