Türkiye Inflation Expected to Fall in September for First Time Since 2021

People shop at a popular market in Istanbul. (Local media)
People shop at a popular market in Istanbul. (Local media)
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Türkiye Inflation Expected to Fall in September for First Time Since 2021

People shop at a popular market in Istanbul. (Local media)
People shop at a popular market in Istanbul. (Local media)

Annual inflation in Türkiye is expected to fall, forecasts showed, shortly before the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will reveal inflation figures on Thursday.

Inflation in Istanbul, one of the country’s largest cities and vital economic centers, showed a year-on-year decline while continuing to rise on a monthly basis.

A Reuters poll showed on Monday that Türkiye’s annual inflation is expected to continue its decline in September and fall below the central bank's policy rate (50%) for the first time since 2021.

The median estimate of 19 economists showed annual inflation of 48.3% in September, down from 51.97% in August.

Forecasts ranged from 47.8% to 49.1%. Month-on-month, inflation is seen rising to 2.2%, with forecasts ranging between 2% and 2.8%.

Monthly inflation was high in January and February, largely due to a big minimum wage hike and new-year price updates, before slowing to some 3.2% in March and April. After dipping in June, inflation rose to 3.23% in July on the back of mid-year price adjustments.

Monthly inflation was 2.47% in August on the back of a natural gas price hike for residential users, the first such price adjustment in almost two years.

Türkiye's annual consumer inflation rate slowed to 71.60% in June. It fell to 51.97% in August, decelerating from 61.78% in July.

At the same time, inflation in Istanbul rose by 3.9% on a monthly basis last September, while annual inflation fell to 59.18%.

The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) said on Tuesday that the Cost of Living Index for wage earners in Istanbul, which reflects retail price movements, increased by 3.90% compared to the previous month, while the Wholesale Price Index, which tracks wholesale price movements, rose by 4.67%.

It said that compared to September of the previous year, retail prices increased by 59.18%, while wholesale prices rose by 47.89%.

A Türkiye Household Inflation Expectations Survey (TEBA), prepared by the Koç University in collaboration with the Konda Research and Consulting Company, revealed that annual inflation is expected to reach 94% by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank published on Tuesday its forecasts for Türkiye’s inflation, economic growth, interests rates and exchange rate.

The report, authored by Yigit Onay, highlighted declining inflation and improvements in the current account deficit as key developments for the upcoming year.

The bank expects inflation to drop further to around 42% by the end of 2024, although rigid prices in the services sector could hinder a faster decline. Inflation is projected to fall to 23% in 2025.

A combination of lower energy bills and reduced gold demand is expected to shrink the deficit to 1.6% of GDP in 2024. By the end of this year, Deutsche Bank estimates the deficit will narrow to $20 billion.

The budget deficit, which stood at 5.2% of GDP in 2023, is expected to shrink to 5% next year, it says.



A Century of Partnership: How Oil Forged the US-Saudi Strategic Alliance

The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
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A Century of Partnership: How Oil Forged the US-Saudi Strategic Alliance

The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat

Long before the iconic 1945 meeting between King Abdulaziz Al Saud and US President Franklin D. Roosevelt aboard the USS Quincy in Egypt’s Suez Canal, the seeds of a historic partnership had already been planted. More than a decade earlier, American oil experts had landed on Saudi soil, drawn not by diplomacy, but by geology.

Their presence in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, on the shores of the Arabian Gulf, gave rise to a new chapter in international relations. From modest beginnings, the Saudi-American partnership evolved into one of the most significant bilateral relationships in the modern Middle East, anchored in energy cooperation, reinforced through political trust, and tested across decades of global and regional upheaval.

Oil First: The 1933 Concession Agreement

The turning point came just a year after the unification of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932. On May 29, 1933, King Abdulaziz authorized his Minister of Finance, Abdullah Al-Sulaiman, to sign an oil exploration concession with the Standard Oil Company of California (Socal), now known as Chevron. Represented by Lloyd Hamilton, the company created a subsidiary - the California Arabian Standard Oil Company (CASOC) - to manage operations within the Kingdom.

