Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Cut China's 2024 Growth Forecast

Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
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Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Cut China's 2024 Growth Forecast

Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have lowered their full-year projections for China's economic growth to 4.7%, after the world's second-largest economy's industrial output slowed to a five-month low in August.

Weak economic activity in August has ramped up attention on China's slow economic recovery and highlighted the need for further stimulus measures to shore up demand.

The faltering growth has prompted global brokerages to scale back their 2024 projections to below government's target of around 5%.

Goldman Sachs earlier expected full-year growth for the economy at 4.9%, while Citigroup had forecast growth at 4.8%.

China's industrial output in August expanded 4.5% year-on-year, slowing from the 5.1% pace in July and marking the slowest growth since March, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday.

Goldman Sachs said in a note dated Sept. 15, “We believe the risk that China will miss the 'around 5%' full-year GDP growth target is on the rise, and thus the urgency for more demand-side easing measures is also increasing.”

The bank maintained the country's 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%.

However, Citigroup on Sunday trimmed its 2025 year-end forecast for China's GDP growth to 4.2% from 4.5% due to a lack of major catalysts for domestic demand.

“We believe fiscal policy needs to step up to so as to break the austerity trap and timely deploy growth support,” economists at Citigroup said.

In a separate development, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is making “tangible investments” to ensure the Big Four firm has high quality and sustainable business in China, it said in a memo to staff after Chinese regulators on Friday hit the company's mainland unit with a record penalty.

PwC Zhong Tian LLP was hit with a six-month suspension and a record fine of 441 million yuan ($62 million) on Friday over the firm's audit of failed property developer China Evergrande Group .



Oil Prices Slide as Tepid Chinese Demand Counters US Output Concerns

This photoraph shows an oil well in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on July 23, 2024. (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV / AFP)
This photoraph shows an oil well in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on July 23, 2024. (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV / AFP)
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Oil Prices Slide as Tepid Chinese Demand Counters US Output Concerns

This photoraph shows an oil well in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on July 23, 2024. (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV / AFP)
This photoraph shows an oil well in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on July 23, 2024. (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV / AFP)

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, as fears of weaker demand in China weighed on market sentiment, while focus turned to the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting that concludes on Wednesday.

Providing a floor to prices were prospects of lower US crude stockpiles and concerns over US production in the aftermath of Hurricane Francine.

Brent crude futures for November were down 48 cents, or 0.66% to $72.27 a barrel, as of 1002 GMT. US crude futures for October slipped 37 cents, or 0.53%, to $69.72 a barrel, Reuters reported.

"Oil prices have been in recovery mode since Wednesday, perhaps on supply concerns after Hurricane Francine in the US Gulf of Mexico, as well as expectations of lower US crude stockpiles," said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM.

"That said, prices are pulling back today, perhaps as participants considered the aforementioned developments as temporary variables in the oil equation, remaining worried about weakening global demand, especially in China."

In China, oil refinery output fell for a fifth month in August amid declining fuel demand and weak export margins, government data showed on Saturday.

Both contracts settled higher in the previous session as output remained constrained. More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the US Gulf of Mexico remained offline due to Hurricane Francine, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) on Monday.

The Fed is expected to start its easing cycle on Wednesday, with Fed funds futures showing markets are now pricing in a 69% chance that the US central bank will cut rates by 50 basis points.

"The Fed is expected to lower interest rates for the first time in more than four years this week ... but recent weak economic data and hawkish comments by members of the Fed have led investors to believe the move could be more aggressive," Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty said.

A lower interest rate will reduce the cost of borrowing and can potentially lift oil demand by supporting economic growth.
Investors were also watching out for an expected drop in US crude inventories, which likely fell by about 200,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 13, based on a Reuters poll.