Gold Firms as US Rate-cut Optimism, Geopolitical Risks Lend Support

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO Purchase Licensing Rights
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO Purchase Licensing Rights
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Gold Firms as US Rate-cut Optimism, Geopolitical Risks Lend Support

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO Purchase Licensing Rights
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO Purchase Licensing Rights

Gold prices drifted higher on Wednesday driven by safe-haven demand and rising bets that the US Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates as early as September.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,402.43 per ounce, as of 1242 GMT, having settled lower in the previous four sessions. US gold futures gained 0.5% to $2,442.70.

Gold is seeing some "stabilization as some interest develops in the physical gold markets in the far East; geopolitical tensions are still supportive," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell, Reuters reported.

"It's possible that some distressed sellers from the weekend/Monday will be looking to re-establish their positions as gold has done its usual job by providing liquidity ahead of potential margin calls."

Prices fell as much as 3% on Monday, caught in a global sell-off driven by fears of a US recession.

Bullion is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment.

Traders have altered their rate cut expectations following the soft jobs report last week, with nearly 105 basis points of cuts anticipated by year-end and a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The outlook for looser monetary policy provides a supportive element for gold as a non-yield-bearing asset, and this factor has combined with strong central bank buying to deliver a positive performance for the yellow metal in 2024 so far, Kinesis Money said in a note.

Meanwhile, China's central bank held back on buying gold for its reserves for a third straight month in July, official data showed.

Spot silver edged 0.1% lower to $27.02 per ounce.

The expected economic slowdown will dent industrial demand and that is likely to cap the upside for silver, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

Platinum rose 1.8% to $928.25 and palladium was up 2.5% to $896.65.

 

 

 



China Metals Tumble on Recession Fears Amid Escalating Trade War 

A woman looks at her phone in the financial district of Shanghai on April 7, 2025. (AFP)
A woman looks at her phone in the financial district of Shanghai on April 7, 2025. (AFP)
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China Metals Tumble on Recession Fears Amid Escalating Trade War 

A woman looks at her phone in the financial district of Shanghai on April 7, 2025. (AFP)
A woman looks at her phone in the financial district of Shanghai on April 7, 2025. (AFP)

Base metal prices in China tumbled on Monday amid escalating trade war concerns and recession fears, while London metals flipped to a decline after rising on arbitrage trading.

The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) dropped 7.0% to 73,640 yuan per metric ton as of 0805 GMT, hovering near its lowest level in over three months since January 3.

SHFE market was closed last Friday for a holiday.

"The retaliatory tariff makes us worry about trade war, which will impede economic growth globally," a metals trader said.

Top metals consumer China hit back on Friday with additional 34% tariffs on all US goods from April 10, after US President Donald Trump imposed a 34% tariff on most Chinese goods as part of his sweeping reciprocal tariffs.

Meanwhile, the benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) lost 0.5% to $8,733 per ton. Eearlier in the day, copper rose 3% on arbitrage trading.

"When the SHFE market opened in the morning, arbitrage traders actively traded on both SHFE and LME, capitalizing on the price gap to generate profit. Their activity increased market liquidity, which in turn pushed LME metals prices higher," a second base metals trader said.

"Then in the afternoon, the western traders participated in trading, and worries about recession took over," the second trader said.

The traders requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Arbitrage trading between LME and SHFE happens when traders buy metals on an exchange where it's cheaper and sell it where it's more expensive, profiting from the price difference.

SHFE aluminium slid 3.7% to 19,685 yuan a ton, zinc lost 2.2% to 22,625 yuan, lead fell 3.1% to 16,660 yuan, while nickel was down 7.5% to 118,640 yuan, tin fell 8.6% to 267,800 yuan.

Among other metals, LME aluminium lost 1.0% to $2,355 a ton, lead declined 1.5% to $1,878, zinc lost 2.2% to $2,599, tin was down 4.9% at $33,650 and nickel was down 3.1% at $14,305 a ton.

LME aluminium, lead and zinc rose between 0.5% and 1.6% earlier in the day.