France 'Dangerously Exposed' in Case of Economic Shock, National Audit Office Says

A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
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France 'Dangerously Exposed' in Case of Economic Shock, National Audit Office Says

A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)

France's public finances and its rising deficit are worrying and leave the country "dangerously exposed" in the event of a new, macroeconomic shock, the national public audit office said on Monday.
The audit office, known as the Cour des Comptes, reiterated it was vital for France, the euro zone's second biggest economy, to reduce its public deficit, Reuters reported.
"Due to delays in making real structural reforms, the cost of public debt, which has been exacerbated by recurring deficits and the weight of these deficits, has become more and more expensive," it said.
This "has hampered other spending, hinders the ability to make investments and leaves the country dangerously exposed in case of a new macroeconomic shock," it added.
It said France's public financing programs did not adequately take into account costs linked to policies aimed at protecting the environment, such as using more renewable energy.
Last month, the European Commission said France and six other countries should be disciplined for running budget deficits in excess of EU limits, with deadlines for reducing the gaps to be set in November.
France had a budget gap of 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022 and above the EU's deficit limit of 3%.
French public debt was 110.6% of GDP in 2023. The EU Commission expects this to increase to 112.4% this year and to 113.8% in 2025 while the EU limit is 60%.
President Emmanuel Macron's government has pledged to meet the EU's deficit limit of 3% by 2027, but the outlook has been complicated by this month's parliamentary election which resulted in a hung parliament.
Credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P Global have warned of negative impacts on the French economy from the political deadlock, where no political party won an outright majority.



Dollar Rises with Crypto as Markets Turn in Favor of a Trump Victory

FILED - 22 May 2023, Berlin: A Bitcoin coin lies on a screen showing the Bitcoin - US dollar exchange rate. Photo: Fernando Gutierrez-Juarez/dpa
FILED - 22 May 2023, Berlin: A Bitcoin coin lies on a screen showing the Bitcoin - US dollar exchange rate. Photo: Fernando Gutierrez-Juarez/dpa
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Dollar Rises with Crypto as Markets Turn in Favor of a Trump Victory

FILED - 22 May 2023, Berlin: A Bitcoin coin lies on a screen showing the Bitcoin - US dollar exchange rate. Photo: Fernando Gutierrez-Juarez/dpa
FILED - 22 May 2023, Berlin: A Bitcoin coin lies on a screen showing the Bitcoin - US dollar exchange rate. Photo: Fernando Gutierrez-Juarez/dpa

The dollar rose broadly on Monday and cryptocurrencies jumped as trades for a victory by Donald Trump in the upcoming US elections gathered steam in the wake of an attempted assassination of the former US President.
Trump, 78, was holding a campaign rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend when shots rang out, hitting his right ear and leaving his face streaked with blood. His campaign said he was doing well, Reuters said.
Investors reacted by narrowing the odds of a Trump victory come November, which in turn pushed the dollar and US Treasury yields higher on Monday, alongside cryptocurrencies.
"Sympathy votes could increase the odds of a Trump victory as more of his supporters may now feel the need to turnout at polling booths in November to vote for him," said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC.
Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 66 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 38 cents. The current odds indicate that Republicans are twice as likely to win the election as Democrats.
Against the dollar, the euro fell 0.2% to $1.0888, while sterling dipped 0.13% to $1.2973.
The greenback similarly rose 0.48% against the Norwegian crown and was last 0.35% higher against the Swedish crown.
"A bias for a supported, possibly even stronger, USD is likely to play out if the US heads into Trump 2.0," said Vishnu Varathan, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank.
"This is admittedly more from other major currencies being undermined from a conspiracy of antagonistic US trade and geo-political posturing rather than undisputed allure of USD."
Long-dated US bond yields meanwhile ticked higher on expectations that a Trump win would see policies that would drive up government debt and stoke inflation.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last up roughly three basis points at 4.2158%.
Elsewhere, crypto prices surged, with bitcoin last up roughly 5% at $62,997. Ether jumped nearly 6% to $3,368.14.
Trump has presented himself as a champion for cryptocurrency, although he has not offered specifics on his proposed crypto policy.
In other currencies, the Australian dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6777, while the New Zealand dollar slid 0.43% to $0.6092.
The dollar index was little changed at 104.21.
STILL STRUGGLING
Headlines from China also grabbed investors' attention on Monday, as data showed the world's second-largest economy grew much slower than expected in the second quarter, weighed down by a protracted property downturn and as job insecurity squeezed domestic demand.
Separate figures released earlier in the day showed China's new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in June, with the battered sector struggling to find a bottom despite government support measures to control oversupply and bolster confidence.
The Chinese yuan last inched 0.16% lower to 7.2626 per dollar in the onshore market.
"On net, it's a negative outcome. It does show that the second-quarter growth momentum appears to be weakening," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
"The second-quarter momentum weakening kind of implies that we'll need more support to get the economy to the 5% target for the whole year."
China's once-in-five-year gathering of top officials, which usually ushers in policy changes, kicked off on Monday and the four-day plenum will be watched for measures to support the patchy recovery in the world's second-largest economy.
Elsewhere, the yen reversed some of its gains from late last week and last stood at 157.88 per dollar, though remained not too far from a roughly one-month high of 157.30 hit on Friday.
Tokyo was thought to have intervened in the market to prop up the battered Japanese currency last week in the wake of a cooler-than-expected US inflation report, with Bank of Japan data suggesting that authorities may have spent up to 3.57 trillion yen ($22.4 billion) to do so on Thursday.