IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that the Fund is closely monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon with "grave concern" and offered condolences for the loss of life.

"The potential for further escalation of the conflict heightens risks and uncertainty and could have significant economic ramifications for the region and beyond," Kozack said.

According to Reuters, she said it was too early to predict specific impacts on the global economy, but noted that economies in the region have already suffered greatly, especially in Gaza, where the civilian population "faces dire socioeconomic conditions, a humanitarian crisis and insufficient aid deliveries.

The IMF estimates that Gaza's GDP declined 86% in the first half of 2024, Kozack said, while the West Bank's first-half GDP likely declined 25%, with prospects of a further deterioration.

Israel's GDP contracted by about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after the conflict began, and the country has seen only a partial recovery in the first half of 2024, she added.
The IMF will update its economic projections for all countries and the global economy later in October when the global lender and World Bank hold their fall meetings in Washington.
"In Lebanon, the recent intensification of the conflict is exacerbating the country's already fragile macroeconomic and social situation," Kozack said, referring to Israel's airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The conflict has inflicted a heavy human toll on the country, and it has damaged physical infrastructure."
The main channels for the conflict to impact the global economy have been through higher commodity prices, including oil and grains, as well as increased shipping costs, as vessels avoid potential missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea, Kozack said. But commodity prices are currently lower than their peaks in the past year.
"I just emphasize once again that we're closely monitoring the situation, and this is a situation of great concern and very high uncertainty," she added.
Lebanon in 2022 reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a potential loan program, but there has been insufficient progress on required reforms, Kozack said.
"We are prepared to engage with Lebanon on a possible financing program when the situation is appropriate to do so, but it would necessitate that the actions can be taken and decisive policy measures can be taken," Kozack added. "We are currently supporting Lebanon through capacity development assistance and other areas where possible."
 

 

 

 



Saudi Arabia’s NIDLP Contributes $262 Billion to Non-Oil Economy

 A factory affiliated with Ma'aden Company, East Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden) 
 A factory affiliated with Ma'aden Company, East Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden) 
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Saudi Arabia’s NIDLP Contributes $262 Billion to Non-Oil Economy

 A factory affiliated with Ma'aden Company, East Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden) 
 A factory affiliated with Ma'aden Company, East Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden) 

Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic diversification drive under Vision 2030 continues to deliver solid results, with the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program (NIDLP) reporting a significant contribution of $262 billion to the Kingdom’s non-oil GDP in 2024.

According to NIDLP’s annual report, the program’s activities contributed 986 billion Saudi riyals ($263 billion), representing 39% of the non-oil GDP. This marks a rise from 949 billion riyals ($253 billion) in 2023. Overall, non-oil activities accounted for about 55% of the Kingdom’s total GDP.

The report highlights substantial growth in core NIDLP sectors. The manufacturing sector expanded by 4%, while mining, transportation, and storage sectors saw a 5% increase.

Non-oil exports surged to 514 billion riyals ($137 billion), reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year increase. These exports included 217 billion riyals ($58 billion) in goods, 91 billion riyals ($24.3 billion) in re-exports, and 207 billion riyals ($55.2 billion) in service exports. Among the leading manufactured exports were chemical products at 78.5 billion riyals ($20.9 billion), metals and metal products at 23.3 billion riyals ($6.2 billion), food and beverages at 10.5 billion riyals ($2.8 billion), and electrical equipment exports reaching 42.9 billion riyals ($11.4 billion).

Employment in sectors under the NIDLP umbrella reached 2.43 million workers in 2024, with 508,000 new jobs created, 81,000 of which were taken up by Saudi nationals.

Private sector investment in NIDLP industries totaled 665 billion riyals ($177.3 billion). The Saudi Industrial Development Fund approved loans worth 198 billion riyals ($52.8 billion), while the Saudi Export-Import Bank provided credit facilities valued at 69.14 billion riyals ($18.4 billion).

By the end of 2024, the number of industrial facilities in the Kingdom reached 12,500, while ready-built factories totaled 1,511. Cumulative investments in industrial cities and special economic zones reached 1.412 trillion riyals ($376.5 billion).

Domestic military industries also recorded notable gains, with local sales totaling 34.32 billion riyals ($9.15 billion). The Kingdom continues to push for localization across value chains, including sectors like medical supplies, automotive manufacturing, energy products, and petrochemicals.

Saudi Arabia launched renewable energy projects with a combined capacity of 20 gigawatts in 2024. New solar power agreements were signed for an additional 3.7 GW, while 3.6 GW of new capacity was brought online. A record-low global price for wind energy was achieved, contributing to an annual reduction of 1.7 million tons in carbon emissions.

In the mining sector, exploration spending rose to 228 riyals ($60.8) per square kilometer. Competitive bidding for mining sites increased by 380% compared to the previous year. The sector is targeting a GDP contribution of 176 billion riyals ($46.9 billion) and the creation of 219,000 jobs by 2030.

Logistics continues to emerge as a strategic pillar of the Saudi economy. In 2024, the government issued 1,056 logistics licenses and expanded re-export centers from just 2 in 2019 to 23. Port utilization rose to 64%, while customs clearance times dropped to a mere two hours, strengthening Saudi Arabia’s bid to become a global logistics hub.

The program also exceeded key 2024 benchmarks. The localization rate of the defense industry reached 19.35%, surpassing the 12.5% target. Local content reached 1.23 trillion riyals ($328 billion), above the targeted 1.11 trillion riyals ($296 billion). Emerging industries recorded exports worth 135.6 billion riyals ($36.2 billion), with 3,100 final licenses issued, well above the target of 845 licenses.

The NIDLP currently oversees 284 initiatives, 163 of which have been completed, marking a 57% completion rate. This reflects the program’s strong progress in driving forward Vision 2030’s industrial and economic goals.