US, China to Hold Ice-breaker Trade Talks in Geneva on Saturday

FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
TT

US, China to Hold Ice-breaker Trade Talks in Geneva on Saturday

FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China's economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy.
News of the meeting first announced by Washington late Tuesday sent US equity index futures higher, while stock markets in China and Hong Kong followed suit during Asian trading on Wednesday.
The talks come after weeks of escalating tensions that have seen duties on goods imports between the world's two largest economies soar well beyond 100%, amounting to what Bessent on Tuesday described as the equivalent of a trade embargo.
The impasse, alongside US President Donald Trump's decision last month to slap sweeping duties on dozens of other countries, has upended supply chains, roiled financial markets and stoked fears of a sharp downturn in global growth.
The negotiating teams convening in Geneva are expected to discuss reductions to the broader tariffs, two sources familiar with the planning told Reuters. The two sides are also expected to discuss duties on specific products, US export controls and Trump's decision to end de minimis exemptions on low-value imports, one of the sources said.
China's State Council did not immediately reply to a faxed request for comment.
"My sense is this will be about de-escalation," Bessent told Fox News after the announcement. "We've got to de-escalate before we can move forward."
A Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson later confirmed that China had agreed to meet the US envoys.
"On the basis of fully considering global expectations, China's interests, and the appeals of US industry and consumers, China has decided to re-engage the US," the Chinese statement said.
"There is an old Chinese saying: Listen to what is said, and watch what is done. ... If (the US) says one thing but then does another, or attempts to use talks as a cover to continue coercion and blackmail, China will never agree."
This is the first meeting between senior Chinese and US officials since US Senator Steve Daines met Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in March.
Beijing has largely adopted a fiery rhetoric as tensions with Washington have ratcheted up, repeatedly saying it would not engage in negotiations unless the tariffs were withdrawn.
Signaling a change in tack, however, China's commerce ministry on Friday said it was "evaluating" an offer from Washington to hold talks.
The stakes for China's economy are high, with its vast factory sector already bearing the brunt of the tariffs. Many analysts have downgraded their 2025 economic growth forecast for the Asian giant, while investment bank Nomura has warned the trade war could cost China up to 16 million jobs.
China's central bank on Wednesday announced fresh monetary stimulus, flagging rate cuts and a liquidity injection into the banking system aimed at countering the economic impact of the duties.
Analysts described the move as measured and tactical.
"There’s almost certainly also an element of signaling to the US government ahead of the upcoming meeting," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.
"The message is that Chinese officials are not panicked or scrambling to shore up economic growth, and they’re not going to be negotiating from a position of weakness."
MIXED SIGNALS
US officials have held a flurry of meetings with trading partners since the president announced a 10% tariff on most countries on April 2, along with higher tariff rates that will kick in on July 9, barring separate trade agreements.
Trump has also imposed 25% tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, 25% levies on Canada and Mexico, and 145% tariffs on China, with further duties expected on pharmaceuticals in coming weeks.
China retaliated by boosting its tariffs on US goods to 125%. The European Union is also readying countermeasures.
While Saturday's talks are aimed at easing tensions, it remains unclear how substantive they could prove, said Bo Zhengyuan, partner at Shanghai-based policy consultancy Plenum. "For more comprehensive geopolitical negotiations to be possible, tariffs would need to be lowered first - the key is whether both sides can agree on the extent and scope of tariff rollbacks, as well as on follow-up talks," Bo said.
Bessent told Fox News the two sides would work out during their meeting on Saturday "what to talk about."
"Look, we have a shared interest that this isn't sustainable," Bessent said. "And 145%, 125% is the equivalent of an embargo. We don't want to decouple. What we want is fair trade."
Trump and his trade team have sent mixed signals over progress in talks with major trading partners rushing to cement agreements with Washington and avoid the imposition of hefty import taxes on their goods.
Bessent told lawmakers earlier in the day that the Trump administration was negotiating with 17 major trading partners and could announce trade agreements with some of them as early as this week.
Trump told reporters before a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that he and top administration officials will review potential trade deals over the next two weeks to decide which ones to accept.
US and Britain have made progress towards a trade deal, a British official said, while Bessent has said many other countries including Indonesia have made good offers to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, such as subsidies.
Trump's moves on tariffs, which he says are aimed in part at reducing the US trade deficit, are so far having an opposite effect, with the gap hitting a record in March as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of the levies.
Notably, though, the US trade deficit with China narrowed sharply as the crushing levies Trump has imposed cut deeply into Chinese imports.



Oil Prices Rise 1% as Supply Risks Remain in Focus

The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
TT

Oil Prices Rise 1% as Supply Risks Remain in Focus

The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian

Oil prices rose over 1% on Friday as supply risks remained in focus despite the receding likelihood of a US military strike against Iran.

Brent crude was up 84 cents, or 1.3%, to $64.60 a barrel at 1413 GMT, on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. US West Texas Intermediate was up 80 cents, or 1.4%, to $59.99.

At those levels, Brent was on course for a 2% weekly gain and WTI for a 1.4% gain. Brent ⁠was up a little more than $1 at its intraday peak as investors continue to weigh the potential for supply outages should tensions in the Middle East escalate, Reuters reported.

