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IMF, Ukraine Reach Deal That Would Give It Access to Some $1.1 Bln 

People walk on a pedestrian bridge during the sunset in city center of Kyiv, Ukraine, September 9, 2024. (AP)
People walk on a pedestrian bridge during the sunset in city center of Kyiv, Ukraine, September 9, 2024. (AP)
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IMF, Ukraine Reach Deal That Would Give It Access to Some $1.1 Bln 

People walk on a pedestrian bridge during the sunset in city center of Kyiv, Ukraine, September 9, 2024. (AP)
People walk on a pedestrian bridge during the sunset in city center of Kyiv, Ukraine, September 9, 2024. (AP)

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it had reached a preliminary agreement with Ukraine that would give the war-torn country access to about $1.1 billion in financial assistance.

The agreement follows what Kyiv said on Tuesday were "difficult" talks and is subject to approval by the fund's executive board, which the IMF said in a statement is expected to happen in "coming weeks".

The IMF is a key international lender to Kyiv and its four-year $15.6 billion program is a crucial part of a bigger global economic support package to Ukraine as it gears up for a third winter trying to fend off Russia's full-scale invasion.

"Russia's war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating impact on the country and its people," Gavin Gray, who led the IMF's monitoring mission to Kyiv for the fifth review of the lending program, said in a statement.

"Skillful policymaking, the adaptability of households and firms, and robust external financing has helped support macroeconomic and financial stability."

The IMF, however, said that the risks to Ukraine "remain exceptionally high" with an economic slowdown expected due to the impact of the war on labor market and Russia's continued attacks on the energy infrastructure, among other factors.

Kyiv is spending about 60% of its total budget to fund its army and relies heavily on financial support from its Western partners to pay pensions and wages to public sector employees and finance social and humanitarian spending.

Ukraine has received about $98 billion in financial aid from its Western partners since the start of the war, finance ministry data showed.

The IMF urged the Kyiv government, which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reshuffled last week, to "respect financing constraints and debt sustainability objectives" in the 2025 budget and look for ways to increase domestic revenues.

The government has said previously it plans to raise taxes and has already implemented other fiscal measures, including increasing import and excise duties.

Ukraine also won an agreement from bondholders to restructure and write down its debt.

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US Involvement in Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Fears of Strait of Hormuz Closure

A general view of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
A general view of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
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US Involvement in Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Fears of Strait of Hormuz Closure

A general view of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
A general view of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)

As the conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, experts warn that direct US involvement could trigger a dangerous escalation, most notably, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.

If Iran were to follow through on this long-standing threat, the consequences would be severe, cutting off roughly 20% of the world’s oil exports and 30% of global natural gas shipments.

Russian strategic analyst Andrey Ontikov told Asharq Al-Awsat that fears remain real and growing, particularly if the war expands.

If the United States is drawn into the war alongside Israel, the likelihood of Iran moving to close the Strait of Hormuz becomes the most serious and effective threat, he said.

Ontikov explained that such a move would paralyze global energy flows from the Gulf, sending oil and gas prices soaring and inflicting major economic damage on both exporting and importing nations.

The resulting disruption would directly affect international shipping, raise transport and insurance costs, and cause energy prices to spike, further straining already fragile global supply chains, he added.

He also warned that broader geopolitical implications are at stake. A regional war involving the Strait of Hormuz could jeopardize key trade corridors, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s North-South transport corridor.

That would have a direct economic impact on both Beijing and Moscow, forcing countries to look urgently for alternative trade routes, Ontikov said.

Oil prices are already rising, though Ontikov believes that if tensions ease, the global economic impact could be contained. However, a prolonged or widened war would paint a far more troubling picture.

Saudi economic expert Dr. Ibrahim Alomar, head of Sharah Consulting, echoed these concerns.

“If the conflict stays limited, the effects may include a temporary $10–$20 increase in oil prices and limited disruption to financial and shipping markets,” he said. “But a broader war could push oil prices above $120, causing inflation and a sharp global economic slowdown.”

Alomar warned that in the worst-case scenario - where the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed - oil prices could skyrocket past $200, triggering hyperinflation, severe recession, and a collapse in global financial markets.

“Such a scenario could ultimately reshape the global economic system, depending on who emerges least damaged from the crisis,” he concluded.