African Leaders in Beijing Eyeing Big Loans and Investment

People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
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African Leaders in Beijing Eyeing Big Loans and Investment

People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)

African leaders descend on China's capital this week, seeking funds for big-ticket infrastructure projects as they eye mounting great power competition over resources and influence on the continent.

China has expanded ties with African nations in the past decade, furnishing them with billions in loans that have helped build infrastructure but also sometimes stoked controversy by saddling countries with huge debts.

China has sent hundreds of thousands of workers to Africa to build its megaprojects, while tapping the continent's vast natural resources including copper, gold, lithium and rare earth minerals.

Beijing has said this week's China-Africa forum will be its largest diplomatic event since the Covid-19 pandemic, with leaders of South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and other nations confirmed to attend and dozens of delegations expected.

African countries were "looking to tap the opportunities in China for growth", Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst at consultancy Development Reimagined, told AFP.

China, the world's number two economy, is Africa's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade hitting $167.8 billion in the first half of this year, according to Chinese state media.

Beijing's loans to African nations last year were their highest in five years, research by the Chinese Loans to Africa Database found. Top borrowers were Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya.

But analysts said an economic slowdown in China has made Beijing increasingly reluctant to shell out big sums.

China has also resisted offering debt relief, even as some African nations have struggled to repay their loans -- in some cases being forced to slash spending on vital public services.

Since the last China-Africa forum six years ago, "the world experienced a lot of changes, including Covid, geopolitical tension and now these economic challenges", Tang Xiaoyang of Beijing's Tsinghua University told AFP.

The "old model" of loans for "large infrastructure and very rapid industrialization" is simply no longer feasible, he said.

The continent is a key node in Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure project and central pillar of Xi Jinping's bid to expand China's clout overseas.

The BRI has channeled much-needed investment to African countries for projects like railways, ports and hydroelectric plants.

But critics charge Beijing with saddling nations with debt and funding infrastructure projects that damage the environment.

One project in Kenya, a $5 billion railway -- built with finance from Exim Bank of China -- connects the capital Nairobi with the port city of Mombasa.

But a second phase meant to continue the line to Uganda never materialized, as both countries struggled to repay BRI debts.

In central Africa, Western and Chinese firms are racing to secure access to rare minerals.

The continent has rich deposits of manganese, cobalt, nickel and lithium -- crucial for renewable energy technology.

The Moanda region of Gabon alone contains as much as a quarter of known global reserves of manganese, and South Africa accounts for 37 percent of global output of the metal.

Cobalt mining is dominated by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for 70 percent of the world total. But in terms of processing, China is the leader, at 50 percent.

Mounting geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which are clashing over everything from the status of self-ruled Taiwan to trade, also weigh on Africa.

Washington has warned against what it sees as Beijing's malign influence.

In 2022, the White House said China sought to "advance its own narrow commercial and geopolitical interests (and) undermine transparency and openness".

Beijing insists it does not want a new cold war with Washington but rather seeks "win-win" cooperation, promoting development while profiting from boosted trade.

"We do not just give aid, give them help," Tsinghua University's Tang said.

"We are just partners with you while you are developing. We are also benefiting from it."

But analysts fear African nations could be forced to pick sides.

"African countries lack leverage against China," Development Reimagined's Eguegu said.

"Some people... think you can use the US to balance China," he said. "You cannot."



Indian State Refiners May Buy Mideast Spot Oil to Replace Russian Shortfall

A worker rides a bicycle at the Bharat Petroleum Corporation refinery in Mumbai, April 24, 2008. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/FILE PHOTO
A worker rides a bicycle at the Bharat Petroleum Corporation refinery in Mumbai, April 24, 2008. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/FILE PHOTO
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Indian State Refiners May Buy Mideast Spot Oil to Replace Russian Shortfall

A worker rides a bicycle at the Bharat Petroleum Corporation refinery in Mumbai, April 24, 2008. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/FILE PHOTO
A worker rides a bicycle at the Bharat Petroleum Corporation refinery in Mumbai, April 24, 2008. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/FILE PHOTO

Indian state refiners are considering tapping the Middle East crude market as spot supply from their top supplier Russia have fallen, three refining sources said, in a move that could support prices for high-sulphur oil.
The three large state refiners- Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum- are short of 8-10 million barrels of Russian oil for January loading, the sources told Reuters.
The refiners fear continued problems in securing Russian oil in the spot market could continue in coming months as Moscow's own demand is rising and it has to meet commitments under the OPEC pact.
However, they added that they can draw from their inventories to meet crude processing needs in March.
Two of the sources said their company may lift more crude from Middle East suppliers under optional volumes in term contracts or to float a spot tender for high-sulphur oil.

IOC, the country's top refiner, previously floated spot tenders to buy sour grades in March 2022.
The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
India became the largest importer of Russian crude after the European Union, previously the top buyer, imposed sanctions on Russian oil imports in response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russian oil accounts for more than a third of India's energy imports.
Russia's spot crude exports since November as its refineries resumed operations after the maintenance season and poor weather disrupted shipping activities, traders said.
“We have to explore alternative grades as Russia's own demand is rising and it has to meet its commitments under OPEC,” said another of the three sources.
Russia, an ally of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, promised to make extra cuts to its oil output from the end of 2024 to compensate for overproduction earlier.
Also, most supplies from Russia's state oil firm Rosneft are tied up in a deal with Indian private refiner Reliance Industries, Reuters reported earlier this month.
The new deal accounts for roughly half of Rosneft's seaborne oil exports from Russian ports, leaving little supply available for spot sales, sources told Reuters earlier this month.
India has no sanctions on Russian oil, so refiners there have cashed in on supplies made cheaper than rival grades by the penalties by at least $3 to $4 per barrel.
Sources said there are traders in the market that are willing to supply Russian oil for payments in Chinese Yuan but noted that state refiners stopped paying for Russian oil in the Chinese currency after advice from the government last year.
“It is not that alternatives to Russian oil are not available in the market but our economics will suffer,” the first source said.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, reversing the prior session's losses, buoyed by a slightly positive market outlook for the short term, despite thin trade ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Brent crude futures were up 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $73.05 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.62 a barrel at 0742 GMT, Reuters reported.
FGE analysts said they anticipated the benchmark prices would fluctuate around current levels in the short term “as activity in the paper markets decreases during the holiday season and market participants stay on the sidelines until they get a clearer view of 2024 and 2025 global oil balances.”
Supply and demand changes in December have been supportive of their current less-bearish view so far, the analysts said in a note.
“Given how short the paper market is on positioning, any supply disruption could lead to upward spikes in structure,” they added.
Some analysts also pointed to signs of greater oil demand over the next few months.
“The year is ending with the consensus from major agencies over long 2025 liquids balances starting to break down,” Neil Crosby, Sparta Commodities' assistant vice president of oil analytics, said in a note.
Also supporting prices was a plan by China, the world's biggest oil importer, to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.
China's stimulus is likely to provide near-term support for WTI crude at $67 a barrel, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.