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Safe-haven Gold Firms on US Recession Fears, Rate-cut Bets

Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Safe-haven Gold Firms on US Recession Fears, Rate-cut Bets

Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Gold prices drifted higher on Monday, aided by worries that the United States could be headed for a recession and rising bets that the Federal Reserve will likely need to start cutting interest rates aggressively.
Spot gold rose 0.14% to $2,446.83 per ounce, as of 0519 GMT, after falling 1% earlier in the session, Reuters said.
US gold futures rose 0.8% to $2,488.50.
"Gold is picking up safe-haven flows, with financial markets in a risk-averse mindset to start the week," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
"Markets are in a flux about the US economic outlook and whether rate cuts will arrive quickly enough from the Fed."
Share markets tumbled and bonds rallied in Asia as US recession fears sent investors rushing from risk assets.
Data on Friday showed that US job growth in July fell short of expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, pointing to possible weakness in the labor market and greater vulnerability to recession.
Traders are pricing a more than 70% chance of the US central bank lowering rates by 50 basis points in September, compared with an 11.5% chance a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding bullion.
Meanwhile, on Friday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin maintained a cautious outlook, stating he is not ready to adjust his monetary policy.
Investors will keep a tab on the final July S&P Global services and ISM on-manufacturing PMI due later in the day.
They also kept a close eye on the Middle East conflict, with the Pentagon announcing that the US military will deploy additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the Middle East to strengthen defense against threats from Iran and its allies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Spot silver was down 0.4% at $28.43 per ounce, platinum fell 1.23% to $946.10 and palladium declined 0.9% to $882.09.

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BP Nears Deals for Oil Fields, Curbs on Gas Flaring in Iraq

British Prime Minster Keir Starmer (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
British Prime Minster Keir Starmer (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
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BP Nears Deals for Oil Fields, Curbs on Gas Flaring in Iraq

British Prime Minster Keir Starmer (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
British Prime Minster Keir Starmer (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 14 January 2025. (EPA)

Iraq and British oil giant BP are set to finalize a deal by early February to develop four oil fields in Kirkuk and curb gas flaring, Iraqi authorities announced Wednesday.

The mega-project in northern Iraq will include plans to recover flared gas to boost the country's electricity production, they said.

Gas flaring refers to the polluting practice of burning off excess gas during oil drilling. It is cheaper than capturing the associated gas.

The Iraqi government and BP signed a new memorandum of understanding in London late Tuesday, as Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and other senior ministers visit Britain to seal various trade and investment deals.

"The objective is to enhance production and achieve optimal targeted rates of oil and gas output," Sudani's office said in a statement.

Iraq's Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani told AFP after the new accord was signed that the project would increase the four oil fields' production to up to 500,000 barrels per day from about 350,000 bpd.

"The agreement commits both parties to sign a contract in the first week of February," he said.

Ghani noted the project will also target gas flaring.

Iraq has the third highest global rate of gas flaring, after Russia and Iran, having flared about 18 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023, according to the World Bank.

The Iraqi government has made eliminating the practice one of its priorities, with plans to curb 80 percent of flared gas by 2026 and to eliminate releases by 2028.

"It's not just a question of investing and increasing oil production... but also gas exploitation. We can no longer tolerate gas flaring, whatever the quantity," Ghani added.

"We need this gas, which Iraq currently imports from neighboring Iran. The government is making serious efforts to put an end to these imports."

Iraq is ultra-dependent on Iranian gas, which covers almost a third of Iraq's energy needs.

However, Teheran regularly cuts off its supply, exacerbating the power shortages that punctuate the daily lives of 45 million Iraqis.

BP is one of the biggest foreign players in Iraq's oil sector, with a history of producing oil in the country dating back to the 1920s when it was still under British mandate.

According to the World Bank, Iraq has 145 billion barrels of proven oil reserves -- among the largest in the world -- amounting to 96 years' worth of production at the current rate.