Gold Drifts Higher as US Rate Cut Optimism Boosts Appeal

A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Gold Drifts Higher as US Rate Cut Optimism Boosts Appeal

A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)

Gold prices nudged higher on Tuesday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a September rate cut, while investors awaited more US economic data for further monetary policy cues.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,423.89 per ounce by 0140 GMT. On Monday, prices hit their highest level since May 20, when bullion scaled a record peak of $2,449.89.

US gold futures were flat at $2,429.90.

"Powell continued to lay the groundwork for upcoming policy easing. A rate cut in September is now fully priced in by markets, which may keep sentiments in gold prices well-supported in the lead-up," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Ron, Reuters reported.

Powell said on Monday the three US inflation readings over the second quarter of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion, remarks that suggest a turn to interest rate cuts may not be far off.

When interest rates decrease, the allure of non-yielding bullion typically increases.

Investors were awaiting US retail sales data due at 1230 GMT on Tuesday and comments from Fed governors Christopher Waller and Adriana Kugler later this week for further direction.

A subdued retail sales report may underpin gold prices on dovish Fed bets, while a break to a fresh high will mark a continuation of gold's broader upward trend, which may leave the $2,600 level on watch next, Yeap said.

Elsewhere, India's four-week platinum imports from mid-June eclipsed 2023's total as bullion dealers exploited a loophole by registering alloys containing around 90% gold as platinum to avoid higher duties, government and industry officials told Reuters.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 0.9% to $30.72 per ounce and platinum eased 0.4% to $991.40, while palladium rose 0.2% to $951.84.



Oil Holds its Ground as Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Holds its Ground as Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil held its ground on Monday as downward pressure from concern about demand in top importer China offset support from strong demand elsewhere, OPEC+ supply restraint and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The reaction of the wider markets to the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump was in focus. The US dollar steadied after gains earlier in the session that had weighed on oil, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures were up 3 cents at $85.06 a barrel by 1326 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 7 cents to $82.28.

"Chinese data including refinery runs and crude imports are not supportive," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "But demand growth elsewhere is still healthy."

Crude fell last week after four weeks of gains as hopes of strong US summer demand were countered by concern over demand in China.

Chinese data on Monday added to that concern. The world's second-largest economy grew by 4.7% in the April to June quarter, official figures showed, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2023.

On Friday separate figures showed China's crude oil imports fell 2.3% in the first half of this year.

However, the volatile situation in the Middle East continues to provide a geopolitical premium for oil, though ample spare capacity held by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC has limited price support, analysts say.

"Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including volatile Israel-Hamas clashes and stalled peace talks, could remain a driving factor for oil prices due to concerns over regional stability," said George Pavel, general manager at Capex.com Middle East.

The oil market is also broadly underpinned by supply cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers. Iraq's oil ministry said at the weekend that it will compensate for overproduction since the beginning of 2024.

Market sentiment was supported by a US inflation report for June that came in below expectations, raising hopes for an interest rate reduction, though challenges persisted as China’s crude imports in June declined, highlighting ongoing market difficulties, Pavel added.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak later in the day, and is likely to be asked for his reaction to last week's subdued inflation reading.

Markets are pricing in a 96% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier.