Dollar Rises with Crypto as Markets Turn in Favor of a Trump Victory

FILED - 22 May 2023, Berlin: A Bitcoin coin lies on a screen showing the Bitcoin - US dollar exchange rate. Photo: Fernando Gutierrez-Juarez/dpa

The dollar rose broadly on Monday and cryptocurrencies jumped as trades for a victory by Donald Trump in the upcoming US elections gathered steam in the wake of an attempted assassination of the former US President.
Trump, 78, was holding a campaign rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend when shots rang out, hitting his right ear and leaving his face streaked with blood. His campaign said he was doing well, Reuters said.
Investors reacted by narrowing the odds of a Trump victory come November, which in turn pushed the dollar and US Treasury yields higher on Monday, alongside cryptocurrencies.
"Sympathy votes could increase the odds of a Trump victory as more of his supporters may now feel the need to turnout at polling booths in November to vote for him," said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC.
Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 66 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 38 cents. The current odds indicate that Republicans are twice as likely to win the election as Democrats.
Against the dollar, the euro fell 0.2% to $1.0888, while sterling dipped 0.13% to $1.2973.
The greenback similarly rose 0.48% against the Norwegian crown and was last 0.35% higher against the Swedish crown.
"A bias for a supported, possibly even stronger, USD is likely to play out if the US heads into Trump 2.0," said Vishnu Varathan, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank.
"This is admittedly more from other major currencies being undermined from a conspiracy of antagonistic US trade and geo-political posturing rather than undisputed allure of USD."
Long-dated US bond yields meanwhile ticked higher on expectations that a Trump win would see policies that would drive up government debt and stoke inflation.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last up roughly three basis points at 4.2158%.
Elsewhere, crypto prices surged, with bitcoin last up roughly 5% at $62,997. Ether jumped nearly 6% to $3,368.14.
Trump has presented himself as a champion for cryptocurrency, although he has not offered specifics on his proposed crypto policy.
In other currencies, the Australian dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6777, while the New Zealand dollar slid 0.43% to $0.6092.
The dollar index was little changed at 104.21.
STILL STRUGGLING
Headlines from China also grabbed investors' attention on Monday, as data showed the world's second-largest economy grew much slower than expected in the second quarter, weighed down by a protracted property downturn and as job insecurity squeezed domestic demand.
Separate figures released earlier in the day showed China's new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in June, with the battered sector struggling to find a bottom despite government support measures to control oversupply and bolster confidence.
The Chinese yuan last inched 0.16% lower to 7.2626 per dollar in the onshore market.
"On net, it's a negative outcome. It does show that the second-quarter growth momentum appears to be weakening," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
"The second-quarter momentum weakening kind of implies that we'll need more support to get the economy to the 5% target for the whole year."
China's once-in-five-year gathering of top officials, which usually ushers in policy changes, kicked off on Monday and the four-day plenum will be watched for measures to support the patchy recovery in the world's second-largest economy.
Elsewhere, the yen reversed some of its gains from late last week and last stood at 157.88 per dollar, though remained not too far from a roughly one-month high of 157.30 hit on Friday.
Tokyo was thought to have intervened in the market to prop up the battered Japanese currency last week in the wake of a cooler-than-expected US inflation report, with Bank of Japan data suggesting that authorities may have spent up to 3.57 trillion yen ($22.4 billion) to do so on Thursday.