Expert: Türkiye Anti-inflation Steps Don’t Go Far Enough

People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
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Expert: Türkiye Anti-inflation Steps Don’t Go Far Enough

People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters

Although Turkish inflation slowed in September, it is still raging out of control with the government avoiding difficult decisions that could help tackle it, experts told AFP.

Türkiye has experienced spiraling inflation the past two years, peaking at an annual rate of 85.5 percent in October 2022 and 75.45 percent in May.

The government claims it slowed to 49.4 percent in September.

But the figures are disputed by the ENAG group of independent economists who estimate that year-on-year inflation stood at 88.6 percent in September.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has said Ankara was hoping to bring inflation down to 17.6 percent by the end of 2025 and to “single digits” by 2026.

And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently hailed Türkiye’s success in “starting the process of permanent disinflation.”

“The hard times are behind us,” he said.

But economists interviewed by AFP said the surge in consumer prices in Türkiye had become “chronic” and is being exacerbated by some government policies.

“The current drop is simply due to a base effect. The price rises over the course of a month is still high, at 2.97 percent across Türkiye and 3.9 percent in Istanbul.

“You can’t call this a success story,” said Mehmet Sisman, economics professor at Istanbul’s Marmara University.

Spurning conventional economic practice of raising interest rates to curb inflation, Erdogan has long defended a policy of lowering rates. That has sent the lira sliding, further fueling inflation.

But after his reelection in May 2023, he gave Türkiye’s Central Bank free rein to raise its main interest rate from 8.5 to 50 percent between June 2023 and March 2024.

The central bank’s rate remained unchanged in September for the sixth consecutive month.

“The fight against inflation revolves around the priorities of the financial sector. As a result, it is done indirectly and generates uncertainty,” explained Erinc Yeldan, economics professor at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.

But raising interest rates alone is not enough to steady inflation without addressing massive budget deficits, according to Yakup Kucukkale, an economics professor at Karadeniz Technical University.

He pointed to Türkiye’s record budget deficit of 129.6 billion lira (3.45 billion euros).

“Simsek says this is due to expenditure linked to the reconstruction in regions hit by the February 2023 earthquake,” he said of the disaster that killed more than 53,000 people.

“But the real black hole is due to the costly public-private partnership contracts,” he said, referring to infrastructure contracts which critics say are often awarded to firms close to Erdogan’s government.

Such contracts cover construction and management of everything from motorways and bridges to hospitals and airports, and are often accompanied by generous guarantees such as state compensation in the event they are underused.

“We should question these contracts, which are a burden on the budget because this compensation is indexed to the dollar or the euro,” said Kucukkale.

Anti-inflation measures also tend to impact low-income households at a time when the minimum wage hasn’t been raised since January, he said.

“But these people already have little purchasing power. To lower demand, such measures must target higher-income groups, but there is hardly anything affecting them,” he said.



Egypt Govt Pledges Wage Hikes, Relief for Citizens

 A woman prepares traditional Egyptian butter cookies known as "Kahk", to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan in Cairo, Egypt, March 23, 2025. (Reuters)
A woman prepares traditional Egyptian butter cookies known as "Kahk", to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan in Cairo, Egypt, March 23, 2025. (Reuters)
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Egypt Govt Pledges Wage Hikes, Relief for Citizens

 A woman prepares traditional Egyptian butter cookies known as "Kahk", to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan in Cairo, Egypt, March 23, 2025. (Reuters)
A woman prepares traditional Egyptian butter cookies known as "Kahk", to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan in Cairo, Egypt, March 23, 2025. (Reuters)

The Egyptian government has pledged to improve wages and ease the financial burden on citizens by raising the minimum wage to 7,000 Egyptian pounds (1 USD = 50.45 EGP in banks) starting from the new fiscal year in July 2025.

In its proposed budget for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, the government allocated an 18.1% increase in wage provisions, totaling 671 billion pounds to fund the new salary increases.

This includes a 10% increase in the periodic allowance for civil service law employees and a 15% increase for non-civil service employees, with a minimum increase of 150 pounds per month, according to Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk's statement on Monday.

The government measures also include raising the “cost of living allowance” from 600 to 1,000 pounds and increasing the additional incentive by 300 pounds across all job grades.

This will result in a minimum monthly salary increase of 1,100 pounds for the lowest job grade, boosting overall wages.

While welcoming the increase in the minimum wage, Samira Al-Jazzar, a member of the parliamentary plan and budget committee, called on the government to take further steps to ensure citizens benefit from the wage hikes.

She stressed the need to regulate markets and implement strict measures against price manipulators.

Al-Jazzar expressed concerns about potential price hikes, which could lead to a rise in inflation again.

She told Asharq Al-Awsat that the government should have pursued multiple strategies to address this issue.

The lawmaker also emphasized the importance of expanding production, which she believes would gradually reduce prices.

Economic expert Karim Al-Omda told Asharq Al-Awsat that the new wage increases are a preemptive move by the government to mitigate public anger over expected rises in fuel and service prices.

The government plans to raise fuel prices three times by the end of this year as part of a fuel subsidy reduction strategy under the economic reform program agreed with the International Monetary Fund, which secured a $12 billion loan, according to statements from Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly.

Al-Omda urged the government to accelerate improvements in the education and healthcare sectors to genuinely enhance citizens' lives.

He highlighted the urgency of speeding up the implementation of the "comprehensive health insurance" system and making substantial reforms to the education system.

The Ministry of Finance has pledged to allocate the necessary funds to hire over 75,000 teachers, 30,000 doctors, and 10,000 other personnel in various government sectors in the upcoming fiscal year.