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US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits ticked up in the latest week, but appeared to be steadying near a level consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market that should set the stage for the Federal Reserve to kick off interest rate cuts next month.
A slowdown in overall US business activity this month as firms faced diminished ability to push through price increases added to the evidence that the economy is slowing and inflation is downshifting to a degree that should allow Fed officials to focus more attention on the job market, Reuters reported.

With a rate cut now broadly expected next month, interest rates on home loans have already begun dropping, and that helped fuel a larger-than-expected rebound in existing home sales last month.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended Aug. 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

The latest data should continue to allay fears that the labor market is rapidly deteriorating, first raised after a sharper-than-expected slowdown in job growth in July, which also saw the unemployment rate rise to a post-pandemic high of 4.3%.
Indeed, the latest claims data covers the survey week for this month's employment report from the Labor Department, and the leveling off in new filings points to "a small decline in the unemployment rate in August," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said in a client note.

"Claims are leveling off on a trend basis, consistent with our view that, while the labor market is softening, it isn't weak enough to warrant anything more than a 25 (basis point) rate cut at the Fed's September meeting," she said.
Fed officials have said they are keenly watching the labor market, aware that waiting too long to cut interest rates could cause serious harm.
Layoffs remain historically low, however, with much of the slowdown in the labor market coming from firms scaling back hiring, trailing an immigration-induced surge in labor supply.

The Fed's 525 basis points worth of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 are curbing demand.
The US central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range for more than a year. With a first rate cut now widely expected at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, the market focus is on how large a reduction it will be - a quarter or a half percentage point.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.863 million during the week ending Aug. 10, the claims report showed.

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Will Tariffs Accelerate Free Trade Deals?

Container cargo ships docked at Bangkok port (Reuters)
Container cargo ships docked at Bangkok port (Reuters)
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Will Tariffs Accelerate Free Trade Deals?

Container cargo ships docked at Bangkok port (Reuters)
Container cargo ships docked at Bangkok port (Reuters)

More than 70 countries are waiting for their turn to sit at the negotiating table with US officials, as they scramble to avoid a wave of new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration under a policy the White House has described as a “global trade rebalancing.”

As diplomatic and trade delegations rush to arrange urgent meetings in Washington, key questions are emerging over what options these nations have in order to avert a trade escalation — and whether they can secure exemptions from the new duties.

As some countries consider leveraging trade pressure or economic alliances in response, analysts warn that what the US administration calls a “preventive trade war” could trigger sweeping changes in the structure of global commerce.

In the Gulf region, however, analysts believe the impact of Washington’s decisions remains limited. They say Gulf states have enough flexibility to reposition themselves and mitigate the fallout from the new US measures.

Saudi economist Dr. Ihsan A. Buhulaiga says it is too early to speak of a final framework for global trade flows, arguing that Trump’s tariff decisions appear more like negotiating tactics than irreversible policy shifts.

“These moves seem more like bargaining positions than fixed policies,” A. Buhulaiga told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Many countries and blocs, including the European Union, are watching closely before reacting in ways that might provoke President Trump — as was the case with China.”

A. Buhulaiga said Trump’s tariff hikes have eroded trust between the United States and its key trading partners — China, Mexico, Canada, and the EU.

“Trump’s approach is focused on generating revenue for the US Treasury from imports, with little regard for the broader consequences,” he said.

“That stance has already triggered sharp volatility — not just in equity markets, but also in bonds, especially US government debt.”

While the impact of US tariffs on Gulf states is expected to be limited, economists say the ongoing trade war is unlikely to accelerate free trade agreements between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and major economic blocs.

“For Gulf countries, including the region’s two largest economies — Saudi Arabia and the UAE — the effect of US tariffs is minimal,” said A. Buhulaiga.

“But pursuing free trade agreements with other blocs now would be risky, especially if that includes China, given the current tensions between Beijing and Washington,” he added.

A. Buhulaiga noted that tariff increases are primarily aimed at China, and pointed out that efforts to strike trade deals between the GCC and other economic alliances have taken decades with little progress.

“There’s no sign on the horizon that any agreements will be signed soon,” he said.

Meanwhile, Saudi global trade expert Dr. Fawaz Alamy explained that when the World Trade Organization (WTO) was founded, member states agreed to divide countries seeking accession into three developmental tiers.

He said advanced economies — including the United States, Canada, the European Union, and Japan — committed to fully adopting WTO rules without exceptions.

Developing nations such as China, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and most Arab and Islamic countries were allowed limited exemptions, while least-developed countries, particularly in Africa, were granted broader leniency.

“To promote globalization, WTO members agreed to open their markets, lock in tariff rates at agreed levels, and avoid technical barriers to imports,” Alamy told Asharq Al-Awsat.