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Israel Central Bank Holds Rates

The Bank of Israel building in Jerusalem. Reuters
The Bank of Israel building in Jerusalem. Reuters
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Israel Central Bank Holds Rates

The Bank of Israel building in Jerusalem. Reuters
The Bank of Israel building in Jerusalem. Reuters

The Bank of Israel kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for a sixth straight meeting, but raised the prospect of future rate increases should armed conflict on two fronts push inflation up more than expected.
The central bank - also worried about Israel's investor risk premium which has risen since the Gaza war began on Oct. 7 last year - left its benchmark rate at 4.50%.
"In view of the continuing war, the Monetary Committee’s policy is focusing on stabilizing the markets and reducing uncertainty, alongside price stability and supporting economic activity," the central bank said in a statement.
Policymakers expressed worries over rising inflation stemming largely from supply constraints related to the war with Hamas in Gaza and accelerating fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon, saying the increase in the pace of inflation is broad, Reuters reported.
Israel's annual inflation rate rose to 3.6% in August from 3.2% in the previous month, moving further above the government's 1%-3% target range after falling as low as 2.5% in February.
Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron told a news conference after the decision that the future direction of interest rates was "data dependent.”
Prior to the war, rates - which rose rapidly in 2022 and 2023 - were expected to decline this year. The central bank had reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in January but it has been on hold since due to the war, rising inflation pressures, a widening budget deficit and the higher risk premium.
Some investors have begun to speculate that inflation will continue to rise and possibly push the central bank to raising rates again.
"If inflation rises at a faster rate than we predicted ... we can definitely raise the interest rate," Yaron said, noting the inflation rate is expected to gain in near term.
Yaron said the current level of rates is believed to be restrictive enough to ultimately bring inflation back to within its target.
He added that in the current period Israel's uncertainty is far greater than what the US and European central banks - which have started to loosen policy - are experiencing.
The decision to hold rates steady came despite the bank's research department slashing its forecast for Israeli economic growth this year to 0.5% from a previous estimate of 1.5%.
The economy grew an annualized 0.7% in the second quarter, slowing markedly from a 17.2% pace in the first quarter.
All 14 analysts polled by Reuters had expected no rates move on Wednesday.
The central bank's researchers raised their inflation forecast for the coming year to 3.2% from 3.0%, while the interest rate is projected at its current 4.5% level, rather than 4.25% predicted in July.
The staff raised their expectation for Israel's 2024 budget deficit to 7.2% of gross domestic product from 6.6% due to the extra funds needed to finance the military conflicts. They see a 4.9% of GDP deficit in 2025.
"Approval of a responsible budget for 2025 is an essential component in strengthening the international markets’ trust and maintaining the economy’s robustness," Yaron said.
The budget's passage has been delayed due to political infighting.
The rates decision was initially slated for Monday but was moved to not coincide with the Oct. 7 anniversary of the start of the Gaza war.

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China Hits Back at US and Will Raise Tariffs on American Goods from 84% to 125%

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura
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China Hits Back at US and Will Raise Tariffs on American Goods from 84% to 125%

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura

China announced Friday that it will raise tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125% — the latest salvo in an escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies that has rattled markets and raised fears of a global slowdown.

While US President Donald Trump paused import taxes this week for other countries, he raised tariffs on China and they now total 145%. China has denounced the policy as “economic bullying" and promised countermeasures. The new tariffs begin Saturday.

Washington's repeated raising of tariffs “will become a joke in the history of the world economy,” a Chinese Finance Ministry spokesman said in a statement announcing the new tariffs. “However, if the US insists on continuing to substantially infringe on China’s interests, China will resolutely counter and fight to the end.”

China’s Commerce Ministry said it would file another lawsuit with the World Trade Organization against the US tariffs.

“There are no winners in a tariff war,” Chinese leader Xi Jinping said during a meeting with the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, according to a readout from state broadcaster CCTV. “For more than 70 years, China has always relied on itself ... and hard work for development, never relying on favors from anyone, and not fearing any unreasonable suppression.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday said China stands firm against Trump’s tariffs not only to defend its own rights and interests but also to “safeguard the common interests of the international community to ensure that humanity is not dragged back into a jungle world where might makes right.”

Wang made the remarks when he met Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Beijing. Wang said China will “work together with other countries to jointly resist all retrogressive actions in the world.”

Trump's on-again, off-again measures have caused alarm in stock and bond markets and led some to warn that the US could be headed for a recession. There was some relief when Trump paused the tariffs for most countries — but concerns remain since the US and China are the world's No. 1 and No. 2 economies, respectively.

“The risk that this escalating trade war tips the world into a recession is rising as the two largest and most powerful countries in the world continue to punch back with higher and higher tariffs,” Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital markets, wrote Friday. “No one truly knows when this will end.”

Chinese tariffs will affect goods like soybeans, aircrafts and their parts and drugs — all among the country's major imports from the US Beijing, meanwhile, suspended sorghum, poultry and bonemeal imports from some American companies last week, and put more export controls on rare earth minerals, critical for various technologies.

The United States' top imports from China, meanwhile, include electronics, like computers and cell phones, industrial equipment and toys — and consumers and businesses are likely to see prices rise on those products, with tariffs now at 145%.

Trump announced on Wednesday that China would face 125% tariffs, but he did not include a 20% tariff on China tied to its role in fentanyl production.

White House officials hope the import taxes will create more manufacturing jobs by bringing production back to the United States — a politically risky trade-off that could take years to materialize, if at all.