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Oil Rises on Prospects of Wider Middle East War, Firmer Global Supply Caps Gains

A pumpjack extracts oil in the Inglewood Oil Field in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
A pumpjack extracts oil in the Inglewood Oil Field in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
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Oil Rises on Prospects of Wider Middle East War, Firmer Global Supply Caps Gains

A pumpjack extracts oil in the Inglewood Oil Field in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
A pumpjack extracts oil in the Inglewood Oil Field in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)

Oil prices rose on Thursday as the prospect of a widening Middle East conflict that could disrupt crude oil flows from the key exporting region overshadowed a stronger global supply outlook.
Brent crude futures gained 80 cents, or 1.08%, to $74.7 a barrel as of 0405 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 85 cents, or 1.21%, to $70.95.
"Following the initial jitters from geopolitical risks in the Middle East, we have seen some calm return to global markets, but of course, with market participants still keeping a side-eye on any upcoming Israeli response," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.
"The question for oil now is whether Iran's energy infrastructure will be in Israel's crosshairs," said Yeap.
Israel bombed central Beirut in the early hours of Thursday, killing at least six people, after its forces suffered their deadliest day on the Lebanese front in a year of clashes against Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, reported Reuters.
The strike comes a day after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in an escalation of hostilities, which have seeped out of Israel and occupied Palestinian territories into Lebanon and Syria.
"From here, it's a waiting game to see what the Israeli response will be and I suspect that comes after the conclusion of the Rosh Hashanah holiday tomorrow," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
"I doubt that Israel will target Iranian oil infrastructure, as such a move would likely drive oil prices towards $80, which would be frowned upon by Israel's allies, who are making strides against inflation," Sycamore said.
Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels to 417 million barrels in the week ended on Sept. 27, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel draw.
"Swelling US inventories added evidence that the market is well supplied and can withstand any disruptions," ANZ analysts said in a note.
Some investors remained unfazed as global crude supplies have yet to be disrupted by unrest in the key producing region, and spare OPEC capacity tempered worries.
"After Iran's attack, prices may stay elevated or remain more volatile for a little longer, but there's enough production, there's enough supply in the world," chief executive officer of East Daley Analytics, Jim Simpson, told Reuters.
OPEC has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for a full loss of Iranian supply if Israel knocks out that country's facilities.
"The effectively available spare capacity might be much lower if renewed attacks on energy infrastructure on countries in the region happen," said Giovanni Staunovo, a UBS analyst.

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US to Stop Collecting Tariffs Deemed Illegal by Supreme Court on Tuesday

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 20: Shipping containers stand stacked while others rest on truck transport chassis at the Port of Los Angeles on February 20, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 20: Shipping containers stand stacked while others rest on truck transport chassis at the Port of Los Angeles on February 20, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
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US to Stop Collecting Tariffs Deemed Illegal by Supreme Court on Tuesday

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 20: Shipping containers stand stacked while others rest on truck transport chassis at the Port of Los Angeles on February 20, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 20: Shipping containers stand stacked while others rest on truck transport chassis at the Port of Los Angeles on February 20, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP

The US Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday, more than three days after the Supreme Court declared the duties illegal.

The agency said in a message to shippers on its Cargo Systems ‌Messaging Service (CSMS) ‌that it will de-activate all tariff ‌codes ⁠associated with President ⁠Donald Trump's prior IEEPA-related orders as of Tuesday.

The IEEPA tariff collection halt coincides with Trump's imposition of a new, 15% global tariff under a different legal authority to replace the ones struck down by the Supreme ⁠Court on Friday.

CBP gave no reason why ‌it was continuing ‌to collect the tariffs at ports of entry days ‌after the Supreme Court's ruling, and its message ‌offered no information about possible refunds for importers.

The message noted that the collection halt does not affect any other tariffs imposed by Trump, including ‌those under the Section 232 national security statute and the Section 301 unfair ⁠trade practices ⁠statute.

"CBP will provide additional guidance to the trade community through CSMS messages as appropriate," the agency said.

Reuters reported on Friday that the Supreme Court decision made more than $175 billion in US Treasury revenue generated by the IEEPA tariffs subject to potential refunds, based on an estimate by Penn-Wharton Budget Model economists.

Their estimate from a ground-up forecasting model showed that IEEPA-based tariffs were generating more than $500 million per day in gross revenue.

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Gold Climbs to 3-week High as US Tariff Ruling Stokes Uncertainty

A vendor displays gold bracelets for sale in a gold shop at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul (AFP)
A vendor displays gold bracelets for sale in a gold shop at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul (AFP)
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Gold Climbs to 3-week High as US Tariff Ruling Stokes Uncertainty

A vendor displays gold bracelets for sale in a gold shop at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul (AFP)
A vendor displays gold bracelets for sale in a gold shop at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul (AFP)

Gold climbed to a three-week high on Monday as uncertainty stoked by the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down a vast swathe of President Donald Trump's tariffs pressured the dollar and pushed investors to the safety of bullion.