The 60-year concession marked the beginning of a partnership that would transform both nations. After decades of exploration and expansion, the Saudi government began acquiring stakes in the company, starting with 25% in 1973, increasing to 60% in 1974, and culminating in full ownership in 1980. Eight years later, the company was renamed the Saudi Arabian Oil Company - Aramco.

American Presence in Dhahran

While American missionary efforts in the Gulf dated back to the late 19th century, particularly in Bahrain and Kuwait, Saudi Arabia remained largely untouched by these early religious and medical missions. The true bridge between the US and Saudi Arabia came through oil.

Following the 1933 agreement, American geologists and engineers arrived in the eastern city of Dhahran. Initial drilling in the mid-1930s was unsuccessful, until Socal’s chief geologist Max Steineke led an operation that resulted in the discovery of commercial oil in 1938. This breakthrough transformed the region and the bilateral relationship.

A pivotal moment in the history of Saudi Arabia - and in the global oil industry - occurred on March 4, 1938, when oil first flowed from the initial test well in Dhahran, known as Dammam Well No. 7. This event established Saudi Arabia as the country with the largest oil reserves and one of the world’s most important energy sources. The well, drilled to a depth of 1,441 meters, is located on the hill known as Jabal Dhahran and later became famously known as “Prosperity Well” (Bi’r Al-Khair).

Marking the beginning of a new era, King Abdulaziz embarked on a historic journey in the spring of 1939. Accompanied by a large delegation, he crossed the red sands of the Dahna Desert to reach the eastern part of the Kingdom on the Arabian Gulf. His visit coincided with the completion of the pipeline stretching 69 kilometers from the Dammam oil field to the port of Ras Tanura.

There, a symbolic moment took place: King Abdulaziz personally turned the valve to load the first shipment of Saudi crude oil onto a tanker. Thus, on May 1, 1939, Saudi Arabia exported its very first barrel of crude oil to the world.

The Quincy Meeting and the Birth of a Strategic Partnership

As World War II drew to a close, global attention turned to energy. The United States, anticipating a post-war recovery and growing energy needs, saw in Saudi Arabia a stable, resource-rich partner with vast oil reserves. At the same time, the Kingdom, newly unified and eager for development, welcomed American expertise and investment.

On February 14, 1945, just 82 days before the war officially ended in Europe, President Roosevelt met King Abdulaziz aboard the USS Quincy at the Great Bitter Lake. The meeting, now known as the “Quincy Summit,” laid the foundations for a strategic partnership that extended beyond oil. It recognized Saudi Arabia as a key geopolitical player and spiritual heart of the Islamic world, and cemented the United States as its primary global partner.

Soon, Dhahran became home to a growing American community. Workers lived in self-contained compounds that included Western-style homes, schools, shops, recreational clubs, and even small churches. Though initially isolated from Saudi society, this community played a significant role in introducing new technologies, industrial practices, and modern urban planning to the Kingdom.

By 1938, Aramco employed 2,745 people, including 236 Americans and more than 100 other expatriates. The arrival of American families, including the wives of engineers and executives, signaled the beginning of deeper cultural exchange. In 1937, two of the first American women, Annette Henry and Nellie Carpenter, arrived in the Eastern Province. To accommodate the growing expatriate presence, Aramco shipped the first mobile, air-conditioned homes to the desert.

Strengthening Ties Through Crises

Over the following decades, the US-Saudi relationship deepened. As Aramco expanded, the American community grew, spreading across eastern cities like Ras Tanura, Abqaiq, and Jubail. The bonds formed in the workplace gradually extended to neighborhoods and schools. Although cultural differences remained, trust and mutual respect grew.

In 1973, the October War and subsequent Arab oil embargo shocked global markets and sent fuel prices soaring. While the embargo strained relations, it also underscored Saudi Arabia’s central role in global energy stability. From then on, Washington viewed Riyadh not just as an oil supplier, but as a geopolitical partner essential to maintaining balance in the Middle East.

The Cold War further strengthened the relationship. Saudi Arabia’s moderate policy and anti-communist stance made it a dependable ally. The partnership was tested and reinforced through regional crises, including the Iranian Revolution (1979), the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait (1990).