Oil Climbs on Middle East Escalation Fears, US Fed Rate Cut 

A chemical/oil tanker (L) passes a container ship at the Port of Los Angeles on September 20, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Getty Images North America / AFP)
A chemical/oil tanker (L) passes a container ship at the Port of Los Angeles on September 20, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Getty Images North America / AFP)
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Oil Climbs on Middle East Escalation Fears, US Fed Rate Cut 

A chemical/oil tanker (L) passes a container ship at the Port of Los Angeles on September 20, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Getty Images North America / AFP)
A chemical/oil tanker (L) passes a container ship at the Port of Los Angeles on September 20, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Getty Images North America / AFP)

Oil prices rose on Monday, buoyed by concerns that heightened conflict in the Middle East may curtail regional supply and expectations last week's outsized US interest rate cut will support demand.

Brent crude futures for November were up 22 cents, or 0.3% at $74.71 a barrel at 0705 GMT. US crude futures for November were up 26 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.26.

Both contracts rose in the previous session on support from the US interest rate cut and a dip in US supply in the aftermath of Hurricane Francine. Oil prices climbed last week for a second week.

A softer economic outlook from top consumers China and the US capped further gains.

"Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have edged up a notch between Israel and Hezbollah, which could leave oil prices well-supported on the risks of a wider regional conflict," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

"However, price gains have been somewhat more measured, which may reflect some reservations over the actual impact on oil supplies, given that the Middle East conflict has been dragging for some time now with little disruptions so far."

The Israeli military launched its most widespread wave of air strikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah, simultaneously targeting Lebanon's south, eastern Bekaa valley and northern region near Syria in nearly a year of conflict.

The latest attacks came amid some of the heaviest cross-border exchanges of fire in a conflict raging alongside the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

The conflict has escalated sharply in the past week after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members exploded. The attack was widely blamed on Israel, which has not confirmed or denied responsibility.

While both oil benchmarks rose more than 4% last week on the back of the US rate cut, weaker demand sentiment in top oil importer China is capping the upswing, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, in a note.

"The demand for fuel is still up in the air," she said, adding that the US rate cut "raised concerns that the Fed may have envisioned ailing labor markets".

Last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point, a larger decrease in borrowing costs than many expected.

Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand, but analysts and market participants are concerned the central bank may see a slowing job market.



Japan's Core Inflation Rate Slows in September

FILE PHOTO: Media members observe the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Media members observe the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
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Japan's Core Inflation Rate Slows in September

FILE PHOTO: Media members observe the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Media members observe the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo

Japanese inflation slowed in September with prices up 2.4 percent on-year, not including volatile fresh food, official data showed Friday.
The core Consumer Price Index eased from 2.8 percent in August as the pace of increase in electricity and gas prices relented, the internal affairs ministry said.
Despite the slowdown, the rate remained above the Bank of Japan's two percent target, set over a decade ago as part of efforts to boost the stagnant economy, reported AFP.
The target has been surpassed every month since April 2022, although the bank has questioned to what extent that is down to temporary factors such as the Ukraine war.
"The resumption of electricity subsidies resulted in a plunge in headline inflation in September," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.
Thieliant predicted a further deceleration of core inflation in October, but noted that the subsidies "should be phased out completely by December, which should lift inflation".
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates in March for the first time since 2007 and again in July, in initial steps towards normalizing its ultra-loose monetary policies.
New Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said this month that the environment was not right for another interest rate increase.
After Ishiba took office in early October, perceptions that he favored hiking borrowing costs and the possibility that he could raise taxes triggered a surge in the yen and stock market volatility.
One dollar bought 150 yen on Friday morning after the Japanese currency weakened from levels around 149.35 the day before.
Excluding both fresh food and energy, Japanese prices rose 2.1 percent in September.
"We expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain around two percent until early next year, when it should gradually fall below two percent," Thieliant said.
"Accordingly, we still expect the Bank of Japan to press ahead with another interest rate hike before year-end."