Spot gold climbed 1.1% to $5,158.29 per ounce by 0558 GMT, having earlier hit its highest since January 30. ‌US gold futures for ‌April delivery were up 2% at $5,180.40.

"The court's ‌tariff ⁠ruling has, aside ⁠from earning the ire of the US president, added another layer of uncertainty to global markets, with traders again turning to gold as a defensive play," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The US Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, ⁠handing the Republican president a stinging defeat in ‌a landmark ruling on Friday ‌with major implications for the global economy.

After the court ruling, Trump said ‌he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% ‌on US imports from all countries.

Wall Street futures and the dollar slid in Asia on Monday as murkiness around US tariffs revived the "sell America" trade, Reuters reported.

"Whether gold can claw its way back above $5,400 in the near-term ‌may rest on how long tariff uncertainty lingers and whether the US engages in military action ⁠against Iran," Waterer ⁠said.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear program in talks with the US in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, as it seeks to avert a US attack.

Meanwhile, data on Friday showed that underlying US inflation increased more than expected in December, and signs are pointing to a further acceleration in January, which would strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates before June.

Spot silver climbed 2.9% to $86.98 per ounce, a more than two-week high.
Spot platinum edged 0.1% higher to $2,158.55 per ounce, while palladium slipped 0.2% to $1,745.09.

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EU Says US Must Honor a Trade Deal after Court Blocks Trump Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, in Washington, D.C., US, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, in Washington, D.C., US, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
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EU Says US Must Honor a Trade Deal after Court Blocks Trump Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, in Washington, D.C., US, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, in Washington, D.C., US, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

The European Union's executive arm requested “full clarity” from the United States and asked its trade partner to fulfill its commitments after the US Supreme Court struck down some of President Donald Trump’s most sweeping tariffs.

Trump has lashed out at the court decision and said Saturday that he wants a global tariff of 15%, up from the 10% he announced a day earlier.

The European Commission said the current situation is not conducive to delivering "fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial” trans-Atlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides and spelled out in the EU-US Joint Statement of August 2025.

American and EU officials sealed a trade deal last year that imposes a 15% import tax on 70% of European goods exported to the United States. The European Commission handles trade for the 27 EU member countries.

A top EU lawmaker said on Sunday he will propose to the European Parliament negotiating team to put the ratifying process of the deal on pause.

“Pure tariff chaos on the part of the US administration,” Bernd Lange, the chair of Parliament’s international trade committee, wrote on social media. “No one can make sense of it anymore — only open questions and growing uncertainty for the EU and other US trading partners.”

The value of EU-US trade in goods and services amounted to 1.7 trillion euros ($2 trillion) in 2024, or an average of 4.6 billion euros a day, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat.

“A deal is a deal,” the European Commission said. “As the United States’ largest trading partner, the EU expects the US to honor its commitments set out in the Joint Statement — just as the EU stands by its commitments. EU products must continue to benefit from the most competitive treatment, with no increases in tariffs beyond the clear and all-inclusive ceiling previously agreed."

Jamieson Greer, Trump’s top trade negotiator, said in a CBS News interview Sunday morning that the US plans to stand by its trade deals and expects its partners to do the same.

He said he talked to his European counterpart this weekend and hasn’t heard anyone tell him the deal is off.

“The deals were not premised on whether or not the emergency tariff litigation would rise or fall,” Greer said. “I haven’t heard anyone yet come to me and say the deal’s off. They want to see how this plays out.”

Europe’s biggest exports to the US are pharmaceuticals, cars, aircraft, chemicals, medical instruments, and wine and spirits. Among the biggest US exports to the bloc are professional and scientific services like payment systems and cloud infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, aerospace products and cars.

“When applied unpredictably, tariffs are inherently disruptive, undermining confidence and stability across global markets and creating further uncertainty across international supply chains,” The Associated Press quoted the commission as saying.

As primarily a trading bloc, the EU has a powerful tool at its disposal to retaliate — the bloc’s Anti-Coercion Instrument. It includes a raft of measures for blocking or restricting trade and investment from countries found to be putting undue pressure on EU member nations or corporations.

The measures could include curtailing the export and import of goods and services, barring countries or companies from EU public tenders, or limiting foreign direct investment. In its most severe form, it would essentially close off access to the EU’s 450-million customer market and inflict billions of dollars of losses on US companies and the American economy.