"While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, they have not disappeared, and market participants remain concerned about potential supply disruptions," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Both benchmarks hit multi-month highs this week ⁠after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signaled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4% on Thursday as Trump said that Tehran's crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.

"Above all, there are worries about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in the event of an escalation, through which around a quarter of seaborne oil supplies flow," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

"Should there be signs of a sustained easing on ⁠this front, developments in Venezuela are likely to return to the spotlight, with oil that was recently sanctioned or blocked gradually flowing onto the world market."

Meanwhile, analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.

"Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

"Unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67."


Gold Eases as Strong US Data, Easing Geopolitical Tensions Sap Momentum

FILE PHOTO: A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo
TT

Gold Eases as Strong US Data, Easing Geopolitical Tensions Sap Momentum

FILE PHOTO: A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo

Gold prices ticked lower on Friday, extending losses from the previous session, as stronger-than-expected US economic data and easing geopolitical tensions in Iran hampered bullion's bullish momentum.

Spot gold eased 0.3% to $4,603.02 per ounce by 0918 GMT. However, the metal is poised for a weekly gain of about 2% after scaling a record peak of $4,642.72 on Wednesday. US gold futures for February delivery edged 0.4% lower to $4,606.70.

"There was ‌a lot of ‌momentum in the (gold) market, which seems to ‌have ⁠faded slightly ‌at the moment....the economic news flow out of the US has been causing some headwinds rather than tailwinds as of late, which is reflected in a somewhat stronger US dollar," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

The US dollar hovered near a six-week high on the back of positive economic data on Thursday showing initial jobless claims dropped 9,000 ⁠to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 last week, below economists' forecast of 215,000.

A firmer ‌dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for overseas ‍buyers. On the geopolitical front, people ‍inside Iran, reached by Reuters on Wednesday and Thursday, said ‍protests appeared to have abated since Monday.

Safe-haven gold tends to do well during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, gold demand in India stayed muted this week as prices hit record highs again, taking the shine off retail buying, while bullion traded at a premium in China as demand remained steady ahead of the Lunar ⁠New Year.

Spot silver shed 1.1% to $91.33 per ounce, although it was headed for a weekly gain of over 14% after hitting an all-time high of $93.57 in the previous session. "The silver market seemed very determined to reach the $100 per ounce threshold before moving lower again....speculative traders are keeping an eye on that level even though it would not be sustainable in the medium to longer-term," Menke added.

Spot platinum dropped 2.7% to $2,345.78 per ounce, and was set to gain more than 3.1% for the week so far. Palladium lost 2.6% to $1,755.04 per ‌ounce, after hitting a more than one-week low earlier, and was headed for a weekly loss of 3.3%.


IMF's Growth Forecasts to Show Resilience to Global Trade Shocks, Georgieva Says

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
TT

IMF's Growth Forecasts to Show Resilience to Global Trade Shocks, Georgieva Says

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

The International Monetary Fund's latest economic forecasts due next week will show the global economy's continued resilience to trade shocks and "fairly strong" growth, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters on Thursday.

In an interview during a visit to Kyiv to discuss the IMF's loan to Ukraine, Georgieva suggested the IMF could again revise its forecasts slightly upward as the World Bank did this week.

In October, the IMF edged its 2025 global GDP growth forecast higher to 3.2% from 3.0% in July as the drag from US tariffs was less than initially ‌feared. It kept ‌its 2026 global growth outlook unchanged at 3.1%.

Asked what ‌the ⁠January forecasts ‌would show after the upgrade in October, Georgieva said: "More of the same - that the world economy is remarkably resilient, that trade shock has not derailed global growth, that risks are more tilted to the downside, even if performance now is fairly strong."

The IMF is expected to release its World Economic Outlook update on January 19.

Georgieva said risks were focused on geopolitical tensions and rapid technological shifts. Things could turn out well, ⁠she said, but the global economy could also face significant financial distress if the huge resources flowing into ‌artificial intelligence did not result in promised productivity gains.

"We ‍are in a more unpredictable ‍world, and yet, quite a number of businesses and policymakers operate as if ‍the world hasn't changed."

Georgieva said she worried that many countries had failed to build up sufficient reserves to deal with any new shock that could occur. The IMF currently has 50 lending programs, a high number by historic standards, but was bracing for more countries to seek funds, she said.

The IMF chief said US economic performance had been "quite impressive" despite a raft of tariffs imposed by President Donald ⁠Trump last year on nearly every country in the world.

She said overall tariff levels were lower than initially threatened, and the US accounted for only about 13% to 14% of global trade. Most other countries had also refrained - at least so far - from imposing retaliatory measures, which had helped limit the impact of the wave of US tariffs.

She said inflation and macroeconomic conditions could still worsen, though, if the trade picture darkened.

Geopolitical factors were also clouding the outlook and now played a more significant role than in years past, said Georgieva, who took office in October 2019, just months before the COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020.

"Regrettably, since I took ‌this job (in 2019), there has been one shock after another after another," she said.