US, China to Hold Ice-breaker Trade Talks in Geneva on Saturday

FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
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US, China to Hold Ice-breaker Trade Talks in Geneva on Saturday

FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., US, May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China's economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy.
News of the meeting first announced by Washington late Tuesday sent US equity index futures higher, while stock markets in China and Hong Kong followed suit during Asian trading on Wednesday.
The talks come after weeks of escalating tensions that have seen duties on goods imports between the world's two largest economies soar well beyond 100%, amounting to what Bessent on Tuesday described as the equivalent of a trade embargo.
The impasse, alongside US President Donald Trump's decision last month to slap sweeping duties on dozens of other countries, has upended supply chains, roiled financial markets and stoked fears of a sharp downturn in global growth.
The negotiating teams convening in Geneva are expected to discuss reductions to the broader tariffs, two sources familiar with the planning told Reuters. The two sides are also expected to discuss duties on specific products, US export controls and Trump's decision to end de minimis exemptions on low-value imports, one of the sources said.
China's State Council did not immediately reply to a faxed request for comment.
"My sense is this will be about de-escalation," Bessent told Fox News after the announcement. "We've got to de-escalate before we can move forward."
A Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson later confirmed that China had agreed to meet the US envoys.
"On the basis of fully considering global expectations, China's interests, and the appeals of US industry and consumers, China has decided to re-engage the US," the Chinese statement said.
"There is an old Chinese saying: Listen to what is said, and watch what is done. ... If (the US) says one thing but then does another, or attempts to use talks as a cover to continue coercion and blackmail, China will never agree."
This is the first meeting between senior Chinese and US officials since US Senator Steve Daines met Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in March.
Beijing has largely adopted a fiery rhetoric as tensions with Washington have ratcheted up, repeatedly saying it would not engage in negotiations unless the tariffs were withdrawn.
Signaling a change in tack, however, China's commerce ministry on Friday said it was "evaluating" an offer from Washington to hold talks.
The stakes for China's economy are high, with its vast factory sector already bearing the brunt of the tariffs. Many analysts have downgraded their 2025 economic growth forecast for the Asian giant, while investment bank Nomura has warned the trade war could cost China up to 16 million jobs.
China's central bank on Wednesday announced fresh monetary stimulus, flagging rate cuts and a liquidity injection into the banking system aimed at countering the economic impact of the duties.
Analysts described the move as measured and tactical.
"There’s almost certainly also an element of signaling to the US government ahead of the upcoming meeting," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.
"The message is that Chinese officials are not panicked or scrambling to shore up economic growth, and they’re not going to be negotiating from a position of weakness."
MIXED SIGNALS
US officials have held a flurry of meetings with trading partners since the president announced a 10% tariff on most countries on April 2, along with higher tariff rates that will kick in on July 9, barring separate trade agreements.
Trump has also imposed 25% tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, 25% levies on Canada and Mexico, and 145% tariffs on China, with further duties expected on pharmaceuticals in coming weeks.
China retaliated by boosting its tariffs on US goods to 125%. The European Union is also readying countermeasures.
While Saturday's talks are aimed at easing tensions, it remains unclear how substantive they could prove, said Bo Zhengyuan, partner at Shanghai-based policy consultancy Plenum. "For more comprehensive geopolitical negotiations to be possible, tariffs would need to be lowered first - the key is whether both sides can agree on the extent and scope of tariff rollbacks, as well as on follow-up talks," Bo said.
Bessent told Fox News the two sides would work out during their meeting on Saturday "what to talk about."
"Look, we have a shared interest that this isn't sustainable," Bessent said. "And 145%, 125% is the equivalent of an embargo. We don't want to decouple. What we want is fair trade."
Trump and his trade team have sent mixed signals over progress in talks with major trading partners rushing to cement agreements with Washington and avoid the imposition of hefty import taxes on their goods.
Bessent told lawmakers earlier in the day that the Trump administration was negotiating with 17 major trading partners and could announce trade agreements with some of them as early as this week.
Trump told reporters before a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that he and top administration officials will review potential trade deals over the next two weeks to decide which ones to accept.
US and Britain have made progress towards a trade deal, a British official said, while Bessent has said many other countries including Indonesia have made good offers to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, such as subsidies.
Trump's moves on tariffs, which he says are aimed in part at reducing the US trade deficit, are so far having an opposite effect, with the gap hitting a record in March as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of the levies.
Notably, though, the US trade deficit with China narrowed sharply as the crushing levies Trump has imposed cut deeply into Chinese imports.



Saudi Bonds: A Safe Haven in Emerging Markets

Riyadh (SPA)
Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi Bonds: A Safe Haven in Emerging Markets

Riyadh (SPA)
Riyadh (SPA)

As global investors remain cautious about debt in emerging economies, Saudi Arabia is increasingly seen as a stable and attractive investment destination. This confidence stems from its strong financial foundation and ambitious economic transformation plans.

Karine Kheirallah, Head of Investment Strategy and Research for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at State Street Global Advisors, one of the world’s largest asset managers, highlighted Saudi Arabia’s compelling macroeconomic story. She noted that while many countries struggle with high debt and rising servicing costs, Saudi Arabia maintains a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of 29.9% as of December 2024. Even with planned increases to support Vision 2030 investments, it is expected to remain well below global averages.

This fiscal discipline positions Saudi Arabia as a reliable sovereign bond issuer within emerging markets. Kheirallah expects the Kingdom to see steady economic growth in the coming years, led by structural reforms and non-oil sector investments. Though growth may not match the pace of some emerging markets, it is likely to outperform many advanced economies, making Saudi bonds appealing for investors seeking long-term value and stability.

In the first quarter of 2025, Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 3.4% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 4.9% expansion in non-oil sectors, which contributed significantly to real GDP growth.

Vision 2030 plays a vital role in developing Saudi Arabia’s fixed-income market. Kheirallah explained that to finance major projects such as NEOM, both the government and the Public Investment Fund have expanded bond and sukuk issuances, including green financing. This has led to a more mature yield curve and improved price discovery across maturities.

The inclusion of Saudi dollar-denominated bonds in J.P. Morgan’s Emerging Markets Index in 2019 was a turning point, signaling global investor confidence. This move helped lay the groundwork for a more robust and sustainable debt market.

Saudi bonds also benefit from strong credit ratings. Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia to A1 in November 2024, and S&P raised its rating to A+ in March 2025. These reflect the country’s financial strength and effective reforms.

While public debt is rising, Kheirallah emphasized it remains manageable. However, sustaining fiscal health will depend on continued diversification and growing non-oil revenues. Maintaining high credit ratings, she stressed, will require ongoing financial discipline and successful reform implementation.