Lebanon Central Bank Governor Says 'Working Hard' to Prevent Grey-listing

A view of Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon (File photo: Reuters)
A view of Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon (File photo: Reuters)
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Lebanon Central Bank Governor Says 'Working Hard' to Prevent Grey-listing

A view of Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon (File photo: Reuters)
A view of Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon (File photo: Reuters)

Lebanon's acting central bank governor said on Thursday that his institution was still striving to prevent being placed on a "grey list" of countries under special scrutiny by a financial crime watchdog.

Being added to the Financial Action Task Force's grey list would be another major blow to a country in financial tailspin since 2019, with depositors still locked out of most of their pre-crisis savings and many foreign corresponding banks shunning Lebanon's financial system.

Reuters first reported in May 2023 that Lebanon had received a preliminary evaluation warranting grey-listing, with gaps in several categories including its anti-money laundering measures, transparency on beneficial ownership of firms and legal assistance in asset freezing and confiscation.

After the initial assessment, Lebanon was granted a year to address those gaps before a final ruling that is set to be announced at the FATF's plenary in October of this year.

"The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will issue a decision this coming fall and we are still working hard to prevent Lebanon from being placed on the grey list," acting central bank governor Wissam Mansouri said, addressing a meeting of the Union of Arab Banks in Beirut.

Mansouri said Lebanon had received low scores on measures to confiscate illicit wealth or address money laundering, and that the country needed to develop an action plan to address the remaining gaps.

In 2023, a diplomatic source and a financial source familiar with the matter said that the central bank's special investigations commission was lobbying FATF member states in a bid to change the score.

Being put on the FATF grey list could disrupt a country's capital flows, according to the International Monetary Fund, with banks cutting ties to customers in high-risk countries to reduce compliance costs.

Such a listing also risks reputational damage, credit ratings adjustments, trouble obtaining global finance and higher transaction costs.

In Lebanon's case, the listing would represent an indictment of the financial system at a painful time. The country has been slow to make progress on key reforms requested by the IMF in April 2022 as prerequisites for a deal with the fund. The economy has slowed further after more than 10 months of hostilities between armed group Hezbollah and the Israeli military in parallel with the Gaza war.



Euro Currency Emerges a Winner from Market Turmoil

Euro and US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Euro and US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Euro Currency Emerges a Winner from Market Turmoil

Euro and US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Euro and US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

The euro is trading at its highest this year against the dollar, emerging as a clear winner from the recent ructions in global currency markets that have unsettled a strong dollar and halted a relentless slide in Japan's yen.

Having broken decisively above the symbolic $1.10 level , the euro's more than 2.5% gain in August sets the currency up for its best month since November.

Traders, distracted up until now by the yen's sudden surge after a surprise July 31 Bank of Japan rate hike and a broad-dollar pounding as expectations for US interest rate cuts grow, are paying attention.

After all, history shows $1.10 is not an easy level to crack and as recently as April, some analysts speculated the euro could weaken to parity.

It's now the second best performing major currency versus the dollar this year after sterling, and is at its highest in trade-weighted terms on record, though that is also down to weakness in emerging market currencies.

The gains on the dollar, forecast to be modest from here, are nevertheless notable as US Federal Reserve rate cut talk coincides with speculation that further European Central Bank easing could be limited by sticky service-sector inflation, Reuters reported.

"It's a rate differential story," said Commerzbank currency analyst Volkmar Baur.

"Inflation is coming down on both sides (of the Atlantic), but the Fed is expected to move a little bit more aggressively on the way down, and that closes the rate spreads a little bit and gives way for a stronger euro."

The ECB, which cut rates in June, could deliver at least two more 25 basis points reductions, market pricing suggests.

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In contrast, traders see 94 bps of Fed cuts across its three remaining meetings this year -- implying three 25 bps moves, with a good chance of one larger one. That's a change of around 30 bps from early August; ECB pricing has moved much less.

This shift followed weak US labor market data, which sparked recession fears and jolted stocks and bonds. Markets have since calmed, but policy easing expectations remain.

For sure, it's not just the euro that has strengthened against the dollar in August, but the single currency is where there are the fewest complications for traders looking for a relatively safe FX bet.

The yen is volatile after the unwind of a massive carry trade. Sterling has gained less in August after a UK rate cut and French political risks, that hurt the euro in June, have eased.

"We've seen some risks taken out from the euro like the French election," said Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International.

"It's now becoming a cleaner central bank story."