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Oil Holds on to Last Week’s Gains Buoyed by Mideast Tensions

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Holds on to Last Week’s Gains Buoyed by Mideast Tensions

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Monday, holding on to most of last week's more than 3% gains, supported by geopolitical tensions and better economic data.

Brent crude futures fell 7 cents, or 0.09%, to $79.59 a barrel by 0021 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2 cents, or 0.03%, to $76.86.

"Traders remain mindful of simmering tensions in the Middle East," ANZ analysts said in a note, Reuters reported. .

The risk of an escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continued to support prices after Iran and Hezbollah vowed to retaliate for the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.

The Israeli incursion into Gaza intensified on Saturday with an airstrike on a school compound that killed at least 90 people, according to the Gaza Civil Emergency Service, though Israel said the death toll was inflated. Hamas cast doubt on its participation in new ceasefire talks on Sunday.

Brent ended last week up more than 3.5% on the week, while WTI gained more than 4%, on supportive economic data and increased hopes of a US interest rate cut.

Three US central bankers said last week that inflation appeared to be cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as next month.

China's consumer prices rose faster than expected in July, and US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week.

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Lebanon's Bonds Soar as Traders Place Counterintuitive Bets

The Lebanese national flag flutters in Beirut, Lebanon, August 18, 2020. (Reuters)
The Lebanese national flag flutters in Beirut, Lebanon, August 18, 2020. (Reuters)
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Lebanon's Bonds Soar as Traders Place Counterintuitive Bets

The Lebanese national flag flutters in Beirut, Lebanon, August 18, 2020. (Reuters)
The Lebanese national flag flutters in Beirut, Lebanon, August 18, 2020. (Reuters)

Israel's airstrikes in Lebanon are inflicting destruction that could set its economy back by years.

But the defaulted country's bonds have climbed to two-year highs, gaining a whopping 44% since late September, as traders snap them up for pennies on the dollar.

Investors reckon the weakening of Hezbollah could precipitate a shake-up of Lebanon's fractured political system and potentially an economic plan to pull the country out of default, according to Reuters.

"The reason bonds have rallied is that the market thinks that the Lebanese political class might finally be able to agree a political path forward and an economic reform plan without Hezbollah in the picture," said Anthony Symond at abrdn.

"This would pave the way for the Eurobonds to eventually be restructured."

The jump still leaves Lebanon's dollar bond maturing in 2025 trading at a paltry 8.5 cents on the dollar - a fraction of the 70-cent level at which bonds are considered distressed.

Lebanon tumbled into default in the spring of 2020 after the country's financial system plunged into a deep economic crisis in 2019. With an effectively non-functioning government wracked by discord and corruption, few expect a debt deal anytime soon.

"Lebanese bonds started getting bids after the death of Nasrallah," said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager with Neuberger Berman, referring to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whose death was announced on Sept. 28.

"Lebanon was in the 'it could not get worse' category," said Nazli, adding that the latest events could spark change.

Bruno Gennari, emerging markets strategist with KNG Securities, said rumors that Washington could use Hezbollah setbacks to push Lebanon to appoint its first president in two years had given hope.

"Is all about Hezbollah getting weaker," he said.

S&P Global Ratings said last week Israel's military action in Lebanon "put severe pressure" on Lebanon's already battered economy, and would "further delay economic and financial reforms, and the longer-term recovery of fiscal and external accounts."

S&P has a selective default rating on Lebanon's foreign currency debt.

Given their incredibly low prices, any glimmers of good news could boost Lebanon's bonds again, Nazli said

"If you see any headline on a presidential election, or even just a schedule for one - that could be a sign that things are moving forward," he said.