China's Exports Top forecasts, but Falling Imports Point to More Stimulus

Cars to be exported sit at a terminal in the port of Yantai, Shandong province, China January 10, 2024. China Daily via REUTERS//File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Cars to be exported sit at a terminal in the port of Yantai, Shandong province, China January 10, 2024. China Daily via REUTERS//File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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China's Exports Top forecasts, but Falling Imports Point to More Stimulus

Cars to be exported sit at a terminal in the port of Yantai, Shandong province, China January 10, 2024. China Daily via REUTERS//File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Cars to be exported sit at a terminal in the port of Yantai, Shandong province, China January 10, 2024. China Daily via REUTERS//File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

China's exports grew at their fastest in fifteen months in June, suggesting manufacturers are front-loading orders ahead of tariffs expected from a growing number of trade partners, while imports unexpectedly shrank amid weak domestic demand.
The mixed trade data keeps alive calls for further government stimulus as the $18.6 trillion economy struggles to get back on its feet. Analysts warn that the jury is still out on whether strong export sales in recent months can be sustained given major trade partners are becoming more protective.
"This reflects the economic condition in China, with weak domestic demand and strong production capacity relying on exports," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, according to Reuters.
"The sustainability of strong exports is a major risk for China's economy in the second half of the year. The economy in the U.S. is weakening. Trade conflicts are getting worse."
Outbound shipments from the world's second-biggest economy grew 8.6% year-on-year in value in June, customs data showed on Friday, beating a forecast 8.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 7.6% rise in May.
But imports hit a four-month low, shrinking 2.3% compared with a forecast 2.8% increase and a 1.8% rise the previous month, highlighting the fragility of domestic consumption.
Stronger-than-expected exports have been one of the few bright spots for an economy otherwise struggling for momentum despite official efforts to stimulate domestic demand following the pandemic. A prolonged property slump and worries about jobs and wages are weighing heavily on consumer confidence.

Still, as the number of countries stepping up curbs on Chinese goods increases, so too does the pressure on its exports to prop up progress towards the government's economic growth target for this year of around 5%.
China's trade surplus stood at $99.05 billion in June, the highest in records going back to 1981, compared with a forecast of $85 billion and $82.62 billion in May. The United States has repeatedly highlighted the surplus as evidence of one-sided trade favouring the Chinese economy.
Washington in May hiked tariffs on an array of Chinese imports, including quadrupling duties on Chinese electric vehicles to 100%. Brussels last week confirmed it would impose tariffs on EVs as well, but only up to 37.6%.
Chinese exporters are also on edge heading into U..elections in November in case either major party tips fresh trade restrictions.
Türkiye last month announced it would impose a 40% additional tariff on Chinese-made EVs, and Canada said it was considering curbs.
 



Egypt Seeks Up to 60 LNG Shipments

A general view of the Nile River from the Egyptian capital, Cairo (Reuters).
A general view of the Nile River from the Egyptian capital, Cairo (Reuters).
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Egypt Seeks Up to 60 LNG Shipments

A general view of the Nile River from the Egyptian capital, Cairo (Reuters).
A general view of the Nile River from the Egyptian capital, Cairo (Reuters).

Egypt is in advanced talks with global energy and trading firms to secure between 40 and 60 shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG), aiming to meet urgent energy needs before summer demand peaks, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.
Cairo is negotiating with companies including Saudi Aramco, Trafigura, and Vitol for LNG supply deals extending through 2028, signaling a strategic shift from exporter to long-term importer amid declining domestic production, Asharq Bloomberg reported.
Sources say the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) has received 14 bids for supply contracts ranging from 18 months to three years. The rising demand this year could push Egypt’s monthly LNG import bill to nearly $3 billion starting in July, up from approximately $2 billion last year.
This move reflects Egypt’s effort to lock in long-term contracts to reduce exposure to volatile spot market prices. It also underscores the country’s deepening energy challenges: a sharp drop in gas production, increasing population, and soaring summer temperatures are straining domestic supply and forcing reliance on global markets.
Contract awards are expected next week. Plans call for 110 LNG shipments in the second half of 2025, 254 in 2026, and 130 in the first half of 2027.
One source said bids price LNG at 80 to 95 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu) above the European benchmark, with payment deferrals of up to 180 days. European gas futures currently trade at about $12 per MMBtu, though LNG cargoes typically sell at a discount.
Egypt is also expanding infrastructure, including the addition of floating storage and regasification units, and is negotiating long-term supply deals with Qatar.
A recent Goldman Sachs report estimated Egypt’s 2024 energy deficit at over $11.3 billion, doubling the current account shortfall to 6.2% of GDP, compared to 3.2% the previous year.
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has directed the government to preempt power outages this summer, according to a presidential statement this week.
A government source told Reuters Egypt is also considering importing at least 1 million tons of fuel oil, though LNG remains the preferred option due to its more flexible financing.
With gas output in February hitting its lowest level in nine years, Egypt imported 1.84 million tons of LNG in early 2025—roughly 75% of total 2024 imports, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.