Gulf Markets Decline Amid Escalating Geopolitical Tensions in the Region

Traders monitor screens displaying stock information on the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha. (Reuters)
Traders monitor screens displaying stock information on the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha. (Reuters)
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Gulf Markets Decline Amid Escalating Geopolitical Tensions in the Region

Traders monitor screens displaying stock information on the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha. (Reuters)
Traders monitor screens displaying stock information on the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha. (Reuters)

Most stock markets in the Gulf region closed lower on Sunday, amid fears that increasing geopolitical tensions could lead to a broader conflict in the region.

Israeli airstrikes shook southern Beirut on Friday night and into the early hours of Sunday, marking the heaviest bombardment of the Lebanese capital since Israel escalated its campaign against Hezbollah last month.

The Saudi index fell by 1.6%, hitting its lowest level since September 11, driven by declines in Al-Tayseer (TALCO) Group shares, which dropped 5.1%, and Al Rajhi Bank, which fell by 4.8%. Meanwhile, Aramco, the heaviest-weighted stock on the index, slipped by 0.18% to reach SAR 27.

The Qatari index also lost 0.5%, as Qatar Fuel Company shares fell by 2.3%. The Kuwaiti stock market index declined by 1%, and Bahrain’s general index fell by 0.13%.

On the other hand, some Arab markets managed to recover from the losses they incurred last week. The Egyptian stock market index rose by 1.24%, while the Casablanca index posted a slight gain of 0.09%, and the Muscat index increased by 0.16%.

Similar events in April led to a wave of selling of stocks and other high-risk assets, but markets rebounded within days as concerns over the escalation of the conflict subsided.



Oil Pares Gains after Strongest Weekly Rise in Over a Year

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack drills oil crude from the Yates Oilfield in West Texas’s Permian Basin, as a 1.5MW GE wind turbine from the Desert Sky Wind Farm is seen in the distance, near Iraan, Texas, US, March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack drills oil crude from the Yates Oilfield in West Texas’s Permian Basin, as a 1.5MW GE wind turbine from the Desert Sky Wind Farm is seen in the distance, near Iraan, Texas, US, March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
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Oil Pares Gains after Strongest Weekly Rise in Over a Year

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack drills oil crude from the Yates Oilfield in West Texas’s Permian Basin, as a 1.5MW GE wind turbine from the Desert Sky Wind Farm is seen in the distance, near Iraan, Texas, US, March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack drills oil crude from the Yates Oilfield in West Texas’s Permian Basin, as a 1.5MW GE wind turbine from the Desert Sky Wind Farm is seen in the distance, near Iraan, Texas, US, March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo

Oil prices pared gains in early trade on Monday after charting their biggest weekly rise in over a year on Friday amid mounting threats of a region-wide war in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures fell 43 cents, or 0.5%, to $77.62 per barrel by around 0015 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $74.03 per barrel, according to Reuters.
Last week, the Brent contract gained over 8% on a weekly basis and the most in a week since January 2023, while the WTI contract gained 9.1% week-on-week, the most since March 2023.
"Profit-taking might have been the cause of the retreat after the price surge last week," said independent market analyst Tina Teng.
"However, the oil market will likely continue to face upside pressure due to fears of Israel's retaliation response to Iran. Geopolitical tensions are now playing a key role in shaping the market trend."
Israel bombed Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip on Sunday ahead of the one-year anniversary of Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks on Israel that triggered war. Its defense minister also said all options were open for retaliation against Iran.
That came after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel last week in response to Israel's operations in Lebanon and Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israeli police said early on Monday that Hezbollah rockets had hit Israel's third-largest city of Haifa.
Despite the rally in oil prices last week, the impact of this conflict on oil supply will be relatively small, said ANZ Research in a Monday client note.
"We see a direct attack on Iran's oil facilities as the least likely response among Israel's options. Such a move would upset its international partners, while a disruption to Iran's oil revenue would likely leave it with little to lose, potentially provoking a more ferocious response," it said.
"Moreover, we have seen a diminished impact of geopolitical events on oil supply. This has led to a significantly smaller geopolitical risk premium being applied to oil markets in recent years, and OPEC's 7 million barrels per day of spare capacity provides a further buffer."
OPEC and its allies including Russia and Kazakhstan have millions of barrels of spare capacity, as it has been cutting production in recent years to support prices amid weak global demand.
At its last meeting on Oct. 2, OPEC and its allies, or OPEC+, kept its oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start raising production from December.