China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.



Oil Drops for Third Day on OPEC+ Output Increase, Trump Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
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Oil Drops for Third Day on OPEC+ Output Increase, Trump Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo

Oil prices declined for a third day on Wednesday, as investors worried about OPEC+ plans to proceed with output increases in April, and US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico escalated trade tensions.

Brent futures fell $1.02, or 1.44%, to $70.02 a barrel by 1149 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.33, or 1.95%, to $66.93 a barrel.

The contracts settled near multi-month lows the previous day, weighed down by expectations the US tariffs and counter-tariffs by the affected countries will slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand, Reuters reported.

"The imposition of tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico by the US sparked swift reprisals from each nation that increased concerns over a slowdown in economic growth and the consequent impact on energy demand," Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said.

Canada and China retaliated immediately to Trump's tariffs on Tuesday, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the country would respond, without giving details.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022, further pressuring crude prices.

The group will make a small increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, the first step in planned monthly increases to unwind its nearly 6 million bpd of cuts, equal to almost 6% of global demand.

"There is a bit of a concern in the market that the OPEC+ decision is the start of a series of more monthly supply additions, but the statement from OPEC+ reiterates an approach in bringing back barrels only if the market can absorb them," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley Research said it was possible OPEC+ would deliver only a few monthly increases, rather than fully unwind the cuts.

The Trump administration also said on Tuesday it was ending a licensce the US granted to US oil producer Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil.

The decision puts 200,000 bpd of supply at risk, ING commodities strategists wrote in a note on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, US crude stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels in the week ended February 28, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Investors await government data on US stockpiles, due on Wednesday.