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Safe-haven Gold Firms on US Recession Fears, Rate-cut Bets

Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Safe-haven Gold Firms on US Recession Fears, Rate-cut Bets

Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Gold prices drifted higher on Monday, aided by worries that the United States could be headed for a recession and rising bets that the Federal Reserve will likely need to start cutting interest rates aggressively.
Spot gold rose 0.14% to $2,446.83 per ounce, as of 0519 GMT, after falling 1% earlier in the session, Reuters said.
US gold futures rose 0.8% to $2,488.50.
"Gold is picking up safe-haven flows, with financial markets in a risk-averse mindset to start the week," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
"Markets are in a flux about the US economic outlook and whether rate cuts will arrive quickly enough from the Fed."
Share markets tumbled and bonds rallied in Asia as US recession fears sent investors rushing from risk assets.
Data on Friday showed that US job growth in July fell short of expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, pointing to possible weakness in the labor market and greater vulnerability to recession.
Traders are pricing a more than 70% chance of the US central bank lowering rates by 50 basis points in September, compared with an 11.5% chance a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding bullion.
Meanwhile, on Friday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin maintained a cautious outlook, stating he is not ready to adjust his monetary policy.
Investors will keep a tab on the final July S&P Global services and ISM on-manufacturing PMI due later in the day.
They also kept a close eye on the Middle East conflict, with the Pentagon announcing that the US military will deploy additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the Middle East to strengthen defense against threats from Iran and its allies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Spot silver was down 0.4% at $28.43 per ounce, platinum fell 1.23% to $946.10 and palladium declined 0.9% to $882.09.

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Chevron Earnings Slide

FILE - A man walks past a tanker at a Chevron gas station in San Francisco, Oct. 23, 2023. (AP)
FILE - A man walks past a tanker at a Chevron gas station in San Francisco, Oct. 23, 2023. (AP)
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Chevron Earnings Slide

FILE - A man walks past a tanker at a Chevron gas station in San Francisco, Oct. 23, 2023. (AP)
FILE - A man walks past a tanker at a Chevron gas station in San Francisco, Oct. 23, 2023. (AP)

Chevron Corp on Friday posted sharply weaker second-quarter earnings and the oil major's CEO discounted the chance to close a $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corp before mid-2025, sending shares down 3%.
Shares were off 9% since Wednesday following company statements saying a Hess deal closing could well be pushed back by another year, if not blocked entirely.
Chevron is counting on the Hess acquisition to establish a foothold in Guyana, home to the largest oil discovery in nearly two decades. It also hopes the deal will mitigate risks associated with the company's performance-challenged oil projects in Australia and Kazakhstan, where operational issues again hit production, pushing maintenance work into the third quarter.
The company had warned oil output this quarter would slip along with refining margins, but investors were surprised at the magnitude of the declines.
Quarterly earnings fell 19% to $2.55 per share, well below a year ago and 38 cents below Wall Street's consensus estimate, Reuters reported.
"This quarter was a little light due to some operational and other discrete items that impacted results," CEO Michael Wirth told analysts.
The company's plan to enter Guyana's lucrative offshore oil fields was shaken by a challenge from Exxon Mobil. A slow arbitration process looks to drag the deal closing well into 2025.
Asked by analysts about the prospect of a compromise with Exxon, CEO Wirth said the idea would be "sensible" and that Chevron had pursued it, without success. "It doesn't appear that is how this is going to end up," he said.
Exxon claims its joint operating agreement with Hess and China's CNOOC Ltd gives it the right of first refusal to Hess' Guyana properties.
Chevron reported earnings fell sharply to $4.4 billion, or $2.43 per share, in the quarter, from $6 billion a year before.
It reported adjusted earnings of $4.7 billion, or $2.55 per share, down from $5.8 billion, or $3.08 per share, a year ago. In contrast, Exxon beat Wall Street estimates on strong oil production in US shale and Guyana's oil field.
Chevron's earnings from pumping oil and gas fell 9.4% on weakness outside the US Earnings from fuels and chemical operations tumbled about 60%. Refining suffered from weak margins that also hit rivals Exxon and Shell.
Oil refiners overall made less money selling gasoline in the second quarter, as demand softened after production had soared earlier this year. Companies had two years of stellar profits after ramping up production in the travel boom after COVID-19 shut-ins dissipated.
"Despite recent operational downtime and softer margins, we remain poised to deliver significant long-term earnings and cash flow growth," CEO Wirth said.
HESS DEAL DELAY
On Wednesday, Chevron said an arbitration panel that will evaluate Exxon's challenge to its Hess acquisition should have a decision between June and August 2025. Exxon's Chief Financial Officer Kathryn Mikells told Reuters she expects a hearing in late May and a decision on the dispute by September 2025.
Until earlier this week, Chevron expected to close the deal by the end of the year.
CALIFORNIA
Chevron said it would relocate its headquarters to Texas from California, continuing an exodus of oil companies from the state due to higher taxes, stricter climate regulations and depleting oil fields.
Chevron expects all corporate functions to migrate to Houston over the next five years. Positions in support of its California operations, which includes oil fields and two refineries, will remain in San Ramon.
Chevron CEO Wirth and Vice Chairman Mark Nelson will move to Houston before the end of 2024, the company said.
Chevron currently has roughly 7,000 employees in the Houston area and about 2,000 employees in San Ramon.