PM: Egypt Eyes Shift from Commodity Subsidies to Cash Payments by July 2025

FILE PHOTO: Birds fly during sunset with Cairo skyline visible in the background, during foggy cold weather, Egypt February 1, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Birds fly during sunset with Cairo skyline visible in the background, during foggy cold weather, Egypt February 1, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo
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PM: Egypt Eyes Shift from Commodity Subsidies to Cash Payments by July 2025

FILE PHOTO: Birds fly during sunset with Cairo skyline visible in the background, during foggy cold weather, Egypt February 1, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Birds fly during sunset with Cairo skyline visible in the background, during foggy cold weather, Egypt February 1, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo

Egypt could begin transitioning from subsidizing essential commodities to providing direct cash assistance to its poorest citizens as early as the next fiscal year (July to June), Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said on Thursday.
Currently, Egypt subsidizes essential commodities for more than half of its population. Over 60 million people have access to discounted prices on staples like pasta, vegetable oil and sugar through state-run outlets, while at least 10 million more benefit from subsidized bread.
“There is widespread consensus that cash subsidies are the way forward,” Madbouly told a press conference, noting that the Ministry of Supply, which oversees Egypt’s subsidy program, is exploring various scenarios for this significant policy shift.
Madbouly expressed optimism that the initial phase of the transition could start in the upcoming fiscal year, provided that consensus was reached on the matter at a year-old national political dialogue that is discussing a variety of reforms.
However, Reuters said that he emphasized that the transition would unfold gradually, in several stages.
The National Dialogue, initiated by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in April 2022 amid one of Egypt’s most severe economic crises, aims to generate political, economic, and social reform recommendations for the President's consideration.
The government also subsidizes fuel but has outlined plans to reduce these subsidies, aiming to restore fuel prices to their full cost by December 2025.



Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, after a gain of 4% in the previous session, as markets weighed up the chance of supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict and as they ponder a direct US involvement.

Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 1.2%, to $75.52 a barrel by 0918 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 88 cents, also 1.2%, to $73.96 per barrel.

US President Trump warned on social media on Tuesday that US patience was wearing thin, and called for an "unconditional surrender" from Iran.

While he said there was no intention to kill Iran's leader Ali Khamenei "for now," his comments suggested a tougher stance toward Iran as he weighs whether to deepen US involvement.

A source familiar with internal discussions said one of the options Trump and his team are considering included joining Israel on strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

A direct US involvement threatens to widen the confrontation further, putting energy infrastructure in the region at higher risk of attack, analysts say.

"The biggest fear for the oil market is the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said in a note.

"Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through this chokepoint. A significant disruption to these flows would be enough to push prices to $120 [a barrel]," the bank added.

Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.

Meanwhile, Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva Ali Bahreini said on Wednesday that Tehran has conveyed to Washington that it will respond firmly to the United States if it becomes directly involved in Israel's military campaign.

Markets are also looking ahead to a second day of US Federal Reserve discussions on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

However, the conflict in the Middle East and the risk of slowing global growth could potentially push the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in July, sooner than the market's current expectation of September, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst with IG.

Lower interest rates generally boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Confounding the decision for the Fed, however, is the Middle East conflict's potential creation of a new source of inflation via surging oil prices.

US crude stocks fell by 10.1 million barrels in the week ended June 13, market sources told Reuters, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official Energy Information Administration data is due later on Wednesday.