Hezbollah-Israel Conflict Threatens Lebanon’s Fragile Economy, Report Says

Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike on Khiam in southern Lebanon on October 29, 2024. (AFP)
Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike on Khiam in southern Lebanon on October 29, 2024. (AFP)
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Hezbollah-Israel Conflict Threatens Lebanon’s Fragile Economy, Report Says

Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike on Khiam in southern Lebanon on October 29, 2024. (AFP)
Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike on Khiam in southern Lebanon on October 29, 2024. (AFP)

Analysis from a humanitarian group working in Lebanon forecasts two scenarios in its report on the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, both predicting a severe economic contraction in Lebanon by early 2025.

Mercy Corps’ Lebanon Crisis Analysis Team says Israel’s continued strikes on suspected Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, without blocking key infrastructure, will still bring severe economic and humanitarian risks.

Lebanon’s economy could contract by 12.81%, or $2.305 billion by January 2025, with impacts hitting agriculture, manufacturing, and services hard in the South and Bekaa Valley.

Agriculture in South Lebanon, which drives 80% of its economy, may come to a halt, while factories face shutdowns, the report says. “The Bekaa Valley, responsible for 2% of national GDP, will see similar disruptions, with 70% of farmland under threat and many Syrian laborers fleeing,” it adds.

The service sector, particularly tourism, stands to lose $1.256 billion, potentially crippling a vital part of the economy.

If Israel imposes a stricter blockade and expands bombings to key infrastructure, Lebanon’s economic loss could rise to 21.9% of GDP, or $3.938 billion, according to the report.

Over 1.5 million people could be displaced, with political and intercommunal tensions intensifying as Shiites flee to diverse religious regions that are majority Christian, Druze or Sunni, the report adds.

Already, 1.2 million people have been displaced from villages in southern and eastern Lebanon as well as Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Lebanon, already enduring a five-year economic crisis marked by a severe currency collapse, had just begun showing signs of recovery before the war erupted.



Al-Khateeb: Saudi Arabia Plays Pivotal Role in Development of Responsible, Sustainable Global Tourism

Saudi Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Al-Khateeb: Saudi Arabia Plays Pivotal Role in Development of Responsible, Sustainable Global Tourism

Saudi Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb emphasized that Saudi Arabia plays a central role in leading the development of responsible and sustainable global tourism.

“During our presidency of the G20 in 2020, we emphasized the establishment of the G20 Tourism Working Group, which has since created a comprehensive framework to drive flourishing, inclusive tourism that prioritizes the environment and encourages cooperation among nations and with the private sector,” he said.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Khateeb discussed the recent G20 tourism meeting in Brazil, noting a report from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), sponsored by Saudi Arabia, which highlighted the ongoing impact of COVID-19, particularly on women and young workers.

“The study, covering 185 countries, showcased creative initiatives, including those in Saudi Arabia, that address these issues and provide inspiration for G20 members and beyond,” the minister remarked.

Saudi Arabia has achieved top global rankings, marking the highest growth in international tourist numbers and tourism revenue among G20 countries in 2024 compared to 2019, outperforming other countries based on available data.

The minister affirmed that tourism is a key driver in the transformation underway in Saudi Arabia as part of Vision 2030, which has opened the Kingdom to the world.

“With our private sector partners, we will have invested $800 billion in this sector by the end of the decade, creating some of the world’s most advanced, innovative cities, resorts, and cultural sites. These developments embrace sustainability, aiding Saudi Arabia in its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060,” he added.

He highlighted significant investments in infrastructure, including new and renovated airports, along with hosting major global sports and entertainment events.

“Our focus on tourism is driving notable economic, social, and cultural change. By the end of 2023, the tourism sector employed 925,500 people, a 62% increase compared to the end of 2019. Our investments in tourism destinations across the Kingdom are creating opportunities for both large and small communities,” he said.

Al-Khateeb stressed that tourism is a vital sector for the evolving Saudi economy, with preliminary estimates of its direct contribution to the Kingdom’s GDP at 4.4% in 2023, up from 3.6% in 2019. “Our goal is to reach 10% by 2030,” he said. “In 2023, we met our initial target of welcoming 100 million tourists to Saudi Arabia, seven years ahead of the 2030 goal, and we have now set a new target of 150 million tourists by the end of the decade.”

He noted that Saudi Arabia ranked 12th globally in 2023 in terms of international tourism revenue, rising 15 places since 2019, with tourists spending SAR141 billion ($38 billion).

Tourists benefit from investments in infrastructure and connectivity that make travel within Saudi Arabia easier and faster. The electronic visa program now covers 66 countries, facilitating smoother travel to the Kingdom.

“Saudi Arabia is at the forefront of integrating artificial intelligence in the tourism sector,” he continued. “In addition to designing customized experiences for tourists, Saudi Arabia recently hosted the Global AI Summit, a gathering of AI experts, policymakers, and influencers from around the world.”

The Minister reiterated Saudi Arabia’s commitment to ensuring a rewarding experience for pilgrims, with over SAR5.9 billion ($1.3 billion) invested in improving infrastructure at holy sites.

“We have introduced new tourist visa regulations and a smart Hajj identity, providing pilgrims with accessible information,” he added.

On Saudi Arabia’s role in transforming tourism into a driving force for inclusive development, Al-Khateeb said: “Tourism in Saudi Arabia is bringing about significant societal changes, creating opportunities, especially in empowering women and youth.”

By the end of 2023, women’s participation in the tourism sector reached 46%, with more than 925,000 employees, he underlined. The Ministry of Tourism has also launched initiatives investing over SAR375 million ($100 million) in human capital, in collaboration with top international colleges and schools to enhance the skills of Saudi trainees in the tourism sector.

He emphasized Saudi Arabia’s vision of tourism as a primary force for social change globally, promoting “greater tolerance, acceptance, and collaboration among the world’s peoples.”

Al-Khateeb anticipates significant growth in the travel and tourism sector over the next decade, with an estimated value of $16 trillion, accounting for 11.4% of the global economy, according to the WTTC.

He concluded by stating that Saudi Arabia is a global leader in achieving these goals, fostering partnerships between the public sector and governments worldwide, and encouraging knowledge sharing and innovation.

“We are proud of our pioneering work with various international organizations, including the G20, the United Nations World Tourism Organization, and the World Economic Forum, and we are committed to building a bright and lasting legacy for global tourism,” the minister stated.